Posted on 10/31/2004 5:20:29 PM PST by motife
A separate Gallup poll of likely voters indicated a similar split nationwide, with 49 percent choosing Bush and 47 percent taking Kerry -- a virtual tie given the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Independent candidate Ralph Nader had 1 perc
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Thanks for posting the LV results with the correct headline and not the BS 49-49 headline from Aaron Brown.
Numbers posted elsewhere don't agree with link above.
(passing out Xanex and Oxycontin all around)
is it 49-47 or 49-49 -- because there website says 49-49 but the text says 49-47
Make mine an IV drip, please.
The Gallup website itself is showing 49 to 49.. CNN is showing 49 to 47
It was 49-47. CNN put all the undecideds in Kerry's column. Garbage poll!
States outside margin of errorThose states were Wisconsin, where Bush led by 8 points, and Minnesota, where Kerry led by 8 points.
In the other states, Bush had leads of 2 points in Iowa and 4 points in Pennsylvania. Kerry had leads of 3 points in Florida and 4 points in Ohio.
From Joe Scarborough's website for today:
• October 31, 2004| 1:12 p.m. ET
Who is smelling victory today? (Joe Scarborough)
Just a couple of quick thoughts as the election streaks down the home stretch.
As mentioned yesterday, Republican insiders on the Bush campaign are smelling victory as internal polls in most of the swing states are inching their way. Now we read the same from an Associated Press article posted early this morning--except this time it is Kerry supporters who are sensing the tide may be breaking against them.
This from the AP:
"The men were campaigning Sunday in tightly contested battleground states. Both had appearances scheduled in Florida and Ohio; Kerry was also speaking in New Hampshire.
A new poll showed the president moving ahead of Kerry in the popular vote, and Democrats said their private surveys hinted at momentum for Bush."
Ohio polls also appear to be breaking Bush's way. A victory by the President in Florida and Ohio makes Tuesday an early evening.
On the other side of the equation, a Kerry victory in Florida dooms W's reelection chances. The only reason I bring up a Florida loss for Bush, which I have been dismissing for weeks now, is because the remarkable scenes at the Supervisor of Elections office in my hometown of Pensacola, Florida. Voters waited in line for up to five hours yesterday in a heavily Republican leaning area, and yet it was a decidedly Democratic crowd that was spending their Saturday waiting to vote for John Kerry.
Karl Rove and the Bush White House has known this election was going to be about voter turnout for four years now. We will see if they were prepared for the onslaught of early voters they are now facing.
One final thought. Taking a quick look at the front page of the New York Times this morning was telling. While Bush supporters were holding signs in praise of their candidate, the top Kerry photo showed a father, his young daughter and a baby doll with stickers emblazoned with a lined out "W."
When the election is more about who you hate than who you love, you are less likely to get out and vote. Just ask all those Clinton-haters in the 1990s, who despite seeing the Democratic president as evil personified, never got within striking distance of getting him out of office.
I suspect the hoard of Bush haters will wake up Wednesday morning learning the same bitter lesson.
I'll check back in from Flyover Space in the next few hours. Till then, don't give in to hate.
Peace out.
-Joe
Thoughts? E-mail me at JScarborough@msnbc.com
This is a bit better than previous posting, but I am still going to stroke out before this is over.
I think that you are referring to the 49-49 poll.
According to this ling, that other poll was specifically over the battleground states.
Cnn/Gallup. where is the Gallup poll? The two are not the same thing.
Shaken or stirred?
Their numbers acually show Kerry having a suddenly better result than Busn about Iraq. That indicates they polled during the height of the refuted 377 missing tons (of 400,000 secured) story. The public has had a chance to get the straight dope on this now, having heard from the Pentagon.
http://www.unspun.info
sheesh
Fla and Ohio K leads??
pU
We will know Tuesday how accurate these polls have been.
I personally think Republicans are being undersampled by at least 5%.
Even with these polls Bush wins 270 to 264. Even though they are BS.. Bush still wins.
If you allocate the remaining undecideds to Kerry its a tie. If you allocate them to Bush, he gets 51%. Right now he has a 2 point lead among likely voters. The margin's close enough to allow the Democrats all sorts of cheating opportunities. If that stands, we're probably looking at a President Kerry in 2005.
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