Slight Bush Margin in Final Days of Campaign

Pew Institute ^ | 10/31/04 | Pew Institute

[nj26]

President George W. Bush holds a slight edge over Senator John Kerry in the final days of Campaign 2004. The Pew Research Center's final pre-election poll of 1,925 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27-30, finds Bush with a three-point edge (48% to 45% for Kerry); Ralph Nader draws 1%, and 6% are undecided.

The poll finds indications that turnout will be significantly higher than in the two previous presidential elections, especially among younger people. Yet Bush gets the boost Republican candidates typically receive when the sample is narrowed from the base of 2,408 registered voters to those most likely to vote. (Among all registered voters, Kerry and Bush are in a virtual tie: 46% Kerry, 45% Bush).

[Txsleuth]

You talk about being doomed. Fox News had a dang NEWS ALERT to announce that Washington won and that maybe this means we won't have to wait until Tuesday - Kerry wins!!

I kid you not they actually put that information, during a time of terrorist threats, up as a NEWS ALERT -- these media people do not have a clue.

They also just reported that Florida officials say that early voting is up 2.5 times from 2000. I don't think that is a good sign necessarily.

[West Coast Conservative]

This poll is actually good news. Last time it was tied, plus:

Pew's final survey suggests that the remaining undecided vote may break only slightly in Kerry's favor. When both turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in Pew's final estimate, Bush holds a slight 51%-48% margin.

As in previous polls, Bush's supporters are much more enthusiastic than those backing Kerry. In fact, Bush registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Fully 39% of likely voters support Bush strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. Roughly three-in-ten likely voters say they support Kerry strongly (32%), and 13% back him moderately, a pattern more typical of recent presidential candidates.

[tagawgrag]

Ah, my friend, remember the Red Sox curse!!!!! I think this is the years curses are broken!!!! :-)

[prairiebreeze]

Who to believe, Andy Card, or The Punk. Decisions, decisions.

Prairie

[bjc]

Internals look odd. Only those under 24 -- too young to know, and those over 75 are clearly for Kerry. Very strange. Moreover 10 of their sample was over 75!!
I do not get how these guys stay in business.

[hansel]

The Red Sox also won the World Series so the normal indicators may be off this year....

[OneTimeLurker]

Here's their likely voter sample:

37% Republicans
34% Democrats
24% Independents

[DAC22]

"not that the Green Bay Packers were the team that defeated the Redskins"


Ahhh yes it was the Packers whom beat Washington today.
(maybe I missed some twist in comment?)

[nj26]

Blast from the past:

In 2000, Pew's final poll showed a 3 point margin for GWB among LV, and a 3 point margin among RV for Gore. Definitely CYA if you ask me. Good that margin is closer among RV this time.

Released: November 5, 2000

George W. Bush continues to hold a slim edge over Al Gore in the final days of Campaign 2000. A Pew Research Center poll of 1,307 likely voters conducted November 1-4 finds 46% favoring Bush, 43% Gore, with 3% for Ralph Nader and 1% for Pat Buchanan. These results are almost identical to those of a Center survey conducted October 25-29, which gave the Texas governor his first lead in Pew's polls since the summer.

[IndianPrincessOK]

here's the heads up from Joe Scarborough on the polls coming out tonight: LOOKING GOOD!!!!

By the way, the latest Newsweek and Battleground polls released today have Bush leading Kerry by 5 points. Expect the USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll to produce a similar result sometime Sunday night while CBS/NY Times will continue limiting their polling audience to family members of Dan Rather, Mary Mapes, and Paul Krugman.

What do you think? Email me at JScarborough@msnbc.com

[comebacknewt]

Coming from Pew, this is another GREAT poll for W.

You know if there was any way Albright and Co. could have showed F'n ahead, they would have.

[kesg]

Is this before or after weighting?

[DAC22]

"Coming from Pew, this is another GREAT poll for W."


I would have liked it more if the oversampling had been on the RATS side.

[IndependantVoter]

That Poll of PEW came out before the drunk driving charges surfaced and it showed a still undecided electorate with the low/mid 40's number.....this is the kicker to that and the fact that others have seen undecideds breaking for Bush....also you still don't have the Osama effect...Pew states....
"As in previous polls, Bush's supporters are much more enthusiastic than those backing Kerry. In fact, Bush registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Fully 39% of likely voters support Bush strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. Roughly three-in-ten likely voters say they support Kerry strongly (32%), and 13% back him moderately, a pattern more typical of recent presidential candidates.

[Jhensy]

I don't know what to think.

On the one hand, these polls look just like last time-- Bush up by 3% or so, but then the actual vote ended up exactly tied.

BUT, there was the last minute DUI story which probably did cost Bush 1%-3% undecided.

BUT, I don't see Kerry getting more than 46-47% in any of these national polls... no outliers show him winning 51%-49%, as some should, if it were truly tied.

BUT, maybe the cellphone/youth factor is causing the Dem vote to be undercounted.

BUT Kerry is a traitorous, communist Frankenstein from Massachusetts with a repellant weirdo of a wife, and he can't POSSIBLY be elected by the masses. RIGHT?!!!??

BUT... all this changes hourly in my mind. 48 hours to go.

[KellyAdmirer]

Among those who say they have already cast a ballot, Kerry received 48% and Bush 47%. Those who say they still plan to vote early divide 49% for Bush and 46% for Kerry.

Fascinating. I don't know what it really means, but fascinating.

[backhoe]

 Misouri Democrat HQ worker says Mo and Nation is going to Bush (This was is a vanity but is so hot) 

[nj26]

It is hard to read into those stats. Certain states allow early voting (FL, TX, OR), and others don't. I am not sure if early voting predominates in "red" or "blue" states. Wouldn't worry too much about it.

[Pikamax]

link to that?