Posted on 11/21/2004 11:45:29 AM PST by TapTheSource
China Rapidly Modernizes for War With U.S.
Alexandr Nemets Tuesday, Aug. 10, 2004
During the last several months, there have been numerous hints in the Chinese and Taiwanese media indicating that war is more likely than believed here in the West.
Some strategists suggest that the 2008 Olympics scheduled for Beijing constitute a key benchmark, after which a war may be possible. However, it is clear that both nations are preparing for a conflict in the near term, and that 2008 may not be as pivotal as some experts believe.
In fact, China’s media have been repeating the mantra in their news reports that the People’s Liberation Army is preparing to gain a victory in this “internal military conflict in a high-tech environment.”
Chinese war planners have studied carefully the recent U.S.-Iraq War, a war that demonstrated to PLA strategists that U.S. military might is derived from its technological superiority.
China’s military experts conducted similar studies after America’s first Gulf War. One military study written by two Chinese colonels entitled “Unrestricted Warfare” suggested that China could not compete with America’s technological prowess.
Instead, China had to develop “asymmetrical” warfare to defeat the U.S. in any conflict.
Interestingly, “Unrestricted Warfare” became an instant best seller in China after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. In the 1998 book, the Chinese colonels suggested that a successful bombing by Osama bin Laden of the World Trade Center would be an example of this new “unrestricted warfare” concept.
Apparently, China feels much better positioned after the recent Iraq War and wants to challenge the U.S. on a technological level.
Almost instantly after the Iraq War, in May 2003, China’s President and Communist Party General Secretary Hu Jintao declared at the party’s Politburo meeting the necessity of “active support of national defense and modernization of the army.”
Hu emphasized the need for further integrating information technology (IT) into the PLA and mobilizing China’s entire scientific and technological potential for PLA’s needs.
As a result, the PLA’s modernization in these areas has accelerated significantly.
Since the second half of 2003, the PLA has been engaged in the latest stage of its RMA – Revolution in Military Affairs – program, which was officially announced by the chairman of China Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin, in his speech on Sept. 1, 2003.
He emphasized that that PLA should transform itself into a “smaller and much smarter science- and technology-based army.”
Jiang defined the major tasks of new PLA reform as follows:
Reducing PLA’s ranks, primarily ground forces, by 200,000.
Maximizing IT and other advanced technologies – including nanotechnologies, space technologies, electromagnetic weapons, etc.
Improving the educational and qualitative training of PLA servicemen.
Transforming the PLA into an “army of one” that is comparatively smaller and of very high quality, similar to the U.S. Army.
Acquiring the most advanced weaponry.
The Russia Connection
During 2003 and 2004, Russia – jointly with Belarus and Ukraine – has been a major source of advanced weapons for the PLA.
According to official figures from Russia’s weapons export state monopoly, Rosoboronexport, Russia’s total weapons export in 2003 approached $5.7 billion, making Russia the second largest arms exporter after the U.S. (Please note that China is arguably the leading arms exporter in quantity of arms transported, as its weaponry is considerably less expensive than that of the U.S.)
China has purchased 38 percent of Russian arms exports, or around $2.2 billion.
If one takes into account the weapons deliveries from Belarus and Ukraine to China, along with “double use” nuclear and space technologies supplied by Russia to China, then Chinese real arms imports from greater Russia would, in my estimation, be $4 billion.
Clearly, Russia and her allies have been a huge factor supporting the PLA in its rapid modernization and planned confrontation with the U.S.
3-Pronged Strategy
The PLA has been following its “three-way policy” of advanced weapons acquisition.
This three-pronged strategy calls for China to gain technologically advanced weaponry through (1) imports, (2) joint (Chinese-foreign) weapons R&D, and (3) independent weapons R&D within China.
The details of this mechanism were given in the article “China’s military affairs in 2003,” published by the Taiwanese journal Zhonggong yanjiu (China Communism Research) in February 2004.
According to Taiwanese experts, though weapons import and joint R&D still play the major role in PLA modernization, the role of “independent R&D” has been increasing gradually.
Appointed in March 2003, new Chinese Defense Minister (former chief of Defense Ministry’s Armament Division) Col.-Gen. Cao Gangchuan was personally in charge of this work.
He has tried to decrease China’s dependence on Russian arms and increase the share of advanced weapons imports from Germany, France and Israel.
China also is engaged in joint weapons R&D projects with EU and NATO countries, including R&D of mid-range air-to-air missiles and highly precise satellite positioning (Galileo project).
The Air Force
China believes that in a conflict with Taiwan, air dominance will be key to a quick victory.
The PLA has been beefing up its PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and aircraft troops of the PLA Navy (PLAN).
Reportedly, by the end of February 2004, the PLAAF purchased from Russia 76 SU-30 MKK fighters belonging to the advanced “4 plus” generation.
PLAN air troops obtained 24 even more advanced SU-30 MKK fighters.
There is no data regarding future deliveries of the “finished” SU-30 from Russia to China; however, the Chinese aircraft industry is more or less capable now of producing the SU-30 as well as other fighters belonging to the fourth generation, or close to this level.
Dramatic modernization of China’s First Aviation Industry Corp., or AVIC-1, from 2001 to 2004, is of principal importance here (the data in this account are given in the above-mentioned article in the Zhonggong yanjiu journal).
Four major companies are developing China’s jet-manufacturing capability. Interestingly, each of these companies recently underwent radical modernization and upgrading, including advanced equipment obtained from Europe’s Airbus, claiming the help is for “cooperation in passenger aircraft production.”
Shenyang Aircraft Corp. continued, in the past year, to produce SU-27 SK (J-11) heavy fighters from Russian kits at a rate of at least 25 units annually, and the share of Chinese-made components surpassed 70 percent.
The same company now prepares SU-30 MKK (J-11A) fighters for manufacturing.
In the frame of “independent R&D” within China, the Chengdu Aircraft Corp. has mastered the serial production of medium J-10 fighters and FC-1 light fighters. These planes reportedly can match the U.S. F-16 fighter.
Here are some other developments in China’s air wing:
Guizhou Aircraft Corp. developed the advanced Shanying fighter-trainer, while Xian Aircraft Corp. mostly finished developing the new generation of FBC-1 (JH-7) long-range fighter-bomber, which became known as JH-7A.
Other enterprises, belonging to AVIC-1, mastered production of KAB-500 guided bombs and several kinds of air-to-air and air-to ground missiles.
By the end of 2003, the new generation of Flying Leopard, i.e., JH-7A, was being tested. This fighter-bomber’s weapons include new air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles of beyond-vision range, guided bombs, etc. This aircraft is adapted for anti-radar reconnaissance, effective low-altitude strikes against large naval vessels, and general strikes of ground-based and naval targets.
By the end of 2004, as a result of supply from Russia and increased fighter production at AVIC-1 subsidiaries, the number of advanced fighters of various kinds in PLAN air troops and the PLAAF – including SU-27 (J-11), SU-30 (J-11A), J-10, FC-1, Shanying, FBC-1 (JH-7) and JH-7A – could surpass an estimated 400 units. The Sea Component
China also sees its navy as critical in any successful assault on Taiwan.
The PLA Navy (PLAN) has numerous Chinese-Russian projects under way this year and next, including:
Purchase of two Russian Sovremenny destroyers, equipped with improved ship-to-ship supersonic cruise missiles (SSM) Sunburn 3M80MBE of 240 km range. Initially, Sunburn had a range of 160 km. However, in 2001-2003, Raduga Design Bureau in Dubna (about 150 km north of Moscow) designed, under PLAN’s orders, a much more lethal version of SSM.
Very probably, serial production of new SSM would be mastered in China, so it would be installed on two Sovremenny destroyers, purchased by PLAN in 1999-2000, on Chinese-built Luhu- and Luhai-class destroyers as well as Jiangwei-class frigates. According to media reports in the Hong Kong and Taiwan media, two new Sovremenny destroyers could be transferred to PLAN before the end of 2005.
Purchase of eight Kilo submarines, equipped by “super-advanced” 3M54E (CLUB-S) submarine-launched anti-ship missiles. In 2003, China already obtained 50 missiles of this kind, which would greatly improve PLAN’s striking capacity. China intends to organize production of these missiles. They probably also could be used on Chinese-built conventional submarines of the Song class.
New Kilo submarines could enter PLAN service in 2005 or the first half of 2006. (Information regarding destroyers and conventional submarines was repeated in several articles in Zhonggong yanjiu in January 2003 through February 2004 and in multiple media reports from Hong Kong during the same period.)
Construction of “093 project” nuclear attack submarines and the “094 project” strategic nuclear submarine, using Russian plans and technology, at Huludao (a port city in northeast Liaoning province) military shipbuilding plant. By the end of 2005, PLAN would have in its service at least two “093 project” and at least one “094 project” nuclear submarines. Reportedly, Russia had to make significant improvements in design and weapons of these submarines, in accordance with Chinese customers’ requirements.
Along with Russian contracts is the construction of a new generation of destroyers, frigates and conventional submarines at modernized shipbuilding plants in Dalian, Shanghai, Qingdao and Wuhan cities. An upgraded PLA could be capable pf establishing sea control around Taiwan in 2008.
Aso important is the fact that both the PLAAF and PLAN would be equipped, by 2008, with perfect military information technology systems, more precisely by C4ISR (command, control, computers, communication, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) systems, which would make the use of the listed weapon systems much more effective.
I agree with your assessment of Chinese view towards weakness or perceived weakness. It's a little bit like how Germany viewed the U.S. after we sent 10,000 men wandering in the hills to find Pancho Villa, to no avail. The Germans perceived it as weakness and went ahead with their war plans.
Here is my swag on what is going to happen in Taiwan, posted on an earlier thread, "China Sets Condition for Resuming Talks with Taiwan".
1) The one-child policy has created a testosterone-rich generation the likes of which no one on earth has ever seen. China will have an entire army of what they call "little dictators" who have few prospects of finding women, and they will be very aggressively pushing their old-guard superiors for action on the Taiwan issue. The final straw will be that they'll be promised wives when they invade Taiwan.
2) Their army is as much as 200 Million strong, which was the size predicted in Revelation in the Bible, called "The Kings of the East." They can afford casualties in the range of 10 million, which is 5 times bigger than our army ever was. China has some unfinished business with Vietnam, having fought to a standoff in 1979. They might do a run through Vietnam first so that their troups are more battle-hardened and arrogant, knowing that the US didn't exactly win there. The added bonus is they get one of the largest warm water ports in the world.
3) Taiwan has never declared independence. It's not like the brave Estonians standing up to Russia when communism fell. They're like an impudent child claiming to have sovereignty over China. Their fatal miscalculation is that they know they'll need Americans to fight for them if they are in a war, but Americans will be reluctant to shed blood for an ally that didn't have the courage to declare independence until they were invaded on an "internal dispute". The chinese will hammer away at this in the press.
4) Chinese weapons policy has been to cycle through older generations of weaponry and stay about one generation behind the latest stuff. They sold their old silkworm missiles to the Iranians and used that money to upgrade their newer missiles, which are inferior to US missiles but they only need to be functional. The plan is to overwhelm defenses with superior numbers. No ship can stand up to 50 supersonic silkworm missiles aimed at it. They have similar tactics for other systems, such as anti aircraft missiles.
5) The chinese went up against Americans in Korea. They sent in 300 thousand infantry up against a much smaller American force. The key was that they only had rifles for about 1 in 5 personnel. So they would tell one to go as far as he could till he got shot, then the 2nd one would pick up the rifle & keep charging, and so on. Today, every one of those infantrymen has an automatic rifle. They are not as well equipped as their US counterparts but they can afford a lot of casualties. Vietnam, Iraq, Somalia and other engagements proved that you can't replace feet on the ground with air superiority. No matter how advanced the air force is nor how many smart bombs get dropped, the US won't be able to dislodge a standing army without sending in massive troup numbers and experiencing casualties. If our press made a big deal about losing 1000 US soldiers in Iraq, they'll have a heydey with 500 thousand casualties. Seeing the press reaction emboldens the Chinese.
6) China is building a blue-water navy including submarines. They might be able to achieve a standoff in the surrounding ocean, limiting the ability to resupply american troups while the chinese troups will pillage Taiwan. Once America loses 2 nuclear powered aircraft carriers (with the resulting radioactive plumes), the calculation is that the U.S. will lose stomach for more fighting.
7) The trick to defeating these strategies with minimal casualties will be special forces operating in Taiwan. They will need to have the ability to direct standoff weapons fire onto individual tanks and squad units in order to be effective.
8) The most likely outcome will be that Taiwan will be a giant pile of rubble. Casualties could run as high as WWII.
If China wins, it could be a Pyrrhic victory. If the US wins, it will take a whole generation to repair and rebuild.
Any hostile action by China would completely devastate it's economy. The more integrated it's economy becomes in the world the more difficult, if not impossible, it will become for China to solve any problems militarily.
China will be conquered by Freedom before it even knows it, to the benefit of it's citizens and the world.
I guess we will just agree to disagree on this issue. I am optimistic that I am right. :)
It's still around I build amercian products but it does get a little tougher every year. I work three times as hard as I did ten years ago.
THANKS TONS.
Any hostile action by China would completely devastate it's economy. The more integrated it's economy becomes in the world the more difficult, if not impossible, it will become for China to solve any problems militarily.
China will be conquered by Freedom before it even knows it, to the benefit of it's citizens and the world.
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China's interests are to keep getting all those orders from Wal-Mart. I agree and don't think that is bad for us. The other fear expressed on this thread is they're "preparing for war with the US" which is a scare tactic promoted by whoever wrote the article we are responding to- and those who believe it or want others to believe it on this thread. To believe it you must assume the Chinese, even their communist leadership, are both stoopid and suicidal. I do not, so you and I agree
stalin and Hitler had a nonagression pact before hitler invaded.
The calculation on the part of the Chinese is that yes, America would sit idly by while it watched on CNN 2 or 3 of its nuclear powered aircraft carriers spectacularly sink under a hail of (admittedly inferior) anti-ship missile fire. The same way we watched the evacuation of Vietnam.
North Vietnam traded 600 thousand casualties for political positioning in a long-term play. China is willing to trade almost 20 times that number of casualties.
I think the timetable is some time in the next 15 years or so.
Recall the USS Stark, which went down from only 1 missile fired from 1 aircraft and it was supposedly in readiness state (hey, it was an Iraqi plane that sunk it, I almost forgot). It isn't that much of a challenge to overwhelm the defenses of a ship at sea. After that, it is a direct tradeoff in blood.
My pleasure...hope this stuff is usefull.
Excellent suggestions. Perhaps we could link up with these folks and really start pushing a boycott of Communist China's slave-made goods.
http://www.chinasupport.net/site.php
yea I haven't been reading the rest of the thread, but I do think most reasonable people would discount a war between us and China that was deliberately sought after by the Chinese. It may still be possible that a confrontation over Tawian may escalate to dangerous proportions, but even this I think is unprobable.
However, what China will probably continue to do is proliferate weapons all over the world to rouge nations and use it's superior military as a negotiating point to get trade concessions and territorial concessions. The United States needs to have the strongest possible military to thwart these efforts and have leverage with China.
Once China is completely under the spell of capitalism (and it is close now) I think that China will become more and more similar to us - in that our best interests (selfishly) are seeing other countries prosper and remain peaceful in order to enrich ourselves from the increased trade.
The more capitalist China becomes the more it will be in it's interest to keep the world safe to keep the prosperity of the it's citizens at what they are used to. Businessmen are already proliferating throughout the Communist party structure and they will (again, selfishly) try to leverage the party to gain profit for themselves, which requires the country remain at peace.
With Freedom, everyone pursues their own self interst to the benefit of all. Pretty neat if you ask me!
Obviously China still has a ways to go in this - terrible human rights violation are still a problem. It remains unclear whether this economic freedom will lead to social freedom (such as expression, press etc...). Previous theorists may have thought so, but with Russia and China growing so rapidly... doubt is being cast on this.
A little discussed possibility is that right wing type dictatorships, which are able to supress leftism and therefore encourage economic growth more than democracies (which fall prey to leftism), may become the 'new' world powers.
How this might play out I don't know... If we keep up the rightward shift in this country we don't need to worry about it. :)
Don't worry about China for now. Deal with Iran first. China probably won't be aggressive before the 2008 Olympic (unless Taiwan officially declares independence before that).
After 2008, President Hilary Clinton or President Jean-Francois Kerry will deal with it.
I suggest you at least skim the thread...very interesting and eye-opening observations from a number of FReepers.
"I think the timetable is some time in the next 15 years or so."
I agree. If current free-trade trends continue, sometime between 2020 and 2030 China's military will reach technological/personnel-skill parity with the United States, and their development of coal gasification/liquefaction (CGL) plants will give them sufficient domestic petroleum production to engage in long term war. On top of that the US will be stripped of most of it's industry for long term war, while they will have gained (with free-trader supplied technology and funding) all the industry they need for long term war.
"Recall the USS Stark, which went down from only 1 missile fired from 1 aircraft and it was supposedly in readiness state (hey, it was an Iraqi plane that sunk it, I almost forgot). It isn't that much of a challenge to overwhelm the defenses of a ship at sea. After that, it is a direct tradeoff in blood."
The USS Stark was never sunk. It was hit by two Exocet missiles, one of which did not explode. However, it's remaining fuel contributed significantly to the fire that damaged much of the superstructure. The captain later admitted that the Phalanx, due to some earlier reliability problems, had been switched off. The ship was later repaired and put back into service. But 20 years from now, the American steel makers that do the major ship parts that would have been involved in the repair will be out of business. Their equipment bought up and shipped overseas or scrapped by the Chinese. Then we will have no major repair capability for any damaged ships.
Or IOW Cold War Redux, this time with a relatively healthy semi-capitalist (fascist) economy driving the other side.
What price Slick's and the Bushes' "peace dividend" now? What price tax cuts?
The Chinese need to raise taxes and apply the proceeds to naval shipbuilding (but don't tell them that) instead of jacking up interest rates to cool their bubble economy. We, OTOH, need to abate our Park Avenue tax cuts a bit and apply the proceeds toward deficit moderation and force modernization. A run on the dollar would kill us right now.
Same thing they did in the 1930's when they starved the War Department budget until soldiers had to train with wooden guns, while the GOP's Business Wing (aka the Rockefeller/Dole/Bush Wing) were busting a gut selling Gulf Coast oil to the Nazis and scrap iron to the Japanese. We saw some of that good American scrap iron later, when doctors took Jap shrapnel out of American soldiers, and according to legend, American trademarks like "Singer" were still legible on some of the shrapnel.
What happens if the next generation of Taiwanewse really want it? Militarily, the CHICOM haven't a prayer. Politically, could be another story.
Stupid? Well, yeah. But then again, Kerry got a lot of votes in this country!
They have certainly been hinting at it. It will be interesting to see their approach to the US since Kerry lost the election.
If you are shareholders of Google or Cisco, call your CEO to tell them to stop helping Chinese Communists to filter out offensive (to the communies) keywords from their search engines and to stop help the communies to build firewalls to prevent Chinese dissidents and young people from seeing the world outside.
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