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8 Votes Apart (Columbus Dispatch Ohio Poll: Bush 50, Kerry 50)
Columbus Dispatch ^ | 10/31/04 | Darrel Rowland

Posted on 10/31/2004 5:30:58 AM PST by BlackRazor

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To: BlackRazor

If Ohio is really close then Kerry will probably get it. Polls don't take into account...Massive voter fraud. And The dems are going full force with that in Ohio from what I have been reading. So lets hope this poll is B.S.


21 posted on 10/31/2004 7:02:24 AM PST by Revel
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To: TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig

No, I'm on the president's "team," and there is very little talk of the amendment, one way or another. The whole "team" is totally focused on the math: the GOP has more voters than the Dems. All we have to do is get them out, regardless of what the Dispatch has to say. And everything I'm hearing is that the GOP turnout is going to be rock solid. See further posts here about what I'm hearing.


22 posted on 10/31/2004 7:03:33 AM PST by LS
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To: LS; Common Tator

It's closer than I'd like...

Maybe the Dipsatch got a bad sample.


23 posted on 10/31/2004 7:28:35 AM PST by hchutch (I only eat dolphin-safe veal.)
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To: BlackRazor
After nearly 80 candidate visits to Ohio, untold millions spent in ads, 500 more Americans killed in Iraq and 13,300 additional jobs lost in the state

Golly gee. I wonder who this author could ever be rooting for?

24 posted on 10/31/2004 7:34:10 AM PST by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
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To: BlackRazor

Come on, Ohioans, Get our the Republican Vote!


25 posted on 10/31/2004 7:35:43 AM PST by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: Tom602
1) I applaud you for giving of your time and energy to re-elect a fine leader.After nearly 80 candidate visits to Ohio, untold millions spent in ads, 500 more Americans killed in Iraq and 13,300 additional jobs lost in the state

2) I've heard rumblings through the grapevine (nothing official) that MD may well be closer than folks expect. [fingers crossed]

26 posted on 10/31/2004 7:37:32 AM PST by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
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To: denco
Never will understand what Rove was thinking.

Fortunately you're not in charge.

27 posted on 10/31/2004 7:38:14 AM PST by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
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To: BlackRazor

"...500 more Americans killed in Iraq and 13,300 additional jobs lost in the state, the presidential race is back to where it was seven months ago."

You've gotta love this little bit of "journalistic objectivity." With that opening, the author of the piece seems to be lamenting "How is it that Kerry doesn't have a big lead?" instead of just reporting the results of the poll. I wonder if this appeared on the opinion page or as a news story.


28 posted on 10/31/2004 7:39:02 AM PST by Sam The Eagle
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To: sitetest
A mail survey??

LOL. Why bother?

They could save a lot of time and trouble if they just put the darned thing on the Internet.

29 posted on 10/31/2004 7:40:48 AM PST by jackbill
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To: BlackRazor

Dear BlackRazor,

I doubt their "historically the most accurate" polls have been conducted via mail.

I have real questions about that methodology.

I'd want to know how many were mailed out, and how they handled the demographic stuff. Often, mail surveys have rates of response that make the data suspect.


sitetest


30 posted on 10/31/2004 7:53:22 AM PST by sitetest (Why does everyone get so uptight about toasted heretics??)
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To: bcatwilly

The missing piece, which is the last sentence in the article, is that the response rate was ONLY 25%! They made no attempt to reconcile the non-respondents- are they the same as the respondents. Basically all this very poorly done survey tells us is that 25% are the most motivated voters, and among them it's 50/50.
The other 75% are either: split, favor Bush, or favor Kerry. No other conclusions can be made.
Basically my 9 year old daughter could have saved them the time, effort, and money by telling them the same thing.


31 posted on 10/31/2004 8:48:32 AM PST by Dr. Free Market (Character is doing the right thing when no one's looking.)
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To: sitetest
I doubt their "historically the most accurate" polls have been conducted via mail.

To my knowledge, the Columbus Dispatch has always conducted their polls via mail.

32 posted on 10/31/2004 9:08:09 AM PST by BlackRazor
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To: BlackRazor
From what I've seen in my neighborhood (a traditionally Republican area), this poll is dead-on. The state is very closely split. My guess is that Kerry takes it by about a thousand plurality, which would be a real heartbreaker given that he won it narrowly but decisively in 2000.

Which, if it happens, puts tremendous pressure on Bush to run the table on the other close states. Exactly what Gore had to do in 2000 and very nearly did, but came up short. The tables could be turned on Bush this time around if we lose OH and come up short in a state with a small electoral vote but just enough to put Kerry over the top.

If Bush loses Ohio (and, as a result, the election) it will be because of what I have been saying all along, an inability to effectively counter the issue Kerry has been absolutely hammering and positively slaughtering Bush with: job losses and outsourcing. And the blame can be traced directly to brainless, clueless, tin-eared, heartless, lousy stupid chumps like John Snow and Gregory Mankiw and Elaine Chao, who have the unmitigated stupidity to go out and run their stinking sewers about how great outsourcing and offshoring is and of how people really, really, really should be happy that they're unemployed (or fear being so).

I hope I am proved wrong come election evening. But the closeness of these numbers, plus the strength Kerry has been showing in places that have been, up to this point, solid conservative Republican, causes me no end of worry.

33 posted on 10/31/2004 12:28:36 PM PST by chimera
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To: BlackRazor; bcatwilly; LS
Guys what this poll really tells us is, of the population likely to fill out a survey and mail it back, there are an equal number of Bush and Kerry supporters. This is much different than a telephone survey where there is much less action required on the part of the respondent (just that they be home and answer the phone which is hard enough).

So anyway, this poll does tell us a lot of things.

-More women than men filled out the survey. That sounds about right.

-Very few minorities filled out the survey, they very much underperformed the general population. Possible ambivalence in the minority vote?

-Did you know that 12% of the state population makes more than $90k per year? Neither did I. Either that or the top income earners self-selected to a very high degree, which is exactly what a social scientist would expect I bet.

- Issue 1 (gay marriage) wins the white vote by 62% but the Black vote by 70% wow! This one I believe but the sample of black voters is way too small (194) to be sure of anything on the minority vote.

-Ok now this is getting silly, If this is a generic sample of the Ohio population then 15% of Ohioans have a post-graduate degree. which is double what the census says.

I think I've made the point that this poll is useless for predicting who Ohio will vote for but makes for some great entertainment for amateur demographers.

34 posted on 10/31/2004 12:30:26 PM PST by delapaz (http://www.nixguy.com)
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To: Dr. Free Market

exactly, see my other post, bet you can spot some other inconsistencies. come on it's fun!


35 posted on 10/31/2004 12:33:33 PM PST by delapaz (http://www.nixguy.com)
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To: chimera

i guess it's ok to be honest about your principles when it comes to foreign policy but don't dare speak the truth about the economy?

all protectionists can vote for kerry til we end up living in hobbit holes like swedes with an 80% tax rate and muslim population or they can come back to bush like pat buchanan with hat in hand

the PA steelworkers defecting from bush after two years of protection can go stuff themselves along with the rest of you RINOs


36 posted on 10/31/2004 8:50:42 PM PST by dwills
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To: BlackRazor
Phil Sommers, 69, a retiree from Stow, near Akron, said he’s upset with the accounts of missing explosives in Iraq. He was a drill instructor for the Army Honor Guard in 1955, serving three years in Hawaii. "All those ammo dumps were there when we went in," Sommers said. "Why didn’t we do something then to secure them? Somebody should have stepped up and said, ‘We’re not going to let this get away.’ "

So this individual has bought into the lie that has been debunked, but he apparently doesn't pay much attention or doesn't care -- just as long as he has something to bash Bush with.

37 posted on 10/31/2004 8:55:12 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
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To: BlackRazor

Do you think Bush will win?


38 posted on 10/31/2004 8:59:55 PM PST by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)
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To: Dane

Or a couple dozen friends. :)


39 posted on 10/31/2004 9:03:32 PM PST by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)
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To: Revel
If Ohio is really close then Kerry will probably get it. Polls don't take into account...Massive voter fraud. And The dems are going full force with that in Ohio from what I have been reading. So lets hope this poll is B.S.

I dont believe Amish return mail polling... ;)

Remember the Amish...

40 posted on 10/31/2004 9:05:03 PM PST by smith288 (I have posted over 10,000 times. The more I post, the more intelligent you become!)
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