The calculation on the part of the Chinese is that yes, America would sit idly by while it watched on CNN 2 or 3 of its nuclear powered aircraft carriers spectacularly sink under a hail of (admittedly inferior) anti-ship missile fire. The same way we watched the evacuation of Vietnam.
North Vietnam traded 600 thousand casualties for political positioning in a long-term play. China is willing to trade almost 20 times that number of casualties.
I think the timetable is some time in the next 15 years or so.
Recall the USS Stark, which went down from only 1 missile fired from 1 aircraft and it was supposedly in readiness state (hey, it was an Iraqi plane that sunk it, I almost forgot). It isn't that much of a challenge to overwhelm the defenses of a ship at sea. After that, it is a direct tradeoff in blood.
"I think the timetable is some time in the next 15 years or so."
I agree. If current free-trade trends continue, sometime between 2020 and 2030 China's military will reach technological/personnel-skill parity with the United States, and their development of coal gasification/liquefaction (CGL) plants will give them sufficient domestic petroleum production to engage in long term war. On top of that the US will be stripped of most of it's industry for long term war, while they will have gained (with free-trader supplied technology and funding) all the industry they need for long term war.
"Recall the USS Stark, which went down from only 1 missile fired from 1 aircraft and it was supposedly in readiness state (hey, it was an Iraqi plane that sunk it, I almost forgot). It isn't that much of a challenge to overwhelm the defenses of a ship at sea. After that, it is a direct tradeoff in blood."
The USS Stark was never sunk. It was hit by two Exocet missiles, one of which did not explode. However, it's remaining fuel contributed significantly to the fire that damaged much of the superstructure. The captain later admitted that the Phalanx, due to some earlier reliability problems, had been switched off. The ship was later repaired and put back into service. But 20 years from now, the American steel makers that do the major ship parts that would have been involved in the repair will be out of business. Their equipment bought up and shipped overseas or scrapped by the Chinese. Then we will have no major repair capability for any damaged ships.