Posted on 10/31/2004 5:30:58 AM PST by BlackRazor
8 votes apart
Sunday, October 31, 2004
Darrel Rowland
THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH
After nearly 80 candidate visits to Ohio, untold millions spent in ads, 500 more Americans killed in Iraq and 13,300 additional jobs lost in the state, the presidential race is back to where it was seven months ago.
Dead even.
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are tied at just less than 50 percent in a new Dispatch Poll.
How close is this matchup? Kerry leads by a mere eight votes out of 2,880 ballots returned in the mail survey — the tightest margin ever in a final Dispatch Poll.
A similar survey in late March shortly after Kerry clinched the Democratic nomination put Bush ahead by 34 responses.
However, in the past four weeks Kerry has surged from a 7 percentage-point deficit into a tie with Bush. And several signs indicate the Massachusetts senator has gained the momentum in Ohio.
Kerry is ahead by 14 points among independent voters. He has a narrow lead in northwestern Ohio, the state’s most reliable bellwether media market. And he has brought black voters home, gaining 91 percent support among black respondents.
Meanwhile, the poll contains troubling signs for Bush. Only 44 percent say things in the nation are headed in the right direction. Fewer than half approve of his handling of Iraq and the economy. And his overall approval rating is 49 percent, a measure that many political experts say represents a ceiling on his support Tuesday.
But this election is so close in Ohio that the winner will be determined by which side gets its voters to the polls Tuesday, and by how the public perceives such late-breaking developments as the newly released video of Osama bin Laden. Perhaps the biggest question — aside from the effect of possible Election Day challenges at polling places — is how many of Ohio’s 1 million newly registered voters will cast ballots.
These newbies now represent one in eight Ohio voters, and they support Kerry by nearly a 2-1 margin in the poll.
One difference between the latest poll and the one published four weeks ago is the inclusion of more newly registered voters in the sample, whose names were in the latest available data from the secretary of state’s office. About 88 percent of the new voters — including those from Ohio’s largest counties — were among the potential poll participants.
The survey also shows State Issue 1 — the proposed state constitutional amendment to define marriage and its legal benefits as solely between a man and a woman — passing by a wide margin. However a late advertising campaign by issue opponents had not begun during part of the polling period, Oct. 20 through Friday.
With a 24-point lead, U.S. Sen. George V. Voinovich appears headed to an easy win over Democratic state Sen. Eric D. Fingerhut.
And in perhaps the poll’s biggest surprise, Ohio Chief Justice Thomas J. Moyer is struggling to win re-election. He has a 2-point lead — exactly the poll’s margin of error — over Democrat C. Ellen Connally, a former Municipal Court judge in Cleveland.
The other two Republicans seeking seats on the high court — incumbent Terrence O’Donnell and Toledo Appeals Court Judge Judith Ann Lanzinger — both hold comfortable leads.
Though the economy and other traditional issues are on the minds of respondents, Iraq is an overarching topic for many.
"At first, I supported Bush wholeheartedly," said Marge Seyer, 54, a union leader from Warren. "But then after they discovered no weapons of mass destruction I thought, ‘Oh, boy, there’s a lot of money going out of the country (to fight the war).’ How are we going to get out of there? I don’t see any end of it."
Almost the opposite was expressed by Robert Snowberger, 75, a retired lawyer from Westlake, near Cleveland.
He didn’t approve of attacking Iraq but now says "in the middle of a war is the wrong time to change leadership."
Snowberger also called Bush a "positive person. I don’t always agree with him, but he’s more positive than Kerry. Kerry is wishy-washy and not at all reliable."
Phil Sommers, 69, a retiree from Stow, near Akron, said he’s upset with the accounts of missing explosives in Iraq. He was a drill instructor for the Army Honor Guard in 1955, serving three years in Hawaii.
"All those ammo dumps were there when we went in," Sommers said. "Why didn’t we do something then to secure them? Somebody should have stepped up and said, ‘We’re not going to let this get away.’ "
Unlike some veterans, he doesn’t have a problem with Kerry’s anti-war statements after he returned from Vietnam.
"I don’t think Kerry is as twofaced as they make him out. It takes guts to sit down and tell them what they don’t want to hear."
But poll participant Terri Surber said, "I think Kerry’s service is questionable at best. What he did when he got out of Vietnam amounted to treason."
The 48-year-old from Grove City, manager for a wholesale refrigeration and heating company, will vote for Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney.
"I think they’re what our country needs. His opponent is not the leader America needs in economics and these times of our country."
Zoran Vranesevic’s reason for backing Kerry is personal.
An unemployed mortgage broker from the Cleveland suburb of Brook Park, he has a 20-year-old brother who is a quadriplegic from a three-story fall two years ago. Vranesevic, 36, said Kerry’s support of embryonic stem-cell research would give his brother hope that he will walk again.
Keith Mussey, 43, of Brooklyn, said he voted for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 but now backs Bush. The teacher and former Army reservist said Kerry and Democrats are "really giving the military a raw deal" by voting against a number of defensespending initiatives.
"It just seems like Bush is more for the military, and I like that," Mussey said. "The world has changed and things are a lot different. I like the things (Bush) has been promoting over the past four years, and I don’t like the things John Kerry has been doing for the past 30 years."
State Issue 1 draws strong sentiments from both sides.
William Munro III, 18, a freshman from Aurora majoring in marketing and communication at Ohio University, supports the measure.
"The government shouldn’t be involved in people’s lives, but when you have judicial activists, the people have to get involved," he said. "I am for the protection of the sanctity of marriage."
Paulette Brumfield, 54, a Springfield housewife, said being gay is not a choice.
"You are born that way," she said. "If people want to make a moral commitment to one another, then who cares? . . . There’s enough hate in this world. If two people are in love, who am I to object?"
Cleveland Plains Dealer has Bush up 3.
Ohio, or the overall election? In any case, my answer is the same to both questions. My analytical evaluation of the data produces a mathematical result that John Kerry will win. However, my gut instinct is that, despite this, Bush will pull it out. How's that for covering all bases?
Unfortunately, quite a few folks I used to work with do blame Bush. But I'm heartened by hearing from another friend of union folks despise Kerry and are voting Bush.
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