Posted on 11/02/2004 3:02:33 PM PST by Howlin
Whatever Susan Estrich is on , I want some.
Estrich is spinning like a top for Kerry.
GOOD! AND IF THESE RESULT HOLD UP, LETS HOPE EXIT POLLS ARE DISCREDITED ONCE AND FOR ALL. THEY ONLY HURT OUR DEMOCRACY AND FEE THE MEDIA PROPAGANDA MACHINE.
Interesting. That makes me feel better about Ohio. Think about it. We're seeing precincts now where some nutburger from the Green Party--AS A WRITE-IN--is pulling 6.25% of the vote. Those have got to be the more liberal precincts in the state, right? So maybe, just maybe, ones where the President will do better, will come in later.
Or maybe I'm grasping at straws. We'll see.
}:-)4
Keep an eyes out for NH.
All the polls, exit polls put Kerry ahead ... but the ACTUAL NUMBERS don't match.
Rather drunkenly rooting Bush on.
Susan Estrich sounds desperate. Good!
I had the same results when I kept refreshing the SOS Ohio webpage. Went over to Drudge, clicked on Ohio and got the latest numbers showing counties reporting.
In keeping w/Kristol's comments. K-Lo posted this on the Corner:
ANOTHER INSIDE READ ON EXITS [KJL]
Either there is a huge methodological flaw in the exit polling data, or there has been a transformative change in the nature of the electorate. The former is far more likely. Which means that much of the media's narrative of the election so far looks to be very much wide of the mark. Imagine that.
Let me explain what I mean. Here are several data points that indicate that something is amiss on the matter of exit polling:
**In 2000, George W. Bush lost the white Catholic vote in Wisconsin. This time, he appears to be winning it by 10 percentage points. Yet I believe the exit polls have the white Catholic vote shrinking from more than one-third of the population to less than one-quarter. There's no reasonable explanation for it.
***In North Carolina, the exit polls show the voting population to be 63 percent women. That is obviously far too large – and it explains why the exit polls have the President up by only one in North Carolina. That figure won't stand up when the votes are counted; the President will carry North Carolina by a wide margin.
*** The exit polls have President Bush up in South Carolina by only seven points. He will win South Carolina by more than seven; you can take that to the bank. The Latino population makes up a larger percentage of Florida's population than in 2000. The President is carrying the Latino population in Florida by a greater margin than four years ago. Yet the exit polls have Latinos comprising a far smaller voting percentage of the population than four years ago.
***In Ohio, the exit polls show the vote among men to be 50-50. The final votes will almost surely be higher than that. ***President Bush is winning 43 percent of the Hispanic vote -- which, if that remains, means he should win re-election.
***Florida is a state in which you can measure absentee ballots early to get a good idea of where things stand. Right now we are dominating in absentee ballots in Florida. To be precise: we are leading by 154,000 votes – while in 2000, we won by only 98,000. So we are in much better shape this election that the last on this significant matter.
It’s worth recalling that in 2000, the final exit polls were significantly different than the actual vote count in at least seven states. And 2000 may be seen as the high-water mark for exit polling, compared to this year.
Something is clearly amiss. Indeed, this election may be a dagger at the heart of exit polling. The larger point is that we believe the President will not only carry Florida and Ohio; he has a real shot at carrying New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan. That doesn't mean he'll carry all those states -- but it does mean that some of the post-mortems you are seeing on television and elsewhere are wildly irresponsible. I should add that when you talk to some very smart political reporters, they will tell you that they are very suspicious of the exit polling data sets. And they should be. We've gone through a similar situation once before, in 2000. You'd think people would learn. But you would be wrong.
The bottom line is that people need to exercise reasonable judgment and patience; watching some political commentators take to the airwaves before 7:00 p.m. to interpret the results of the election is like watching housepainters pretending to be portrait artists.
There is an obvious solution to all this: people -- especially reporters and commentators -- should wait until the votes are cast and counted. And until that happens, they should withhold making judgments based on information that is at the very least suspect.
Posted at 08:40 PM
Estrich @ Fox "I've learned to always be wary of bad polls against you"
Thats because the 'polls' are often skewed in YOUR favor, and if even THEY (your friends) are telling you bad things you KNOW you are in trouble.
I only smoke outside too.
My little TV in the garage bit the dust after the 2000 election.
If so,I'm the Queen of England....VICTORIA REGINA. LOL
FNC probably figured -- like the other netowrks -- that good news is not news.
U.S. PRESIDENT / OHIO
STATUS CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE % EV
Bush
(Incumbent)
163,181 51% 0
Kerry
158,724 49% 0
Badnarik
965 0% 0
Peroutka
577 0% 0
4% precincts reporting - Updated 8:51 p.m. ET
Closing in on Ohio, Fl & MI getting wider !!!
PARTY tonight !!!!!!!!
WTFis up w/ fox ????
Ohio is making me nervous. What can offset?
We'll start seeing numbers in a bit more than 8 minutes (polls close in South Dakota in that time).
Estrich is so pissed! She looks like she's ready to pop. Hilarious. And what's with her southern accent?
The nets are right on this one. South Florida (Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Broward) have not started reporting any significant numbers yet. Bush's lead will shrink as these counties start reporting.
I saw that! She got SNIPPY with Brit too!
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