CIA Report: India, China will be major powers in 2020

Kansas City ^ | Thu, Jan. 13, 2005 | JONATHAN S. LANDAY

[CarrotAndStick]

LANGLEY, Va. - (KRT) - The world of 2020 is likely to be one in which Asia is the main engine of the global economy, India and China are major powers and al-Qaida-inspired Islamist movements have spread to Muslim communities outside the Middle East, a new U.S. intelligence report said Thursday.

[Prime Choice]

I'm not the one to tell you what's wrong or what's right.

I've seen suns that were freezing and lives that were through.

[RegT]

If nothing else, the last three and a half years have shown that the CIA full of offal.

[conservlib]

If the E.U. got together with Russia, they would be a superpower that rival the U.S.? However, the likelyhood of that to happen is very slim. Also if Japan, China, and India got together, they would be a superpower that rival the U.S.? That is also unlikely too.

[Dallas59]

Who predicted 9/11/2001? I do foretell that Europe will be Islamic in 2020....And we'll have flying cars in 2008!

[Ksnavely]

After the remarkably accurate reports and predictions on WMD's in Iraq, the CIA is now going to make predictions on the state of two dynamic countries in 15 years. Am I the only one that is scratching my head on this one?

[Brilliant]

Uhmmmm... Has the CIA been doing a Rumplestiltskin?

Asia is already the world's economic engine, and al Qaeda has already spread throughout the world.

[hinckley buzzard]

"European countries could face a period of economic stagnation unless they take steps to deal with the problems of aging populations and shrinking work forces, such as overhauling social-welfare, education and tax systems. They also must better integrate immigrants, mainly those from Muslim countries."

I'm certain that no one here, for example, would ever have guessed at these revelations.

Is this really what we are paying the CIA for? Reader's Digest versions of current events?

[endthematrix]

"The vast majority of India lives in abject poverty."

Standard of living plays little role in authoritarian regimes rise to a global power through the use of force.

[endthematrix]

Don't forget you are highly educated. You understand, the vast majority does not.

[Forgiven_Sinner]

Excellent post, Peyton.

Not only will China not be a superpower in 2020, I'm not convinced it won't be in civil disorder.

North Korea is probably the most unstable regime in the world, with China in at #2.

China is at the same stage as the Soviet Union in 1986, after perestroika. China just hasn't done glasnost. China is moving to a market economy (actually, it was never eliminated, the Chinese being naturally market oriented, even through the 40 years of communism). This brings in all the Western ideas and money that destabilized the Soviet Union. The only thing going for them is that they are not in a cold war race with the US.

However, they are a demographic time bomb, with their sexual disparity, due to generations of one child, one family and sex-selected abortion. Their millions of single men will have to go abroad for broads or go to war. Taiwan is the natural target, in which case they will butt heads with the US.

If I were China, I would wait for a wimpy president who would betray Taiwan, and then take it over. But Taiwan would be no push over for them. An amphibious assault would be very difficult if they had the equipment--and they don't. It would be the equivalent of the US landing in Japan without a surrender.

The other outlet for the millions of single men is revolution against the party. Their best and brightest are educated here in the US. How many of them will want to change their country to a democracy?

I'm not done. There's another destabilizing force in China: Christianity. The house church movement there continues to grow. There are over a hundred million Christians in China. Once enough of China is Christianized, the Communist party will collapse. Christianity has historically shown it flourishes under persecution.

All I can say is: "Look out below!"

[Paleo Conservative]

They also must better integrate immigrants, mainly those from Muslim countries.

I think they've got that backwards.

[Paul_Denton]

It is not writ in stone. China's growth can be stopped if more manufacturing was brought back here. Unfortunently there are too many leftys and RINOS for that to happen.

[Smiling-Face TIGER]

Wash Times reported in Sept 2002 that:

US Deputy Secy of Defense, Paul Wolfowitz said in a 2002 Sept interview with Phoenix TV that :

" China will very likely become a Superpower within the next 25-50 years, and that is very fast, by Historical standards"

And the Wash Times further reported that "Secy of Defense, Don Rumsfeld agrees with this assessment".

This assessment was based on studies by US Pentagon, US Defense Dept, US War College, CIA, FBI, etc

Personally, I don't agree with it

Why would any nation be stupid enough to want to be a Superpower ???? with all its headaches, burdens, and to be the targets of Al-Queda and all the 2-bits terrorists wannabeess ?????

Nope, China may be too smart for that.....

[Gengis Khan]

I believe everything given in the second article and I partly believe in the first article. That is India WILL BE the "Super Power" NOT China. Why do I believe that?.... Because I want to.
Yup India does not look anything like a superpower for now but no superpower ever looked like one until their time came. America never looked like one a little more than hundred years ago.

I am right now 24 and I hope to see India become a superpower within my lifetime. We are nowhere there yet, but we are going in the right direction and thats more important.

[dfwgator]

The Chinese economy is a house of cards that could collapse at any moment.

[peyton randolph]

The Chinese economy is a house of cards that could collapse at any moment.

That is consistent with post # 2. I don't believe the CIA report.

[sukhoi-30mki]

Hmm,the number of people below the poverty line in India,according to the census of 2001 was around 25%-far below the 75% it was at independence(1947).While that is still a huge number,you should also remember that India has huge middle class(bigger than the US population)-which is also the fastest growing.If you don't believe me,visit the websites of Chevrolet,GM,Hyundai,LG,Pepsi,GE or any other MNC & click on their India operations.

About your statement on the elite coming to the US & getting their butts kicked ,well that's not how most US newspapers seem to view it.Most rate Indians as the richest minority group in the US,while Indian & Chinese students regularly top their American counterparts in Science & Math.

[sukhoi-30mki]

Standards of living are very important in a democracy's quest for 'superpowerdom' & India happens to be one.Your criterion applies to the PRC,though.

[Cronos]

The vast majority of India lives in abject poverty.

You mean the 20% that live below the poverty line? You call that a 'vast majority'? sheesh...