Taiwan's navy & to a lesser extent,it's airforce is losing it's edge in technology-that's a fact.While a huge chunk of China's subs are close to obsolete,they atleast have 4-6 new D/Es-4 Kilo class subs & 2 Song class boats.The Kilo has proven itself to miles ahead of corresponding European designed boats(of the 80s) in NATO exercises in quietness & Taiwan only has 2 combat capable D/E subs.It's also highly unlikely Taiwan's surface fleet will survive the barrage of anti-ship cruise missiles aimed at them-they don't have anything coming close to the Aegis battle management system or vertically launched SM-2 missiles.
In short,Im not exactly cocky about Taiwan's chances
But they would be no match for the Seawolf and Virginia class subs that would be sent in by the US to wipe them out should the shooting start. Despite what the MSN may be saying, Bush has been quietly but strongly supporting Taiwan (espablishing an air base close to the island, putting US troops back there, etc. etc. etc.). The year to worry is 2008 when Hitlery tries to run... and the ChiCom olympics thing.