Posted on 04/17/2005 10:44:32 PM PDT by Destro
World Powers in 2030? a shift in the balance of power continues
Those who grew up during the Cold War may have trouble keeping up with shifts among major world powers. Some still think that Russia will reemerge as a superpower, even though it is not even one the world's top 15 economic powers. One may dismiss Japan as a major military power, not realizing that it is the world's second largest economic power whose military spending exceeds that of China. The respected Economist magazine recently published: "World in Figures, 2004." Data has been extracted from this book to provide a brief comparison of world powers in 2004:
Population is one measure. While Western military analysts focus on material, manpower is critical. Providing AK-47s and RPGs to several million men creates a powerful force, albeit not one capable of major operations. Recall that a million Chinese foot soldiers fought the modern US Army to a stalemate in Korea, and thousands of illiterate Somalis mauled US Army Rangers in 1993. Today, the most populous nations are: #1 China; #2 India (which will surpass China by 2030); a distant #3 United States; #4 Indonesia; #5 Brazil. Pakistan is #6, just ahead of Russia. Bangladesh is #8, Japan at #9 and Nigeria at #10.
Gross Domestic Product is a measure of economic activity, not of wealth, and total population is a major factor. The busiest economies are: #1 United States; #2 Japan (about half of the US); #3 Germany; #4 United Kingdom; #5 France. Yes, the UK and France remain ahead of China which is #6. Surprisingly, Mexico is #9 and Brazil #11, while Russia is way down at #16, even behind South Korea at #13 and the Netherlands at #14. Keep in mind that GDP is misleading. For example, at least 10% of the GDP for the USA comes from borrowing overseas, something that will end, some day. In addition, some 3% of American GDP is created by civil lawsuits because that is "activity."
Current Account is a measure of which nations are accumulating wealth though savings and have an annual surplus: #1 Japan; #2 Russia (rebuilding); #3 Norway (lots of oil profits); #4 Switzerland (secret banking); #5 France. Nations which are bleeding wealth through borrowing have an annual deficit, and are led by: #1 United States, which has an annual deficit 17 times greater than #2 United Kingdom; #3 Brazil (improving though); #4 Mexico; #5 Spain. One final measure is Industrial Output: #1 United States; #2 Japan; #3 China (growing rapidly); #4 Germany; #5 United Kingdom. Of interest is South Korea at #9 while Russia is way down at #14, behind #13 India.
World Powers in 2030?
#1 China
#2 European Union
#3 Japan
#4 United States (bankrupt)
#5 India
#6 Korea (unified)
#7 Russia (recovered)
#8 Brazil
#9 United Kingdom
#10 Mexico
While the United States is the clear superpower today, the European Union surpasses the USA in population, GDP, and industrial output. So if the EU continues to merge politically and militarily, it will become a superpower.
China's high growth rate will allow it to match the United States economically by 2020, perhaps sooner if the USA suffers a major economic setback by failing to address its massive current account deficit (budget and trade imbalances.)
Although Japan will lose population in the years ahead, it is likely to remain the world's most technologically advanced nation. It will prosper once it finds more cash paying customers and stops granting $200 billion in credit each year to the soon to be bankrupt USA, which will be forced to cut it's military budget in half.
India is growing fast and Brazil is booming due to the increased worldwide demand for raw materials.
Pakistan and Indonesia have potential, but political instability is likely to hamper development.
These are just basic statistics, but they probably surprise many readers who have not updated their perceptions of world powers.
Carlton Meyer editor@G2mil.com
If that happens, let's hope they leave their statism behind.
They wouldn't. This part of PA is attracting a lot of newcomers from NJ and "the city" and for the most part they just bring the rot with them.
But the Republican party of today, and especially this Republican president, show absolutely no interest in even slowing the growth in government spending never mind actually shrinking it.
Same crap I heard in the 80's where Japan and West Germany was going to be the next economic powerhouse..
The 1990s will stand as a defining period in US/European economic relations. If you had predicted even as recently as the late 1980s that German auto giants like BMW and Mercedes-Benz would be opening new manufacturing facilities in the United States, people would have thought you were crazy.
The author's comments about the European Union and the United States may be technically correct, but only because he's comparing one nation (the U.S.) to a conglomeration of many nations. For this comparison to be valid, the author should include Canada and Mexico with the United States and see how they compare to the EU.
The Japanese will probably continue to make advances in Robotics...that will solve the labor problems they'll have in the future!
Funny, I seem to be the only one that believes that the reason we are up to our eyeballs in debt is because Bush and congress out liberaled the liberals. This won them reelection and will have to continue through 2006 so we can get the 60 seats in the senate.
Fact is, the libs have nothing because we pulled the rug out from under them. Medicare, education and other social programs, the libs went along with and are now complaining. They are seen as whiners and I believe this is the Rovian strategery we all loved during the last election cycle.
When we have the 60 votes, everything will be cut to lower the deficit. They know how much they need to reduce the deficit. Our victory strategy in the ME will put a couple of hundred bil back in the budget. Add it with the cuts in crap programs and we will be ok.
Yes, author is indeed old school Conservative - I prefer the old school to the new school I find.
In a way true - but the sngle currency does bring it along in that direction.
The author's speculation of future superpowers is not a list based on military prowess alone - he is factoring in economies and population as well.
It is the only straw we can grab at that once the Repubs gain control at 60 they will become fiscal conservatives.
The author is not a liberal - leans toward paleocon.
Of course it's garbage - we can always take on another long term mortgage and refinance our debt.
from a cultural and voting (they vote left historically)perspective it matters....at least to me.
That is one more additional reason we are the only superpower in the world.
This too is the goal of this dumb article :)
Ah yes..."Brazil--Sleeping Giant on our Doorstep!"
Reader's Digest, circa 1958.
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