Posted on 10/30/2004 6:18:41 PM PDT by ambrose
New Mason-Dixon polls just released: FL+4; OH:+2; WV:+8; MN:+1; NM:+5; IA:5; AR:+8; NV:+6
(Excerpt) Read more at msnbc.msn.com ...
I hope you contacted the media, county elections office and Sec. of State to complaint about the flyer.
You got Dave Robertson in Southern Genesee covering an area from around Grand Blanc down to the Livingston Border. That was a big win in 02 for us and I hope he wins again.
Dale Kildee is actually having to work for a change. Myrah Kirkwood is probably the toughest candidate he's faced since 94 when he almost lost. I know many in the 2nd Amendment crowd are helping her. I hope the party is helping her as well.
Jay Cost's poll calculation and EV analysis today is VERY interesting.
Nationwide
Bush: 49.57%
Kerry: 46.28%
MOE: +/- 0.9%
(Respondents: 8,954; Polls Used: ABC News, Fox News, LA Times, Gallup, Newsweek, Battleground)
Based on these results, we can be 99.9997% confident that Bush presently has a lead.
Present Probability that Bush will win the Electoral College: 96.36% (This is the probability that Bush wins FL and IA and WI or OH. Thus, we can be 96.36% confident that Bush would receive a minimum of either 271 EVs or 281 EVs).
Evaluation: Bush looks to be in very strong shape in IA and FL. At this point, his numbers are inching closer and closer to 50%. His numbers in Ohio are coming back to their levels from mid-October. I believe this is due mostly to bad polls replacing good polls and then being replaced in turn by good polls. He still likely retains a lead in WI, but the Mason-Dixon numbers are somewhat unsettling (though they are mitigated by the MN numbers, which in this post are skewed by an outlying survey from St. Cloud State).
Bush also seems to be inching upward in PA, due to a string of polls calling the race a tie (Quinippiac even has him up), which might result in a big pro-Bush surprise on Election Night. Gallup should release another PA poll sometime before 11-02. That should be the one to look for.
Right now the EV math is looking awfully tough for Kerry. He is definitely behind in FL, IA and, though I do not cover it here, NM. This gives Bush a minimum of 266 EVs. Plus, Bush is likely leading in OH and WI -- and I think Kerry will be unable to hold MN when all is said and done. The word on the ground is that BC04's organization in MN is a sight to behold. The big question on my mind right now is not whether Bush gets to 269, but whether he breaks 300 (which he would do if he carries FL, IA, NM, WI, OH and MN -- that would be 306).
http://jaycost.blogspot.com/
Just for the record.........we sent money to John Thune from right here in battleground Ohio. :o)
Has Gallup come out with their recent poll numbers today?
The Fox poll that came out today claimed that about half of those polled had seen the tape. I believe that the Zogby and Rasmussen included some people who had seen the tape also. I find that result surprising and disappointing in many ways.
I just refreshed the page, and all the polling details disappeared. Can anyone confirm this?
That's a sacrifice I greatly respect. Of course you also got some our leading organizers from our most populous county just recently!!
I've been a teamster for 13 years, I vote straight republican ticket every election. We have 16 drivers at our barn, out of that number, not one supports skerry. But
truth be told I have only identified 2 other drivers that are even going to vote, the others are just interested enough to NOT like sKerry.
A footnote, I'm a thorn in my locals side, the business agent complained to me that they have 6500 members in the local and only 700 are registered to vote. The days of big labor GOTV are over for the rats.
Yeah he's down in WI. Of course I can't turn on the T.V. withou seeing multiple Kerry ads and few Bush ads. I wish Bush and co had spent more here but we will see in the end. I still think WI is going Red this year.
But, rain won't affect the mail-in ballot. I was doing my duty today at the Republican call center and many have already mailed ballots.
What is wrong with Pennsylvania? Bush's Favorable is greater than Kerry's by 4. Bush's Unfavorable is equal to Kerry's. Kerry's Unfavorable is greater than his Favorable by 1. Yet, Kerry leads Bush by 2 pts. That's ludicrous.
"It is good vs. evil. we are polarized because we are choosing sides. the internet has brought so much information to us that we are no longer the "frog in the pot of water that is gradually being heated." some are choosing to stay in the water, while others of us have the smarts to hop out."
Ditto that! Good post!
Maybe that's part of the reason we are so well organized!
Amen
But, they have Kerry by 6%. I know, it is do sad and frustrating. Oregon, Oregon!!
These are great numbers. President Bush has a 50%-45% job approval. That means the undecideds favor the President.
Sure, it is misleading. Even if people said it was in the wrong direction because of the president, doesn't mean they wouldn't vote for him. But most people don't specifically think of the president when they cite their feelings on this statistic. One of the pundits even cited Clinton's wrong track/right track numbers were LOWER than the president's if that means anything. LOL
But, I'm going to say we're going in the right direction if we elect the president by a comfortable margin Nov. 2nd. It will mean the Dem/MSM/World/Terrorists/Hollywood all struck out after an unprecedented campaign of lies, distortion, intimidation, violence and hatred. That would be a hopeful sign to me.
About Ohio, just want to say this. The president's appearance with Arnold hasn't been factored in yet. ;-)
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