Posted on 02/21/2005 3:09:17 PM PST by bitt
Washington — The Earth may be on the brink of a worldwide epidemic from a bird flu virus that may mutate to become as deadly and infectious as viruses that killed millions during three influenza pandemics of the 20th century, a federal health official said Monday.
Dr. Julie Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said scientists expect that a flu virus that has swept through chickens and other poultry in Asia will genetically change into a flu that can be transmitted from person to person.
The genes of the avian flu change rapidly, she said, and experts believe it is highly likely that the virus will evolve into a pathogen deadly for humans.
She made the remarks in a plenary lecture at the national meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
In Asia, there have already been a number of deaths among people who caught the flu from chickens or ducks. The mortality rate is very high, about 72 per cent of identified patients, said Dr. Gerberding. There also have been documented cases of this strain of flu being transferred from person-to-person, but the outbreak was not sustained, she said.
“We are expecting more human cases over the next few weeks because this is high season for avian influenza in that part of the world,” said Dr. Gerberding. Although cases of human-to-human transmission have been rare, “our assessment is that this is a very high threat.”
This assessment, she said, is based on the known history of the flu virus.
The avian flu now spreading in Asia is part of what is called the H1 family of flu viruses. It is a pathogen that is notorious in human history.
“Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience a pandemic of influenza,” said Dr. Gerberding. In 1918, H1 appeared and millions died worldwide. In 1957, the Asian flu was an H2, and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 was a H3.
There had been small appearances of the H1-type of avian viruses in other years, but nothing like the H5 now rampaging through the birds of Asia.
“We are seeing a highly pathogenic strain of influenza virus emerge to an extraordinary proportion across the entire western component of Asia,” she said. “The reason this is so ominous is because of the evolution of flu.... You may see the emergence of a new strain to which the human population has no immunity.”
Study already has shown that the virus can infect cats who can then infect other cats, which Dr. Gerberding said was “another harbinger” of the possibility of a human pandemic.
“The science here is all alerting us that we have a great deal to be concerned about,” she said.
The CDC chief said her agency is getting ready for a possible pandemic next year.
A special flu team, organized last year, continues to monitor the spread of the avian flu and to analyze the strains as they appear.
The government has ordered two million doses of vaccine that would protect against the known strains of avian flu. Dr. Gerberding said this would give manufacturers a head start on making the shots that would be needed to combat a full-blown epidemic of an H1-type of flu in this country.
CDC is also plugged into an international communication and monitoring system that, it is hoped, will give an early warning of the emergence of a deadly new flu.
But at the same time, the agency is helping to produce the 180 million or so doses of regular flu that are needed annually. Dr. Gerberding said the timeline for producing the regular vaccine yearly is very tight, with little room for problems. To produce a new vaccine in response to the sudden emergence of an H1-flu bug would require an extraordinary new effort, she said.
“We don't now have the capacity to do both,” said Dr. Gerberding.
ping your lists, if you think....
So, my death will taste like chicken?
All I know is I have heard about 10 people tell me in the last 30 days about gallbladders being taken out all of a sudden with hardly a single sign of a problem and then bam. Not saying it is related to anything...just odd. Not to mention myself having gallstones...but im goin the eastern medicine route. Western Medicine gives me the creeps.
Gaia's gettin' angry!
I try to keep my ear to the ground when it comes to emerging diseases.
This one could be bad. Very, very bad.
Capture some of those damn birds and send them to: China. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia...let them work out the scientific details about how to prevent any disease they transmit...
My grandmother used to tell me about 1918. She would try to help as best should could. The sick were quarantined in their homes where we lived. Those who had the courage would cook meals for them and leave the food and buckets of water on their porches. I think she said they burned the hospital after it was over. Of course back then that wasn’t unusual.
BTTT
Feathery tickle in the throat
Fowl taste in the mouth,
Sudden change in attitude or feeling down in the mouth,
or just not giving a cluck.
The problem is that they could do the same to us before we do it to them.
Don't need to capture them. Birds are highly migratory creatures. This could spread worldwide in six months, easy.
Of course the fact that it kills alot of birds does put a crimp in them flying somewhere.
But like most other diseases, there are bound to be some animals that become carriers. Infected, but immune to the symptoms.
Could be grim. Could be appropriations time, too.
Sounds like a Fluster Cluck to me.
So what happened to the AIDS in Africa? Thought THAT was supposed to be OUR problem.....
now you know why I always took the veal!
My first thought as well.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.