Posted on 02/21/2005 3:09:17 PM PST by bitt
Washington — The Earth may be on the brink of a worldwide epidemic from a bird flu virus that may mutate to become as deadly and infectious as viruses that killed millions during three influenza pandemics of the 20th century, a federal health official said Monday.
Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said scientists expect that a flu virus that has swept through chickens and other poultry in Asia will genetically change into a flu that can be transmitted from person to person.
The genes of the avian flu change rapidly, she said, and experts believe it is highly likely that the virus will evolve into a pathogen deadly for humans.
She made the remarks in a plenary lecture at the national meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
In Asia, there have already been a number of deaths among people who caught the flu from chickens or ducks. The mortality rate is very high, about 72 per cent of identified patients, said Dr. Gerberding. There also have been documented cases of this strain of flu being transferred from person-to-person, but the outbreak was not sustained, she said.
“We are expecting more human cases over the next few weeks because this is high season for avian influenza in that part of the world,” said Dr. Gerberding. Although cases of human-to-human transmission have been rare, “our assessment is that this is a very high threat.”
This assessment, she said, is based on the known history of the flu virus.
The avian flu now spreading in Asia is part of what is called the H1 family of flu viruses. It is a pathogen that is notorious in human history.
“Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience a pandemic of influenza,” said Dr. Gerberding. In 1918, H1 appeared and millions died worldwide. In 1957, the Asian flu was an H2, and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 was a H3.
There had been small appearances of the H1-type of avian viruses in other years, but nothing like the H5 now rampaging through the birds of Asia.
“We are seeing a highly pathogenic strain of influenza virus emerge to an extraordinary proportion across the entire western component of Asia,” she said. “The reason this is so ominous is because of the evolution of flu.... You may see the emergence of a new strain to which the human population has no immunity.”
Study already has shown that the virus can infect cats who can then infect other cats, which Dr. Gerberding said was “another harbinger” of the possibility of a human pandemic.
“The science here is all alerting us that we have a great deal to be concerned about,” she said.
The CDC chief said her agency is getting ready for a possible pandemic next year.
A special flu team, organized last year, continues to monitor the spread of the avian flu and to analyze the strains as they appear.
The government has ordered two million doses of vaccine that would protect against the known strains of avian flu. Dr. Gerberding said this would give manufacturers a head start on making the shots that would be needed to combat a full-blown epidemic of an H1-type of flu in this country.
CDC is also plugged into an international communication and monitoring system that, it is hoped, will give an early warning of the emergence of a deadly new flu.
But at the same time, the agency is helping to produce the 180 million or so doses of regular flu that are needed annually. Dr. Gerberding said the timeline for producing the regular vaccine yearly is very tight, with little room for problems. To produce a new vaccine in response to the sudden emergence of an H1-flu bug would require an extraordinary new effort, she said.
“We don't now have the capacity to do both,” said Dr. Gerberding.
Yeah, I vaguely remember something about that recently. No one was paying much attention (including me).
Oh, and that virus was found in blood, feces, everywhere not just respiratory.
That's scary. How high of a mortality?
Yes, I agree.
I generally don't have much trouble with flu like diseases. In the last 15 years, got it twice.
Both times, I was in bed for days before it broke, and in bed a total of over a week each time.
It can be quite nasty, but the old remedies do have alot of positive effect, lot of Vit C., lots of fluid, and SOUP!! chicken soup, with huge amounts of garlic and pepper.
I normally consume large amounts of calcium, zinc, and potassium, so I know I have no deficiencies there.
I think mortality if 70 to 80 percent. It keeps reminding me of pneumonic plague.
You're right - but even that has a very slim chance of happening in the US because they destroy all the birds on a farm prior to them getting into the food chain.
That of course only relates to commercial poultry growers, not the guy raising a couple in his yard for home consumption.
Last I heard it was around 76%. Now, whether or not a human vectored virus would be tht lethal is another thing. The 76% is for the H1 and that is actually hard to catch even from the birds. In most cases, IIRC, it took a lot of exposure.
I don't want to upset you, but earliest indications are 70-80% mortality.
There is a study being done in Asia now, of poultry workers in areas where Avian flu has been found, to find out if there are people who test positive for the virus but who weren't ill, or weren't seriously ill. So far, it's not encouraging. Few if any healthy people have had a mild case, it seems.
A large number of mild cases verified would mean that the flu possibly isn't as deadly as it first seems, but that doesn't seem to be panning out.
I think it has mutated and become much, much more infectious, and is appearing in other species, including mammals.
Judith, did you read of five human cases in Taiwan?
If I remember correctly, the 76% is for the H5N1--am I mistaken?
I know you are joking, but some of us may be.
No--I vaguely remember something, but the Cambodian and Viet Nam cases are the ones I recall.
Taiwan--!
I should probebly move away from Seattle then. Been thinking about it for the past few years.
I would wait on the move!! I am so sleepy, nite yall.
Well, I don't have any livestock around.
But I imagine if it starts to get bad, as simple a task as filling your gas tank at the Shell station could infect you. Flu virus can live for days outside the body.
Seems there ought to be a way to work a "When pigs fly..." into this.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.