Posted on 10/31/2004 5:30:58 AM PST by BlackRazor
If Ohio is really close then Kerry will probably get it. Polls don't take into account...Massive voter fraud. And The dems are going full force with that in Ohio from what I have been reading. So lets hope this poll is B.S.
No, I'm on the president's "team," and there is very little talk of the amendment, one way or another. The whole "team" is totally focused on the math: the GOP has more voters than the Dems. All we have to do is get them out, regardless of what the Dispatch has to say. And everything I'm hearing is that the GOP turnout is going to be rock solid. See further posts here about what I'm hearing.
It's closer than I'd like...
Maybe the Dipsatch got a bad sample.
Golly gee. I wonder who this author could ever be rooting for?
Come on, Ohioans, Get our the Republican Vote!
2) I've heard rumblings through the grapevine (nothing official) that MD may well be closer than folks expect. [fingers crossed]
Fortunately you're not in charge.
"...500 more Americans killed in Iraq and 13,300 additional jobs lost in the state, the presidential race is back to where it was seven months ago."
You've gotta love this little bit of "journalistic objectivity." With that opening, the author of the piece seems to be lamenting "How is it that Kerry doesn't have a big lead?" instead of just reporting the results of the poll. I wonder if this appeared on the opinion page or as a news story.
LOL. Why bother?
They could save a lot of time and trouble if they just put the darned thing on the Internet.
Dear BlackRazor,
I doubt their "historically the most accurate" polls have been conducted via mail.
I have real questions about that methodology.
I'd want to know how many were mailed out, and how they handled the demographic stuff. Often, mail surveys have rates of response that make the data suspect.
sitetest
The missing piece, which is the last sentence in the article, is that the response rate was ONLY 25%! They made no attempt to reconcile the non-respondents- are they the same as the respondents. Basically all this very poorly done survey tells us is that 25% are the most motivated voters, and among them it's 50/50.
The other 75% are either: split, favor Bush, or favor Kerry. No other conclusions can be made.
Basically my 9 year old daughter could have saved them the time, effort, and money by telling them the same thing.
To my knowledge, the Columbus Dispatch has always conducted their polls via mail.
Which, if it happens, puts tremendous pressure on Bush to run the table on the other close states. Exactly what Gore had to do in 2000 and very nearly did, but came up short. The tables could be turned on Bush this time around if we lose OH and come up short in a state with a small electoral vote but just enough to put Kerry over the top.
If Bush loses Ohio (and, as a result, the election) it will be because of what I have been saying all along, an inability to effectively counter the issue Kerry has been absolutely hammering and positively slaughtering Bush with: job losses and outsourcing. And the blame can be traced directly to brainless, clueless, tin-eared, heartless, lousy stupid chumps like John Snow and Gregory Mankiw and Elaine Chao, who have the unmitigated stupidity to go out and run their stinking sewers about how great outsourcing and offshoring is and of how people really, really, really should be happy that they're unemployed (or fear being so).
I hope I am proved wrong come election evening. But the closeness of these numbers, plus the strength Kerry has been showing in places that have been, up to this point, solid conservative Republican, causes me no end of worry.
So anyway, this poll does tell us a lot of things.
-More women than men filled out the survey. That sounds about right.
-Very few minorities filled out the survey, they very much underperformed the general population. Possible ambivalence in the minority vote?
-Did you know that 12% of the state population makes more than $90k per year? Neither did I. Either that or the top income earners self-selected to a very high degree, which is exactly what a social scientist would expect I bet.
- Issue 1 (gay marriage) wins the white vote by 62% but the Black vote by 70% wow! This one I believe but the sample of black voters is way too small (194) to be sure of anything on the minority vote.
-Ok now this is getting silly, If this is a generic sample of the Ohio population then 15% of Ohioans have a post-graduate degree. which is double what the census says.
I think I've made the point that this poll is useless for predicting who Ohio will vote for but makes for some great entertainment for amateur demographers.
exactly, see my other post, bet you can spot some other inconsistencies. come on it's fun!
i guess it's ok to be honest about your principles when it comes to foreign policy but don't dare speak the truth about the economy?
all protectionists can vote for kerry til we end up living in hobbit holes like swedes with an 80% tax rate and muslim population or they can come back to bush like pat buchanan with hat in hand
the PA steelworkers defecting from bush after two years of protection can go stuff themselves along with the rest of you RINOs
So this individual has bought into the lie that has been debunked, but he apparently doesn't pay much attention or doesn't care -- just as long as he has something to bash Bush with.
Do you think Bush will win?
Or a couple dozen friends. :)
I dont believe Amish return mail polling... ;)
Remember the Amish...
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