And the next president will be ... ? PACKERS-REDSKINS GAME ON SUNDAY WILL TELL YOU

Kentucky.com ^ | Fri, Oct. 29, 2004 | Joseph White

[Andy from Beaverton]

Posted on Fri, Oct. 29, 2004

 

And the next president will be ... ?

PACKERS-REDSKINS GAME ON SUNDAY WILL TELL YOU

By Joseph White

ASSOCIATED PRESS

ASHBURN, Va. - This election season, Washington Redskins cornerback Fred Smoot has a predicament faced by many NFL players: a Democrat's background and a Republican's income.

"They turn Republican. I see it all the time," Smoot said. "It all goes back to changing your economic value."

Smoot, a black from modest means in Mississippi, has decided to choose his roots over his pocketbook. He is supporting John Kerry for president.

"When you go into a higher tax bracket, all of a sudden you don't want to vote for this candidate because he's going to raise taxes," Smoot said. "I thought about it. I'm not going to solely vote for this candidate just because he's going to save me a couple of dollars and it not turn out to be the best thing for me or my country."

That, however, presents Smoot with another dilemma: For Kerry to win, the Redskins have to lose on Sunday -- at least according to a bizarre statistical correlation that's been accurate for seven decades.

"We've got to win this game no doubt, but I'm hoping John Kerry can kind of reverse the curse," Smoot said. "I'm wishing him luck, man. This is the millennium for all trends to be broken."

Since the Redskins became the Redskins in 1933, the result of the team's final home game before the presidential election has correctly predicted the White House winner. If the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins. If they lose, the incumbent party is ousted.

"It's kind of amazing," Coach Joe Gibbs said. "You wouldn't think something like that would line up that many times."

Gibbs said the statistic doesn't really mean anything, but he can at least pretend that it does -- because he's solidly in the Bush camp.

"Hopefully we'll have a lot of people pulling for us," said Gibbs, who voted when he traveled to his North Carolina home over the bye weekend.

Kerry's vice presidential candidate, John Edwards, has been quoted as saying he's rooting for the Packers. While no doubt thankful for the endorsement, Green Bay Coach Mike Sherman is concerned about more rudimentary matters, such as the health of quarterback Brett Favre.

"It's going to take a lot more than Packers fans to determine the outcome of an election," Sherman said.

Redskins win, incumbent wins -- a history

Since 1933, when the Boston Braves were renamed the Redskins, the result of the team's final home game before the presidential election has always correctly predicted the White House winner. If the Redskins win, the incumbent party wins. If they lose, the incumbent party is ousted. An election-by-election recap:

1936: Redskins (in final year in Boston) defeated Chicago Cardinals 13-10 on Nov. 1. Franklin Roosevelt won re-election over Alf Landon on Nov. 3.

1940: Redskins defeated Pittsburgh Pirates 37-10 on Nov. 3. Roosevelt won re-election over Wendell Willkie on Nov. 5.

1944: Redskins defeated Cleveland Rams 14-10 on Nov. 5. Roosevelt won re-election over Thomas Dewey on Nov. 7.

1948: Redskins defeated Boston Yanks 59-21 on Oct. 31. Incumbent Harry Truman (who assumed office after Roosevelt's death) defeated Dewey on Nov. 2.

1952: Redskins lost to Pittsburgh Steelers 24-23 on Nov. 2. Dwight Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson on Nov. 4, returning the Republicans to the White House for the first time in 20 years.

1956: Redskins defeated Cleveland Browns 20-9 on Oct. 21. Eisenhower won re-election over Stevenson on Nov. 6.

1960: Redskins lost to Cleveland Browns 31-10 on Oct. 30. John Kennedy defeated vice president Richard Nixon on Nov. 8.

1964: Redskins defeated Chicago Bears 27-20 on Oct. 25. Lyndon Johnson (who assumed office after Kennedy's death) defeated Barry Goldwater on Nov. 3.

1968: Redskins lost to New York Giants 13-10 on Oct. 27. Nixon defeated Hubert Humphrey on Nov. 5.

1972: Redskins defeated Dallas Cowboys 24-20 on Oct. 22. Nixon won re-election over George McGovern on Nov. 7.

1976: Redskins lost to Dallas Cowboys 20-7 on Oct. 31. Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford (who assumed office after Nixon's resignation) on Nov. 2.

1980: Redskins lost to Minnesota Vikings 39-14 on Nov. 2. Ronald Reagan unseated Carter on Nov. 4.

1984: Redskins defeated Atlanta Falcons 27-14 on Nov. 5. Reagan won re-election over Walter Mondale on Nov. 6.

1988: Redskins defeated New Orleans Saints 27-24 on Nov. 6. Vice president George Bush defeated Michael Dukakis on Nov. 8.

1992: Redskins lost to New York Giants 24-7 on Nov. 1. Bill Clinton unseated Bush on Nov. 3.

1996: Redskins defeated Indianapolis Colts 31-16 on Oct. 27. Clinton won re-election over Bob Dole on Nov. 5.

2000: Redskins lost to Tennessee Titans 27-21 on Oct. 30. George W. Bush defeated Al Gore on Nov. 7.

2004: Redskins host Green Bay Packers on Sunday. Bush faces John Kerry on Tuesday.

---

Sunday

Green Bay at Washington

When: 1 p.m.

Records: Packers 3-4; Redskins 2-4

[Gandalf_The_Gray]

Zero is a random number, so is one. Try it often enough and you will get a string of either thats arbitrarily long. When you get to infinity they sum up to 0.5!

Regards,
GtG

PS another way to look at it is the "odds" are 100% since it has in fact happened.

[Spirited]

This Redskins fan thanks you. Please know that I want the Ravens to win in every game except when the 'Skins play them.
Don't see how I can abandon the Orioles, either! God, help us all!

[knuthom]

Why bother to have the election? Just wait until after the game and award the Presidency to the appropriate party.

More seriously, it is ridiculous to believe that a football game can either indicate or control the outcome of an election.

[sporkgoddess]

Packers are winning 17-7

[bensdaddy]

Allot of traditions have been broken this year. The only cursed team is not the Cubs for example.

[SteveAustin]

For those of your worried about this statistic (since the Packers are up by 10 already) don't fear.

The Lakers always are in the finals in the year when the GOP wins....and LA was in the finals this year.

Also, the Scholastic Reader poll of kids always picks the winner...this year Bush won.

Also, no Dem has ever won the White House without winning Missouri. This year, GW is doing well in Mighty MO. Also, remember, Kerry is still running around in his Red Sox cap, which can't play well with Cardinals fans in St. Louis.

[Snake65]

Also, the Scholastic Reader poll of kids always picks the winner...this year Bush won.

To me this one makes sense, since there could be correlation of kids reflecting the way their parents are voting.

[Novel]

What would John Kerry say?

I actually predicted the Packers would score 17 before I predicted they wouldn't.

What would George Bush Say?

I misunderestimated the Packers.

[faithincowboys]

tHIS IS SO ANNOYING THAT THIS IS BEING HYPED. i DON'T REMEMBER THIS BEING A BIG DEAL ANY OTHER ELECTION YEAR. THEY KNOW THE SKINS SUCK. DIDN'T THE SKINS LOSE IN '72 WHEN NIXON WON IN A LANDSLIDE.

[Defiant]

Someone did the research on this one, what have you got?

Oh my God, you think the Redskins game actually determines who will win? Why don't you read some entrails or tea leaves while you are at it. What idiocy.

The guy's research consisted in reviewing the results of football games played since 1940, and found one set of games that he could shoehorn into being a predictor of the victor. So, the Redskins gave Eisenhower the nod, helped Kennedy find those Chicago votes, and assured Nixon and Reagan their landslide victories. Do you hear yourself?

I guarantee you I could find 1000 similar predictors that have been 100 percent accurate since 1800, and they would be just as relevant. If you pay me to do it, I will find you one or two by tomorrow. My regular hourly rate is $250. Let me know if you are interested.

[Feiny]

It was a big deal in 2000....but then again...I am a life long Redskin fan. (don't laugh, it is embarrassing enough)

[faithincowboys]

I guess I forgot that...

[Defiant]

But the Redskins lost to the Bills this year on Nov. 3rd, Two days before the election.

Bwaaahaaahaaa. Guess the guys' research wasn't so good after all. He forgot that sometimes there's a November game before the election? What a maroon. So much for that theory.

[Castro]

Calm down...some of us have a sense of humor and find enjoyment in taking life lightly.

[Defiant]

BTW, the odds are 1 in 131,072 so far, and 1 in 262,144 if it holds.

That could be. But what you fail to recognize is that there are trillions of human interactions and activities every day. Take the ones that occur each election year, and then come up with a pattern that relates to a human endeavor such as an election, and you will find millions that correspond with the election pattern. There have only been 15 elections since 1940, that's a tiny number to find a pattern for. We could probably find a predictor for something that has occurred 1000 times since 1940, and it would still be random.

[Defiant]

This all comes back to a sad misunderstanding of mathematics, the laws of large numbers, and statistics.

[Luke21]

Smoot is flat on his belly with an injury right now. Typical AP drivel.

[BlindGuardian]

GreenBay: 20

RedSkins: 7

4th Qtr, 11:10 left to go.

This game is going to the Packers.

[Defiant]

I'm plenty calm. People spending time worrying about whether the Redskins win or lose because of a possible effect on the election, that is an annoyance, like terrorism is to Kerry. I try to explain simple errors in thinking wherever they are encountered. Hope you understand now, and are not overly nervous about the Redskins (unless you are a Skins fan, in which case, by all means root for them).

[faithincowboys]

Please tell me we aren't reliving 1976...

"On 31 October 1976 the Washington Redskins were spooked by the Dallas Cowboys in a Halloween Day home game, losing 20-7 and predicting a loss for the incumbent Republicans. Two days later, on 2 November 1976, Democratic Governor Jimmy Carter of Georgia unseated President Gerald Ford (who had been appointed Vice-President after the resignation of Spiro Agnew in 1973 and became chief executive in 1974 after President Richard Nixon also resigned)."