Posted on 11/03/2004 4:40:50 AM PST by miltonim
Once again, exit polls (search) received a black eye in the presidential election.
By the time most of the polls closed in precincts across the country Tuesday night, real numbers began to suggest that the early estimations that had been so upbeat for Sen.
John Kerry were over-inflated — so much so, that FOX News Channel decided to quit using the exit poll results Tuesday evening, calling them inaccurate and unreliable.
All suggested unusually strong numbers for Kerry Early numbers looked so positive for Kerry that FOX News analyst Jim Pinkerton, at 3:30 p.m. EST, said, "I think it looks good for angry Democrats."
NBC News' David Gregory said Bush "appeared subdued," while ABC News' Terry Moran noted the president had expressed a "rare sense of doubt."
Later on FOX News, analysts talked openly about how some actual results contradicted exit polls numbers.
"Either the exit polls are completely wrong or George Bush loses," FOX News analyst Susan Estrich said. By midnight, Bush was declared the winner in Florida, though throughout the day the state had been predicted a winner for Kerry.
Similar predictions in Ohio were also found to be wrong as the state was put in Bush's column.
"We began noticing there was some very odd things," in the polls, Bush spokeswoman Karen Hughes told FOX News.
"We knew there were some problems from the get-go."
One Republican strategist told FOX News that "in the beginning of the night, we were asking how we could have been so far off.
"I bought a box of Kleenex. But I didn't open them," he said. Exit polls did elicit some news about voters' moods, which suggested that neither candidate had a clear mandate on the issues.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Has anyone asked.."why do we even need exit polls?"
Another post here indicates that the man that owns the polling company oding the exit polls worked for CBS at one time several years ago in the same type of position.
The position was as a democrat shill....IMHO
My son, a stauch Bush supporter, says he wouldn't tell an exit-poller anything. Perhaps he is not the only one...
Old media is one of the biggest losers this year, and will continue to decline in influence because of these continued flubs and obvious bias.
The exit polls we're a real shame. I hope we have seen the end of them!
I think exit pollsters were also indicating VA, SC, & NC were going to be to close to call.
When we clicked on the television this morning, Tim Russert and Tom Brokow appeared (not our favorites by any stretch) and there was little Timmy, down in the mouth and we knew instantly that it looked good for Bush! We flipped over to Fox (which we call the democracy station) and the rest is history! Congratulations to the Bush Administration, the Freepers who got out the vote and constant encouragement and thanks to Rush, Sean, Neal, Michael et al and Fox News. America is the greatest land on God's green earth. Oh yeah, I hope Susan Estrich has a lot of egg on her face this morning. She really got our goat last evening with her "exit" poll information.
The public is dying to know the outcome of the election, and exit polls suggest that outcome hours quicker than the actual returns do.But the interest of the public is not the same as "the public interest." Conflating the two is a standard journalistic con; the public interest is better served if the election is decided by voters who don't know what the results in Florida were - and certainly not what CBS claims they were.
The calling of FL 2000 before the polls in FL were all closed was a travesty, but even if called accurately it wrongly affects voter behavior elsewhere. The institution of broadcast calling of the states before the polls are all closed should be abolished. Indeed broadcast journalism itself - see the CBS Memos - should be abolished.
Why Broadcast Journalism is
Unnecessary and Illegitimate
I kept telling everyone that these polls were not accurate since most of them were unreliable since you could vote numerous times, which of course changes the stats.
"Exit Polls" are as valuable to the study of elections as tarot cards and ouija boards.
This question should always be answered by true Americans with "None of your damned business, now #$%& off!"
ESPECIALLY when it's the AP asking the question.
It's hard to believe that such an untrustworthy, agenda-driven organization was selected for the task, and that ALL the networks were content to use their numbers. Didn't they learn anything from the VNS fiasco in 2002?
but our guess is.......intentional!!
and Larry Sabato is blasting the pollsters BIG TIME!!! A disgrace!!!
I didn't see Estrich on FNC after it started becoming apparent that Bush had Ohio. She made two laughably false predictions in a ten minute period. I guess she decided to go get drunk somewhere, though she might have been already.
They were attempting to keep people away from the polls....that's what was with the exit polls.
Larry Sabato has egg running down his face this morning too. He was totally wrong in his prediction that the President would lose. He should be canned by Fox because I'll never believe anything he says from now on.
It was intentional.
I am sure of it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.