What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out?

NY Times ^ | March 25, 2005 | KENNETH S. DEFFEYES

[neverdem]

OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR

Princeton, N.J.

PRESIDENT BUSH'S hopes for the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge came one step closer to reality last week. While Congress must still pass a law to allow drilling in the refuge, the Senate voted to include oil revenues from such drilling in the budget, making eventual approval of the president's plan more likely.

Yet the debate over drilling in the Arctic refuge has been oddly beside the point. In fact, it may be distracting us from a far more important problem: a looming world oil shortage.

The environmental argument over drilling in the refuge has often been portrayed as "tree huggers" versus "dirty drillers" (although, as a matter of fact, the north coastal plain of Alaska happens to have no trees to hug). Even as we concede that this is an oversimplification, we should also ask how a successful drilling operation would affect American oil production.

The United States Geological Survey has estimated that the Arctic oil field is likely to be at least half the size of the Prudhoe Bay oil field, almost 100 miles to the west. Opening that oil field was like hitting a grand slam: Prudhoe Bay, which has already produced more than 13 billion barrels, is the biggest American oil field. (I was once at a party with a bunch of geologists from Mobil Oil when an argument broke out: who discovered Prudhoe Bay? Everybody in the room except me claimed to have done so.)

Unfortunately, you don't hit a grand slam in every at-bat. The geological survey estimates that the Arctic refuge could produce at least half as much oil as Prudhoe Bay. It is also possible, however, that the refuge could produce no oil at all - it often happens in the oil industry. At the other extreme, the upper range of the geological survey's estimate soars to 16 billion barrels. Although the geologists at the survey are widely respected, the upper ranges of their petroleum estimates for the refuge have drawn criticism, sometimes expressed as giggles, from other petroleum geologists.

Despite its size, Prudhoe Bay was not big enough to reverse the decline of American oil production. The greatest year of United States production was 1970. Prudhoe Bay started producing oil in 1977, but never enough to raise American production above the level of 1970. The Arctic refuge will probably have an even smaller effect. Every little bit helps, but even the most successful drilling project at the Arctic refuge would be only a little bit.

But if the question of whether to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is the wrong one, what's the right one? In 1997 and 1998, a few petroleum geologists began examining world oil production using the methods that M. King Hubbert used in predicting in 1956 that United States oil production would peak during the early 1970's. These geologists indicated that world oil output would reach its apex in this decade - some 30 to 40 years after the peak in American oil production. Almost no one paid attention.

I used to work with Mr. Hubbert at Shell Oil, and my own independent research places the peak of world oil production late this year or early in 2006. Even a prompt and successful drilling operation in the Arctic refuge would not start pumping oil into the pipeline before 2008 or 2009.

A permanent drop in world oil production will have serious consequences. In addition to the economic blow, there will be the psychological effect of accepting that there are limits to an important energy resource. What can we do? More efficient diesel automobiles, and greater reliance on wind and nuclear power, are well-engineered solutions that are available right now. Conservation, although costly in most cases, will have the largest impact. The United States also has a 300-year supply of coal, and methods for using coal without adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere are being developed.

After world oil production starts to decline, a small group of geologists could gather in my living room and all claim to have discovered the peak. "We told you so," we could say. But that isn't the point. The controversy over the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is a side issue. The problem we need to face is the impending world oil shortage.

Kenneth S. Deffeyes, a professor emeritus of geology at Princeton, is the author of "Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak."

[Southack]

"What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out?"

We run on coal oil.

During the global anti-apartheid embargoes against South Africa, that nation ran its entire economy off of coal oil.

Further back, the entire German military machine ran on coal oil.

Coal oil is proven technology; every diesel engine in the world can run coal oil.

Per this article, the U.S. alone has a 300 year supply of coal. Now, 1 ton of coal makes 4 barrels of coal oil. One ton of coal currently sells for a mere $60, that means $15 per barrel coal oil compared to $55 per barrel crude oil.

This has been done before. South Africa ran out of crude oil; they made up for that loss with coal oil. Likewise, the WW2 German economy had to use coal oil because we stopped all of their crude oil imports. This is proven technology. Existing diesel engines can run coal oil with no changes in technology. Just pour in coal oil instead of diesel and your diesel engine will run just fine.

Your wallet will thank you for making the switch, too. Coal oil sells for far less than half of diesel's price.

[johnmilken]

Yeah, but warnings, however misguided, also serve a purpose. They spur innovation and ways to prove the doomsayers wrong. I think 'we're doooooooooomed!' does have a part to play in the ecology of opinions.

[Natural Law]

There is no shortage of energy in the universe. I have infonate faith in the ingenuity of mankind and the efficiency of the free market to satisfy this problem.

[meatloaf]

Of course the French reactors built by Frammatome were based on technology licensed from Westinghouse.

[John Lenin]

The right to have children should be a marketable commodity, bought and traded by individuals but absolutely limited by the state. - Kenneth Boulding, originator of the "Spaceship Earth" concept (as quoted by William Tucker in Progress and Privilege, 1982)

We have wished, we ecofreaks, for a disaster or for a social change to come and bomb us into Stone Age, where we might live like Indians in our valley, with our localism, our appropriate technology, our gardens, our homemade religion -- guilt-free at last! -- Stewart Brand (writing in the Whole Earth Catalogue

Free Enterprise really means rich people get richer. They have the freedom to exploit and psychologically rape their fellow human beings in the process . . . Capitalism is destroying the earth. -- Helen Caldicott, Union of Concerned Scientists

We must make this an insecure and inhospitable place for capitalists and their projects . . . We must reclaim the roads and plowed land, halt dam construction, tear down existing dams, free shackled rivers and return to wilderness millions of tens of millions of acres of presently settled land. -- David Foreman, Earth First!

Everything we have developed over the last 100 years should be destroyed. -- Pentti Linkola

[Graybeard58]

I just bought this 2005 Trail Blazer two days ago. I didn't consider it an "SUV" but Illinois says it is and tacks on an extra $179 tax because of it.

Only Illinois and New Jersey taxes it that way.

[Avenger]

We need to drill in Alaska but at the same time we need to be looking seriously at alternative energy sources - this is a reasonable and risk-averse path of action.

> More efficient diesel automobiles

Could someone clue me in on this? Why and in what sense are diesels autos more effieicent.

[Sgt_Schultze]

...In 1997 and 1998, a few petroleum geologists began examining world oil production using the methods that M. King Hubbert used in predicting in 1956 that United States oil production would peak during the early 1970's...

It's a good thing that the enviroweenies prevailed in forbidding extraction of oil from the Carolina coast, the Gulf coast, The California coast and the Alaska tundra. Those petroleum geologists would have been really off of their estimates if we could have continued rational oil exploration in the US.

BTW, we will never, ever "run out" of oil. At some point, it will cease to be an affordable form of energy. At that time, entrepreneurs will discover other means to produce energy at lower costs than oil, and they will become the new billionaires. Anybody who thinks we will pump the last barrel of oil, and somebody will pay some exorbitant sum to own it, and they will simply burn it, that person will not be one of the new billionaires.

[RushingWater]

There's always dilithium!

[Fee]

I thought we would all be plugged into the Matrix and we all become batteries.

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

There is not enough fissionable material in the earth's crust to make up for oil for more than a few years.

[Puckster]

A New Beetle TDI is using fuel that has more BTU's and the car gets upward of 50 miles per gallon. My wife had one. More BTU's per gallon equates to more efficient.

[John Lenin]

The continued rapid cooling of the earth since WWII is in accord with the increase in global air pollution associated with industrialization, mechanization, urbanization and exploding population. -- Reid Bryson, "Global Ecology; Readings towards a rational strategy for Man", (1971)

The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. Population control is the only answer -- Paul Ehrlich - The Population Bomb (1968)

I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000 -- Paul Ehrlich in (1969)

In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish. -- Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day (1970)

Before 1985, mankind will enter a genuine age of scarcity . . . in which the accessible supplies of many key minerals will be facing depletion -- Paul Ehrlich in (1976)

This [cooling] trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century -- Peter Gwynne, Newsweek 1976

[The Spirit Of Allegiance]

"We must make this an insecure and inhospitable place for capitalists and their projects . . . We must reclaim the roads and plowed land, halt dam construction, tear down existing dams, free shackled rivers and return to wilderness millions of tens of millions of acres of presently settled land. -- David Foreman, Earth First! "


"TAKE CARE OF TRAITORS AND ANARCHISTS APPROPRIATELY" -- The U.S. Constitution (paraphrased)

[Bars4Bill]

Once the oil runs out then Rush going to advise his listners to buy bigger SUVs?

Brilliant, idiot.

[UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide]

Did you get all those people in that ittoh bitty SUV?

[Gumption]

What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out?

Two words - baby seals.

[Radix]

What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out?

An intriguing theory now permeating oil company research staffs suggests that crude oil may actually be a natural inorganic product, not a stepchild of unfathomable time and organic degradation. The theory suggests there may be huge, yet-to-be-discovered reserves of oil at depths that dwarf current world estimates.

The theory is simple: Crude oil forms as a natural inorganic process which occurs between the mantle and the crust, somewhere between 5 and 20 miles deep.

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=38645

[Fast1]

There is plenty of Oil out there and there are some new theories on how it is formed as some old depleted wells have oil in them once again..Also off the Falklands there is allegedly a huge deposit..

[John Lenin]

If these morons had their way we would go back to 14th century living, burning coal to stay warm, chopping down trees so we could have fire to eat and open sewers to preserve the fresh water.