I thought the opposition had a margin of more than two against the government. If so, one switch would not have changed the outcome. Can anyone put numbers on this equation?
Congressman Billybob
Someone may be able to give you more details but the switch is only part of the dynamic. There are independents who I believe supported the non-confidence votes last week but who are now wavering towards supporting the budget vote which would keep the Liberals in power. The Opposition needs to defeat at least one of the two budget votes tonight to force a "binding" non-confidence vote which even our media and PM couldn't ignore. If it ends up a tie, the Speaker votes and he is a Liberal so they win.
CB,
The margins in parliament if all members vote are as follows:
152 - Conservatives/Bloc Quebecois
152 - Liberals/NDP
2 - Independants
If the independants split, the speaker (Liberal appointee) will break the tie in favour of the government. So whoever wants to win has to woo BOTH independants. Luckily the Libs can't pull a Floriduh here and ask for a recount :D.
Now because of the Carolyn Parish effect (she is a registered Independant, but votes with the Liberals on everything anyway), if her appendicitis turns out to be true, then the conservatives only need one of the independants, which they will probably get. In any case, the minority government will not stand for more than 12 more months...and luckily very little of it will consist of governing because of the minority status of the government.
I'll be watching this very carefully all day.