Posted on 11/03/2004 4:21:13 PM PST by M 91 u2 K
HOW THE VOTE MOVED: Kerry won the center and the left. Over to Noam: Not only did Kerry win by an 86-13 margin among self-described liberals, he also won by a 55-45 margin among self-described moderates. So how'd Bush pull it off? He won 84-15 among self-described conservatives, and, more importantly, he made sure conservatives comprised a much bigger chunk of the electorate than they did in 2000. (Conservatives comprised about 34 percent of the electorate yesterday, versus 29 percent in 2000 -- a huge shift, raw numbers-wise.) Anyone anticipating a conciliatory second Bush term should stop and consider how much Bush owes his base. There you have the Rove strategy in a nutshell. If the ideological demographics had stayed the same as they had been in 2000, Kerry might have won. Two other small points: all those predictions of gay marriage moving African-Americans toward the Republicans didn't pan out. All those predictions of the youth vote going for Kerry did pan out - but they were trounced by seniors shifting to Bush (I think the gay issue mattered there as well). The GOP's weak spot is that they aren't winning over the young; and that they won't have gays to kick around for ever. I notice that in California and Massachusetts, marriage equality candidates all won big. The polarization continues. Let federalism work. - 4:19:57 PM
HIS FIRST MOVE: Not too encouraging: The Bush administration announced Wednesday that it will run out of maneuvering room to manage the government's massive borrowing needs in two weeks, putting more pressure on Congress to raise the debt ceiling when it convenes for a special post-election session. Oh, well.
MARY'S BACK! With her wife on the stage with the Cheneys and Bushes.
WAR WAS NOT THE ISSUE: I have to say it's almost funny that for the past few months, I've been harangued about the selfishness of gays who put their issues ahead of pressing matters like the war, and yet the exit polls show something rather different. The gay vote for Bush was - amazingly - only slightly down on 2000. Many of them obviously thought the war or the economy was pre-eminent. But for evangelicals, the issue of "moral values" trumped the war! It wasn't about the war on terror for the Bush base. It was about the war on gay unions. Oh, the ironies. - 3:53:38 PM
EMAIL OF THE DAY I: "To hell with being gracious, EAT SHIT SULLIVAN! Despite all your oh so noble commentary today, when things started getting rough, you bailed. I hope Soros eased you pain with a little green."
EMAIL OF THE DAY II: "I am a 25 year-old gay man, and I can't even describe how saddened I am today by the re-election of President Bush and the numerous state amendments banning gay marriage that were passed on election day. I'm not really angry... just very sad and afraid. I don't know what country I live in anymore. I thought this was the land of freedom. I thought I was free to pursue my own happiness. But right now I feel like my country hates me. What is going on?"
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "So, George W. Bush won. And he's done so by a solid margin. The Democrats' attempted coup managed to last all of eight hours. Not only is the President the first candidate to win a majority of the vote in a Presidential Election since 1988, but he also won more popular votes than any other candidate in history. The Democrats spent months telling us that high voter turnout would equal a win for them but, as it turns out, when 60% of the electorate showed up at the polls it translated into a Bush lead of nearly four million votes. In short: take that, you sons of bitches. The Democrats are now talking about how this is a signal that Bush should 'bring the country together'. Translated into American, this means 'now that you've won, you should surrender to us.' The hell with that. We've won. Winning means not having to say you're sorry... Those who didn't support Bush can go and perform a certain anatomically impossible act. They lost, now they can sit in the back of the bus. Thank God Almighty." - Adam Yoshida, calling it as he sees it, on his popular blog. - 3:23:26 PM
A MANDATE FOR CULTURE WAR: That's Bill Bennett's conclusion. He won't be the only one. What we're seeing, I think, is a huge fundamentalist Christian revival in this country, a religious movement that is now explicitly political as well. It is unsurprising, of course, given the uncertainty of today's world, the devastating attacks on our country, and the emergence of so many more liberal cultures in urban America. And it is completely legitimate in this country for such views to be represented in public policy, however much I disagree with them. But the intensity of the passion, and the inherently totalist nature of religiously motivated politics means deep social conflict if we are not careful. Our safety valve must be federalism. We have to live and let live. As blue states become more secular, and red states become less so, the only alternative to a national religious war is to allow different states to pursue different options. That goes for things like decriminalization of marijuana, abortion rights, stem cell research and marriage rights. Forcing California and Mississippi into one model is a recipe for disaster. Federalism is now more important than ever. I just hope that Republican federalists understand this. I fear they don't. - 1:07:45 PM
ACCOUNTABILITY: Here's an email with which I concur entirely: I didn't vote for Bush for lots of reasons. But it seems to me that maybe the result, much as it was not what I wanted, will be good for the country. We are in the middle of a war whose outcome is very much in doubt. We have a fiscal policy that may or may not prove successful. Issues that have seemed remote to many like abortion and the Patriot Act's definition of rights and privacy are likely to become more immediate over the next few years. Had we changed leadershop now, it would have been difficult to assign accountability, for good or bad, for these policies and decisions. I always feared, in fact, that Kerry would have had little chance of success in the face of a conservative chorus of "everything was going in the right direction in Iraq when we handed it over to you". Whatever the result, over thee next few years we all will be better able to asses the success or failure of many things that are unfinished now, and hold one team accountable. Exactly. My main fear with a Kerry victory was that the hard right would never have given him a chance in the war, and would have savaged him as commander-in-chief in order to pave the way for a victory in 2008. Ratcheting the country back to fiscal sanity would also have been a thankless task. Now, Bush will face the consequences of his own policies and we will be able to judge him on that. He has no excuses any more. I hope he succeeds in Iraq, in reforming social security. But no one should give him an easy pass if he fails. - 11:31:35 AM
THE IMPACT ON GAYS: I've been trying to think of what to say about what appears to be the enormous success the Republicans had in using gay couples' rights to gain critical votes in key states. In eight more states now, gay couples have no relationship rights at all. Their legal ability to visit a spouse in hospital, to pass on property, to have legal protections for their children has been gutted. If you are a gay couple living in Alabama, you know one thing: your family has no standing under the law; and it can and will be violated by strangers. I'm not surprised by this. When you put a tiny and despised minority up for a popular vote, the minority usually loses. But it is deeply, deeply dispiriting nonetheless. A lot of gay people are devastated this morning, and terrified. We have seen, and not for the first time, how using fear of a minority can be so effective a tool in building a political movement. The single most important issue for Republican voters, according to exit polls, was not the war on terror or Iraq or the economy. It was "moral values." Karl Rove understood the American psyche better than I did. By demonizing gay couples, the Republicans were able to bring in whole swathes of new anti-gay believers into their party. With new senators Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn, two of the most anti-gay politicians in America, we can only brace ourselves for what is now coming.
FEDERALISM WORKS: At the same time, gays can still appeal to the fair-minded center. After fanning the flames of fear for much of the year, the president himself recently came out in favor of civil unions. That puts him at odds with the initiatives passed so easily across the country. I do not believe a majority exists for denying gay couples legally protected relationships. The national exit polls showed that 27 percent support marriage rights, 37 percent support civil unions and only 35 percent want to keep gay couples from having any rights at all. There are still many states where it is safe to be a gay couple or an openly gay person. We have the right to marry in one state, and in that state, pro-equality legislators were all re-elected handily. In California, we are on the brink of having almost-equality under the law. Around the civilized world, gay relationships are increasingly accepted as worthy of dignity and respect. The passage of so many anti-gay amendments in so many states reduces the need, by any rational measure, for a federal amendment that would scar the Constitution with discrimination. We need therefore to be even more emphatic about the need for a federalist response to an issue best left to the states. If we can avoid the FMA, we can live to fight another day.
STAND TALL: But one more thing is important. The dignity of our lives and our relationships as gay people is not dependent on heterosexual approval or tolerance. Our dignity exists regardless of their fear. We have something invaluable in this struggle: the knowledge that we are in the right, that our loves are as deep and as powerful and as God-given as their loves, that our relationships truly are bonds of faith and hope that are worthy, in God's eyes and our own, of equal respect. Being gay is a blessing. The minute we let their fear and ignorance enter into our own souls, we lose. We have gained too much and come through too much to let ourselves be defined by others. We must turn hurt back into pride. Cheap, easy victories based on untruth and fear and cynicism are pyrrhic ones. In time, they will fall. So hold your heads up high. Do not give in to despair. Do not let the Republican party rob you of your hopes. This is America. Equality will win in the end. - 10:46:57 AM
it was sweet.
"Anyone anticipating a conciliatory second Bush term should stop."
This is the only true line in the article (though I admit, I only skimmed it).
I agree with Sullivan:
W clearly RIGGED the election by turning out his CONSERVATIVE base, in higher numbers than in previous election cycle.
Can you say delusional.
"all those predictions of gay marriage moving African-Americans toward the Republicans didn't pan out."
Actually I think there are indications that it did pan out.
You're a lib'ral--trust your feelings.
At least 3/4 of self-described moderates are in fact centre-left even by the New Zealand standard. True centrists lay omewhere more to the right.
I guess he's been hanging out at the DU too long.
"Moderate" is the label 'rats use for themselves when they are not quite Marxist or are ashamed of the label "liberal".
I dumped him, too, when he started to be more GAY than any other topic. Sorry, but there are so many more important things going on these days. And 'Mary and her wife' -- HOW CRUDE. Good riddance to the whole pouty bunch of them.
Thank God, the left just doesn't get it. As long as they stay in such total self denial about their support nationwide the Conservatives can keep taking more and more of the House and Senate. By the time they figure out what's really going on we will have all 9 Supreme Court justices appointed by Republicans.
They've all lost it.
I have been gathering the reaction around campus today. Except for the pockets of Bush people around here, there's a great mood of "how-the-hell-did-this-happen-Kerry-was-our-savior-Bush-is-so-evil-Republicans-are-stupid". The majority of this country has rejected Kerry and his tired liberal ideas and they can't handle it.
The schadenfreude factor is very delicious though. I'm going to enjoy this for a while.
Yeah, maybe they can locate David Brock and all get drunk together.
Translation, if we can keep the courts in the mix, we can nationalize gay marriage another day, or at least mandate it the unprotected states via the courts.
Whew- isn't it amazing?
I'm always uneasy with one-issue folks- whatever the issue.
Andrew just completed his relatively short journey into oblivion.
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