Posted on 11/21/2004 11:45:29 AM PST by TapTheSource
China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S.
Alexandr Nemets Tuesday, Aug. 10, 2004
During the last several months, there have been numerous hints in the Chinese and Taiwanese media indicating that war is more likely than believed here in the West.
Some strategists suggest that the 2008 Olympics scheduled for Beijing constitute a key benchmark, after which a war may be possible. However, it is clear that both nations are preparing for a conflict in the near term, and that 2008 may not be as pivotal as some experts believe.
In fact, China’s media have been repeating the mantra in their news reports that the People’s Liberation Army is preparing to gain a victory in this “internal military conflict in a high-tech environment.”
Chinese war planners have studied carefully the recent U.S.-Iraq War, a war that demonstrated to PLA strategists that U.S. military might is derived from its technological superiority.
China’s military experts conducted similar studies after America’s first Gulf War. One military study written by two Chinese colonels entitled “Unrestricted Warfare” suggested that China could not compete with America’s technological prowess.
Instead, China had to develop “asymmetrical” warfare to defeat the U.S. in any conflict.
Interestingly, “Unrestricted Warfare” became an instant best seller in China after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In the 1998 book, the Chinese colonels suggested that a successful bombing by Osama bin Laden of the World Trade Center would be an example of this new “unrestricted warfare” concept.
Apparently, China feels much better positioned after the recent Iraq War and wants to challenge the U.S. on a technological level.
Almost instantly after the Iraq War, in May 2003, China’s President and Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao declared at the party’s Politburo meeting the necessity of “active support of national defense and modernization of the army.”
Hu emphasized the need for further integrating information technology (IT) into the PLA and mobilizing China’s entire scientific and technological potential for PLA’s needs.
As a result, the PLA’s modernization in these areas has accelerated significantly.
Since the second half of 2003, the PLA has been engaged in the latest stage of its RMA – Revolution in Military Affairs – program, which was officially announced by the chairman of China Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, in his speech on Sept. 1, 2003.
He emphasized that that PLA should transform itself into a “smaller and much smarter science- and technology-based army.”
Jiang defined the major tasks of new PLA reform as follows:
Reducing PLA’s ranks, primarily ground forces, by 200,000.
Maximizing IT and other advanced technologies – including nanotechnologies, space technologies, electromagnetic weapons, etc.
Improving the educational and qualitative training of PLA servicemen.
Transforming the PLA into an “army of one” that is comparatively smaller and of very high quality, similar to the U.S. Army.
Acquiring the most advanced weaponry.
The Russia Connection
During 2003 and 2004, Russia – jointly with Belarus and Ukraine – has been a major source of advanced weapons for the PLA.
According to official figures from Russia’s weapons export state monopoly, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s total weapons export in 2003 approached $5.7 billion, making Russia the second largest arms exporter after the U.S. (Please note that China is arguably the leading arms exporter in quantity of arms transported, as its weaponry is considerably less expensive than that of the U.S.)
China has purchased 38 percent of Russian arms exports, or around $2.2 billion.
If one takes into account the weapons deliveries from Belarus and Ukraine to China, along with “double use” nuclear and space technologies supplied by Russia to China, then Chinese real arms imports from greater Russia would, in my estimation, be $4 billion.
Clearly, Russia and her allies have been a huge factor supporting the PLA in its rapid modernization and planned confrontation with the U.S.
3-Pronged Strategy
The PLA has been following its “three-way policy” of advanced weapons acquisition.
This three-pronged strategy calls for China to gain technologically advanced weaponry through (1) imports, (2) joint (Chinese-foreign) weapons R&D, and (3) independent weapons R&D within China.
The details of this mechanism were given in the article “China’s military affairs in 2003,” published by the Taiwanese journal Zhonggong yanjiu (China Communism Research) in February 2004.
According to Taiwanese experts, though weapons import and joint R&D still play the major role in PLA modernization, the role of “independent R&D” has been increasing gradually.
Appointed in March 2003, new Chinese Defense Minister (former chief of Defense Ministry’s Armament Division) Col.-Gen. Cao Gangchuan was personally in charge of this work.
He has tried to decrease China’s dependence on Russian arms and increase the share of advanced weapons imports from Germany, France and Israel.
China also is engaged in joint weapons R&D projects with EU and NATO countries, including R&D of mid-range air-to-air missiles and highly precise satellite positioning (Galileo project).
The Air Force
China believes that in a conflict with Taiwan, air dominance will be key to a quick victory.
The PLA has been beefing up its PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and aircraft troops of the PLA Navy (PLAN).
Reportedly, by the end of February 2004, the PLAAF purchased from Russia 76 SU-30 MKK fighters belonging to the advanced “4 plus” generation.
PLAN air troops obtained 24 even more advanced SU-30 MKK fighters.
There is no data regarding future deliveries of the “finished” SU-30 from Russia to China; however, the Chinese aircraft industry is more or less capable now of producing the SU-30 as well as other fighters belonging to the fourth generation, or close to this level.
Dramatic modernization of China’s First Aviation Industry Corp., or AVIC-1, from 2001 to 2004, is of principal importance here (the data in this account are given in the above-mentioned article in the Zhonggong yanjiu journal).
Four major companies are developing China’s jet-manufacturing capability. Interestingly, each of these companies recently underwent radical modernization and upgrading, including advanced equipment obtained from Europe’s Airbus, claiming the help is for “cooperation in passenger aircraft production.”
Shenyang Aircraft Corp. continued, in the past year, to produce SU-27 SK (J-11) heavy fighters from Russian kits at a rate of at least 25 units annually, and the share of Chinese-made components surpassed 70 percent.
The same company now prepares SU-30 MKK (J-11A) fighters for manufacturing.
In the frame of “independent R&D” within China, the Chengdu Aircraft Corp. has mastered the serial production of medium J-10 fighters and FC-1 light fighters. These planes reportedly can match the U.S. F-16 fighter.
Here are some other developments in China’s air wing:
Guizhou Aircraft Corp. developed the advanced Shanying fighter-trainer, while Xian Aircraft Corp. mostly finished developing the new generation of FBC-1 (JH-7) long-range fighter-bomber, which became known as JH-7A.
Other enterprises, belonging to AVIC-1, mastered production of KAB-500 guided bombs and several kinds of air-to-air and air-to ground missiles.
By the end of 2003, the new generation of Flying Leopard, i.e., JH-7A, was being tested. This fighter-bomber’s weapons include new air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles of beyond-vision range, guided bombs, etc. This aircraft is adapted for anti-radar reconnaissance, effective low-altitude strikes against large naval vessels, and general strikes of ground-based and naval targets.
By the end of 2004, as a result of supply from Russia and increased fighter production at AVIC-1 subsidiaries, the number of advanced fighters of various kinds in PLAN air troops and the PLAAF – including SU-27 (J-11), SU-30 (J-11A), J-10, FC-1, Shanying, FBC-1 (JH-7) and JH-7A – could surpass an estimated 400 units. The Sea Component
China also sees its navy as critical in any successful assault on Taiwan.
The PLA Navy (PLAN) has numerous Chinese-Russian projects under way this year and next, including:
Purchase of two Russian Sovremenny destroyers, equipped with improved ship-to-ship supersonic cruise missiles (SSM) Sunburn 3M80MBE of 240 km range. Initially, Sunburn had a range of 160 km. However, in 2001-2003, Raduga Design Bureau in Dubna (about 150 km north of Moscow) designed, under PLAN’s orders, a much more lethal version of SSM.
Very probably, serial production of new SSM would be mastered in China, so it would be installed on two Sovremenny destroyers, purchased by PLAN in 1999-2000, on Chinese-built Luhu- and Luhai-class destroyers as well as Jiangwei-class frigates. According to media reports in the Hong Kong and Taiwan media, two new Sovremenny destroyers could be transferred to PLAN before the end of 2005.
Purchase of eight Kilo submarines, equipped by “super-advanced” 3M54E (CLUB-S) submarine-launched anti-ship missiles. In 2003, China already obtained 50 missiles of this kind, which would greatly improve PLAN’s striking capacity. China intends to organize production of these missiles. They probably also could be used on Chinese-built conventional submarines of the Song class.
New Kilo submarines could enter PLAN service in 2005 or the first half of 2006. (Information regarding destroyers and conventional submarines was repeated in several articles in Zhonggong yanjiu in January 2003 through February 2004 and in multiple media reports from Hong Kong during the same period.)
Construction of “093 project” nuclear attack submarines and the “094 project” strategic nuclear submarine, using Russian plans and technology, at Huludao (a port city in northeast Liaoning province) military shipbuilding plant. By the end of 2005, PLAN would have in its service at least two “093 project” and at least one “094 project” nuclear submarines. Reportedly, Russia had to make significant improvements in design and weapons of these submarines, in accordance with Chinese customers’ requirements.
Along with Russian contracts is the construction of a new generation of destroyers, frigates and conventional submarines at modernized shipbuilding plants in Dalian, Shanghai, Qingdao and Wuhan cities. An upgraded PLA could be capable pf establishing sea control around Taiwan in 2008.
Aso important is the fact that both the PLAAF and PLAN would be equipped, by 2008, with perfect military information technology systems, more precisely by C4ISR (command, control, computers, communication, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) systems, which would make the use of the listed weapon systems much more effective.
Taiwan's navy & to a lesser extent,it's airforce is losing it's edge in technology-that's a fact.While a huge chunk of China's subs are close to obsolete,they atleast have 4-6 new D/Es-4 Kilo class subs & 2 Song class boats.The Kilo has proven itself to miles ahead of corresponding European designed boats(of the 80s) in NATO exercises in quietness & Taiwan only has 2 combat capable D/E subs.It's also highly unlikely Taiwan's surface fleet will survive the barrage of anti-ship cruise missiles aimed at them-they don't have anything coming close to the Aegis battle management system or vertically launched SM-2 missiles.
In short,Im not exactly cocky about Taiwan's chances
But they would be no match for the Seawolf and Virginia class subs that would be sent in by the US to wipe them out should the shooting start. Despite what the MSN may be saying, Bush has been quietly but strongly supporting Taiwan (espablishing an air base close to the island, putting US troops back there, etc. etc. etc.). The year to worry is 2008 when Hitlery tries to run... and the ChiCom olympics thing.
I don't think the ENTIRE Pacific Ocean would become radioactive, probably a few cubic miles of it. The point is that it would be an exceedingly difficult problem to deal with. At least with Chernobyl you can put up a fence and prevent animals from going in & out. You can dig up the radioactive dirt and put it somewhere. But it's very difficult to put up a fence in the ocean, so all the sea life in the exposed areas would be subjected to high amounts of harmful radiation. All of that is only with the assumption that the radioactive steam didn't send millions of gallons of fallout up into the atmosphere. And then there's the possibility that much of the radioactive water could migrate to some shoreline. And this harmful radiation would have a half life of, what is it, 2500 years? That is truly a terrible downside. Sure, only 1 person died in Ted Kennedy's car, but once that car was pulled out of the water there was no more danger to humanity. There was only the potential for maybe half a dozen deaths in that "accident", but there's a potential for hundreds of thousands of deaths due to radiation sickness and cancer from just one sunken nuclear ship.
On top of that severe downside, it is my belief that once Americans view such a terrible outcome, they would lose stomach for sending more soldiers to die for Taiwan.
"Of course Taiwan probebly already has the bomb. "
I'm very glad you pointed that out. Even having just 2 nuclear missiles changes the balance of power in that region.
That brings up all kinds of contingencies. What if they actually use the 2 devices? It would be the end of Taiwan. They send 2 nukes to Shanghai and Beijing and China retaliates by flattening the entire island. Tens of Millions of casualties on both sides. Taiwan "loses".
What if they don't use them? China invades, suffers millions of casualties in a war of attrition, finally wins. Taiwan loses.
This does put more leverage into my original post which stated that the Chinese army would probably do a run through VietNam first. Then Taiwan would be forced to hit VietNam with nukes in order to knock out the offensive capability of China's Army/Navy.
I think in the overall strategic view, Taiwan would need at least a dozen nuclear warheads to really tilt the balance of power. But they would still be annihilated in the end.
You're right. The thousands of deaths monthly from the sunken Russian subs will be enough to......uh....you mean there are no deaths from sunken Russian nukes?
Never mind. You overestimate the danger of a small nuclear reactor containing thousands of pounds of nuclear fuel in an ocean as large as the Pacific. I suspect you'd be lucky to detect any radiation from such a sunken carrier, never mind dying from that undetectable radiation.
China threatens but never mobilizes its military or builds its forces up to actually attack. A combination of the possibility of Taiwan beig nuclear armed (in addition to their own well-trained and equipped conventional forces) and being protected by the US is what deters China from actually attacking. Taiwan should and probebly already does have a MAD policy.
" The thousands of deaths monthly from the sunken Russian subs will be enough to......uh....you mean there are no deaths from sunken Russian nukes?"
***That's just because they were lucky enough not to have the control rods damaged or caught fire. If the control rods melted, there would be a runaway thermal reaction and you'd have the scenario I'm bringing up. That is the downside for your scenario as well as mine. There are probably thousands of deaths from Russian nukes at Chernobyl, which is the more apt analogy to choose here.
You overestimate the danger of a small nuclear reactor containing thousands of pounds of nuclear fuel in an ocean as large as the Pacific.
***I haven't said anything about the likelihood of the event, just that that is the downside. It's like those California Lottery commercials that say, "upside, being right; downside, being eaten", and they follow through with the $Millions of upside POTENTIAL. Of course they don't talk about the LIKELIHOOD. The Russian subs sank in peacetime. The scenario we're talking about is open hostility with the nuclear carrier actually under attack and on fire. It is a possible scenario, but perhaps not all that likely, given the safeguards in place. But I would put the LIKELIHOOD of a carrier being sunk (with the nuclear engine still in containment) under a swarm attack of cheap anti-ship missiles as higher, possibly as high as 30 to 40%.
I suspect you'd be lucky to detect any radiation from such a sunken carrier, never mind dying from that undetectable radiation.
***Sure, there would be minimal radiation from a sunken carrier which still had its control rods in place and containment still effective. But if the containment was lost and the control rods were damaged, you could have the "China Syndrome" in more ways than one. You would be able to detect the radiation without a Geiger counter, by whether the fish were sunburnt.
Well, the Chernobyl reactor was moderated with graphite, which caught fire and helped spread the radiation. I'm sure the carrier reactors, like all American reactors, have safety features which would cause the reactor to shut down when damaged.
But if the containment was lost and the control rods were damaged, you could have the "China Syndrome" in more ways than one. You would be able to detect the radiation without a Geiger counter, by whether the fish were sunburnt.
Do you even know what the "China Syndrome" is? The reactor core overheats and melts thru the containment structure. Kinda hard to melt a reactor under tons of cold sea water. Also, the water absorbs neutrons and would further slow the reaction.
I'd be surprised if there were any radiation released, let alone enough to kill fish, not to mention people. This is not going to be the nuclear winter like scenario that causes us to preemptively give Taiwan to the PRC
"I'm sure the carrier reactors, like all American reactors, have safety features which would cause the reactor to shut down when damaged."
***The safety features of 3 Mile Island didn't work well enough to prevent the reactor from crippling itself during peacetime, so there is in your post a tacit acknowledgement that there is a downside here under wartime conditions. That was my original intent to show, so thank you for reinforcing my original point. I do not gain any comfort from your assurance that "I'm sure they have safety features". Oh, and BTW, I'm noticing that this is an awful lot of attention being paid to what was essentially a literary shortcut, similar to using the term "sundown" or "sunrise".
Do you even know what the "China Syndrome" is?
***Yes I do, which was why I used the term. Of course, the literary parallelism seemed to have gone unnoticed.
The reactor core overheats and melts thru the containment structure.
***The movie pointed out that the core overheats so much that it starts to melt through the ground below it until it gets to China, but it postulated that it would probably only really eat its way down to the water tables and spew out tons of radioactive steam. So a reactor core that has gotten hot enough to melt through a carrier superstructure might be too hot to be moderated by the sea water that quickly turns to steam and ablates away, migrating radiation with it.
Kinda hard to melt a reactor under tons of cold sea water. Also, the water absorbs neutrons and would further slow the reaction.
***True enough. But as long as the temperature is above the relatively balmy (for nukes) 100 degrees C, the surrounding H20 turns to steam. It becomes a nasty open-loop configuration.
I'd be surprised if there were any radiation released, let alone enough to kill fish, not to mention people.
***I do not gain comfort from the fact that you would be surprised. I've heard that one before.
This is not going to be the nuclear winter like scenario that causes us to preemptively give Taiwan to the PRC.
***I never said it would be a nuclear winter, just the possible loss of carriers with a terrible additional downside. Nor has anyone said this causes us to preemptively give Taiwan to the PRC. Your final sentence shows where your motivation comes from in arguing against the possibility of such a scenario. If it were truly possible, the end result of an American withdrawal from the conflict becomes self-evident.
If you were a PRC Navy General with the commission of planning an invasion of Taiwan, would you take your tens of thousands of antiship and antiaircraft missiles and take potshots at the Taiwan Navy, or would you aim a swarm attack at the American Crown Jewels? Keep in mind that just one carrier accident in the Caribbean cost us lots of planes and about $500M during peacetime. Also keep in mind that if you sank every single Taiwanese boat, would that give you the final edge? The real power in the region isn't Taiwan, it's the U.S. But if you sank 2 American carriers, would that give you the edge?
Worked well enough that there was no radiation release, let alone a mushroom cloud.
That was my original intent to show, so thank you for reinforcing my original point. I do not gain any comfort from your assurance that "I'm sure they have safety features".
Look it up, they do.
Oh, and BTW, I'm noticing that this is an awful lot of attention being paid to what was essentially a literary shortcut, similar to using the term "sundown" or "sunrise".
You could have just said it was a silly comment, and stopped defending it.
So a reactor core that has gotten hot enough to melt through a carrier superstructure might be too hot to be moderated by the sea water that quickly turns to steam and ablates away, migrating radiation with it.
As you admitted, vis-a-vis volcanic vents, steam doesn't last long under 100's or 1000's of feet of cold water.
Your final sentence shows where your motivation comes from in arguing against the possibility of such a scenario.
Huh? What's my motivation?
I completely get your angle. There was a time that the US was willing to do anything if it meant maintaining its dominance and lead. Even going as far as involving itself in matters that (to be honest) were extremely small scale affairs that it should not have been involved in (eg Cuba could have been managed better had the CIA not tried to manage it ....maybe i should explain more, but hopefully i do not need to).
Anyways, i believe that in the next decade or two the United States will be a form of Europe. A semblance. A veritable doppelganger. Akin to nations like France and the Netherlands.
And while some freepers may scream bloody murder when they read this they should look at it in the following way. Once upon a time France was a nation to be feared. They were strong, their forces potent, and their soldiers respected and feared. Nowadays the French are the butt of many a joke, and no matter what they do (eg the GIGN and the Legionnaires are pretty darn good) they will just not get any respect. Anyways, France was strong .....now they are weak as a nation.
Anyone who thinks the US is immune to that is being foolish. Europe is littered with nations that were once either global powers, or at the very least extremely potent regional powers. Goodness, even Portugal used to be a global power once, and Spain used to make nations and principalities around the world quake in their boots. Today they are all concerned with providing social care to one half of their population, and trying to promote euthanasia for the other half!
Britain ...Britain, the nation that has had the greatest empire ever to exist on this planet, an empire where the sun never ever set, an empire that included whole lands the Romans had no idea existed, and an empire that included in some way and manner all the continents in the world ....is just as impotent as the rest! And while some may say that they (Britain) were/are in Iraq it should be realized that that decision was made by Tony Blair's honchos. The populace does not support it by and large! (Although i have to say as a whole the Britons are made of stronger stuff than say the French).
Anyways, the US can easily follow suit. Already around half the population is French-esque in nature. Half of the population is still trying to 'understand' 9-11. Half the population still thinks terrorists can be 'reasoned' with, and that a 'softer' stance would be of greater prudence.
If Bush ever tried some of the stuff you said in your post he would be impeached! Goodness, if he tried some of the stuff Kennedy did (a democrat .,...but during the 60s when even Democrats had B@ll$) he'd be impeached. Geez, Abu Ghraib made many go insane just because some guys were made to pose naked (i am not condoning that, just saying that if that had happened some decades ago people would have been complaining that it was too lenient).
The funny thing is that the bad guys have no such restrictions. The bad guys can play fair when they want, and they can get grimey when its rootin' time in the pig muck! But we are supposed to wear white hats all the time, flash a toothy grin, and lay our coat in the mud for the fair lady to cross!
This is why i wish we could have an alliance with Russia. After all their economy is strong now and they are able to invest more in their military affairs. And they ahve no problems doing stuff that makes the UN shake their collective finger at them. Thus maybe the US would be the 'good cop' and Russia the cop who does things that would cost the good cop his badge!
But anyways, in two decades the US will be like Europe (no matter who is the president ....a Republican administration only slows down the degradation, but then not even by much). And in two decades China will either be a superpower in reality, or a superpower in all but name.
And i can assure you there will still be some who even then will be saying that China cannot cross the Taiwan bloody strait!
"Worked well enough that there was no radiation release..."
***This is flatly untrue. The following top 3 hits out of 718 from Google for "radiation release" "three mile island" will serve as an example.
http://www.iicph.org/docs/tmi.htm
Rosalie Bertell on Three Mile Island
Dr. Rosalie Bertell's Signed, Notarized Statement
by Rosalie Bertell, Ph.D., GNSH
July 10, 1998
I feel that former President Jimmy Carter should come forth with all of the facts surrounding the Three Mile Island Accident, especially those which involved the radiation release and the dose to the public.
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/nucene/tmi.html
http://www.cnn.com/HEALTH/9702/24/nuclear.cancer/
(CNN) -- The amount of radiation released in the 1979 accident at Pennsylvania's Three Mile Island nuclear power plant and the cancer rates of residents living downwind may have been higher than previously thought, according to a study questioned by critics.
As you admitted, vis-a-vis volcanic vents, steam doesn't last long under 100's or 1000's of feet of cold water.
***But it would ablate and cause the radiation to migrate.
Huh? What's my motivation?
***Answer my questions and I'll try to answer yours.
We can take care of two threats with one shot here. Arm Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea with nuclear weapons and you will have taken care of both North Korea and China.
I hope President Bush makes the right decisions now, because I decade from now I want to be graduating college, not fighting commies in the Far East.
Looks like the latest U.S. policy is an open invitation to invasion. See the following thread:
Would U.S. sacrifice Taiwan? Official says America not required to defend island
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1306400/posts
Firstly,I don't really foresee big US involvement in any cross-straits conflict,unless the Chinese flip their lids & attack US forces or Japan first.The reasoning is that China will plan & implement an attack on Taiwan at it's time of choosing & that most possibly well be when the US is tied up somewhere-maybe an Iraq or an Iran.If you can remember,did the Chinese posture like the way they are doing now before the US attack on Iraq??The US military may certainly be light years ahead,but the will to send them to conflict is going to come from a politician.As far as I've seen,nothing solid has emerged on plans to sell Taiwan the Aegis system(which is all American) which is crucial for Taiwan to have a chance against a fraction of Chinese ballistic missiles or airpower.The same goes for 8 D/E subs(which may never be sold given the need for European cooperation).
bump
Let's not forget about Russia's advanced high speed submersible technology, supercavitation. This threat makes our Navy quite vulnerable. I am sure the Chinese have paid handsomely for this.
The next time you hear about the Kursk tragedy, don't believe the investigative reports. Do believe they were playing with their ultra fast torpedoes.
What questions?
***This is flatly untrue. The following top 3 hits out of 718 from Google for "radiation release" "three mile island" will serve as an example.
I stand corrected, there was no significant radiation release.
***But it would ablate and cause the radiation to migrate.
Never said there would be no radiation released, said you'd be lucky to detect that which was released.
Hello Toddsterpatriot:
Here are my prior questions:
If you were a PRC Navy General with the commission of planning an invasion of Taiwan, would you take your tens of thousands of antiship and antiaircraft missiles and take potshots at the Taiwan Navy, or would you aim a swarm attack at the American Crown Jewels? Keep in mind that just one carrier accident in the Caribbean cost us lots of planes and about $500M during peacetime. Also keep in mind that if you sank every single Taiwanese boat, would that give you the final edge? The real power in the region isn't Taiwan, it's the U.S. But if you sank 2 American carriers, would that give you the edge?
I have other questions that I'd like you to address as well, if you don't mind. Up to this point we have been addressing the possiblity of an unaugmented nuclear accident on a U.S. Aircraft Carrier. The whole point of such a downside is that if Americans see it, they will withdraw from the fighting. Do you agree with that posture?
So, there is actually even more danger once you realize that this sets up the Chinese Generals to focus on the scenario, because they would seek to augment it. All it would take is momentary air superiority, which isn't that difficult to attain when a carrier is sinking and you've got thousands of antiaircraft missiles flying everywhere. The Chinese could send a pilot with the mission of dropping a very low yield nuclear torpedo that helps to augment this disaster scenario. All that they need is the appearance of nuclear radiation, burning ships, drowning sailors and sinking carriers to get the desired effect. It would actually help them to have the American ship still in containment, because afterwards they could send a sub to disarm the nuclear torpedo and then pretend to be heroes.
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