Inside Scoop On Ohio

I mentioned at the top of the program that there are many, many people out there that are looking at Ohio and they're not readily agreeing with this notion that it is a swing state, that it in fact is already in the Bush camp, despite what the polls are saying. Now, one of the reasons -- you may wonder, why is it Ohio every year, every presidential campaign, why is Ohio considered a tossup? It's because people can vote there without party affiliation. You can go in there and register, you don't have to register Republican or Democrat, you can just go in and register, you can vote however you wish.

Now, there was a blogger who has studied all this, put some stuff out last night, name is Jay Costs (scroll to Ohio), and others have looked at it, found it credible, and have even added their own things. So let me give you a summary, basically. It is Cost's opinion that Bush is doing much, much better in Ohio than the mainstream media is giving him credit for. The mainstream media are spinning that it's close in Ohio, when it really isn't. And this explains why Bush was able to stay away from Ohio for ten days. He has a chance to take Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota, and still hold Ohio. Rove is not an idiot. They haven't given up on Ohio, but they were able to not go there for ten days.

Now, something that I have heard about Ohio -- I had dinner last night with some very, very, very powerful people, ladies and gentlemen, and one of the people had a message for me from a Republican operative whose name doesn't matter. You wouldn't know it anyway. Wanted me to be sure and be told that the Republican grassroots effort in Ohio is almost down to the individual voter. That the precinct captains in Republican sections of Ohio know exactly who their voters are and who they're going to vote for on a daily basis, they're in touch with them, they're going to know whether they vote or not, that the grassroots effort in Ohio -- and of course the press is not talking about how well organized the Republicans are; the press is talking about how well organized the Democrats are and all these voter registrations. But the story I'm getting out of Ohio is that it is organized to the hilt, down to the grassroots.

And in addition to that, Karl Rove is not an idiot, they haven't given up on Ohio, but some things need to be emphasized here. First, as Jay Costs mentions, Ohio is very much a Republican state. It's not a swing state. The Democratic Party in Ohio is hardly to be found. There's no interesting statewide Democrat candidate running for any position that in any way will help Kerry. Nobody else, like the John Glenn machine doesn't exist, John Glenn's not up for re-election. There's no Democrat senator from Ohio that's up for reelection that will help get out the Democrat vote. The governor is a Republican. The Ohio House delegation is majority Republican. There's no Democrat in a major office that's on the ballot that's going to generate a lot of turnout for him, that will provide coattails anywhere else around the state. Voinovich is going to be reelected with about 63% of the vote.

Second, the social-moral issues like gay marriage and abortion and security concerns have a huge impact in Ohio, especially among women and African-Americans, and this is even reflected in nationwide polls. Kerry cannot break even with Bush with female voters. He needs to get at least 10% more of them than Bush and Bush is going to pick up about 13% of the black vote in Ohio it looks like.

Third, only idiots will think that the roughly 800,000 newly registered voters are all going to go for Kerry. They're going to end up breaking about 50-50. Pay attention to the large number of voters the Republicans have registered. These guys have not been napping for the last five months. There are new voters in rural counties, too, they're not all up in Cuyahoga County, which is Cleveland.

Fourth, Bush will get a much larger percentage of independents than some people think. And fifth, there is no enthusiasm for Kerry even among his supporters. And if you don't believe me, go to SlateMSN.com and they've got a little story there about everybody on their staff was asked to pick their candidate, and 99% choose Kerry, but go read it, none of them like him. It's exactly what I've always said, they're holding their nose, they hate Bush and they gotta get rid of Bush, but Kerry does not excite these people. Kerry doesn't excite anybody, folks. He doesn't really excite anybody.

The best-kept secret of this campaign is that John Kerry is a vessel. Do you know what? I would love to be able to make this bet because I could win this bet and I could earn enough money on this bet, I'd bet every one of you a dollar, and I would win from every one of you who took the opposite stance of mine and I would win the bet and I would get money and I would give it to my favorite charity or yours, because it would be at least 22 million bucks, before taxes. Here's the bet: John Kerry and John Edwards on Monday could resign the ticket. They could say, "You know what, we don't want this." I don't care why they resign, and Kerry would get as many votes off the ticket as he's going to get on the ticket. Even if there's not a liberal on the ballot. Even if there weren't a Democrat on the ballot, that nonentity would get as many votes as Kerry's going to get, whatever the number is. Because they don't care about anything other than they hate Bush. We'll never know because Kerry's not going to have the sense to quit. He's not going to have the good grace to resign. He's not going to suffer what ought to be a disgraceful image because of the way he's conducting himself, particularly this week in this campaign. But you can take him off the ticket. You can take Edwards off the ticket and leave it blank.

You could put a skunk on the ticket and the skunk would get as many votes as Kerry's going to get. Nobody on the Democrat side would get as many votes as Kerry's going to get because he doesn't matter, and that's why you have to look at Republican turnout. Nobody is talking about Republican turnout, the press is all excited about the Democrats and how many new voters they've got and how energized they are. Well, they may be, but they're not energized for their guy. They hate Bush, and hate, there's not enough of it in this country to propel these people to victory, I don't care what you think, I don't care what you've been told, I don't care what you believe in the mainstream media, there's not that much hate. There is some, but comes from a relevantly small group of pointy-headed effete, elite intellectual snobs, and the wannabes around the country who think they're like them.

Pat Caddell just said it. Even Democrats don't hate Bush, the ones that show up in polls. His personal popularity is pretty high, and has to have some Democrat support in there in order for it to be as high as it is, not talking about job approval, we're talking about personal popularity; he's not a hated guy. The media wants you to think he is. Quickly here back to this Ohio business, there's no enthusiasm for Kerry, even among his supporters, nobody likes the guy. His wife seems to justify the worst tendencies of the French revolution. It's impossible for people to envision her in the White House as first lady. Peter Schramm here writing at National Review Online, predicts that Bush will win Ohio by one or two points less than issue 1 will pass with, that's the no gay marriage. No gay marriage is issue 1, prediction is Bush will win Ohio by one or two points less than the number issue 1 will pass with. Issue 1 will pass by about 6%. Bush will take Ohio by 4 or 5% goes this prediction. It is his considered opinion that Democrats in the Kerry campaign are extremely desperate in Ohio, and Peter Schramm says he understands why.

CALLER: Hi, Rush, it's a thrill to be on. I'm a vintage dittohead, and I'm happy to talk to you. I'm in Toledo, Ohio. My daughter is the coordinator of the phone bank for the Republican Party.

CALLER: And we're getting up to 15,000 calls out of there a night, and we're having real positive results, and I really perked up when I heard you say that the press is spinning this. Now, we're Lucas County, which has traditionally gone Democratic and we're getting positive results from our people, and they are very precise in the way they're tracking these voters here. It's a very, very smooth organization.

RUSH: Well, that's what I've heard. I don't want to say too much about it, you know, the old jinx.

RUSH: The old jinx theory, and I don't want to give too much away, but the story I got last night was, and it came up because, as usual, at a dinner featuring a lot of Republicans, always going to be a couple that are whining and moaning about how Bush isn't doing this and Bush isn't do that, and how come the Republicans aren't countering what the Democrats are doing, and somebody said, "Wait a minute, that reminds me, I talked to X so-and-so. Wanted me to tell Rush something tonight," and bam, got the message about what's been going on in Ohio. You have to understand a lot of Republican grassroots work goes on underneath the radar because the media doesn't report it. The media doesn't report it because it generates enthusiasm. If you take a look here at the mainstream press, do you not get the impression -- let me just ask you a question, when you see all these stories about voter registration and all these new registered voters and, "Oh, this is exciting," aren't you getting the impression that they're all Democrats?

CALLER: I think that they're people that are very private and they're unwilling to disclose who they're voting for to the pollsters, that's what my gut is.

RUSH: Well, I mean, I'm not talking about the actual people themselves, I'm talking about when the press reports all this new registration out there, the accompanying implication -- I'm not inferring it -- there is an implication that the Democrats are going crazy, that there's so much hatred for Bush and so much support for Kerry, that Democrats are coming out in droves, and young people and old people and people who never voted for can't wait to get rid of Bush, all Democrats being registered. It just isn't true. It just isn't true. And all this new Republican registration and all the grassroots work that Republicans are doing in state after state after state doesn't get reported. And it's good in a way because it creates a sense of false I think security on the part of the Democrats. But my point is this. There are people that think that Republicans just sitting around and let the chips fall where they may, people show up, fine, if they don't show up, fine. That's not what's happening, is my only point, reiterate it once again.

I posted this ( http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1258657/posts ) at post #10 yesterday here on FR at 9:40 central time. Wonder if Rush saw it and said it? He pretty much said everything verbatim. I know Rush and his staff lurk here often....

Bush is in great shape in Ohio.

From the Horserace blog ( http://jaycost.blogspot.com/)

Besides my general knowledge of Ohio politics, this analysis is based on a few key facts about the ground game in Ohio:

1. ABC News reported over the summer that Bush/Cheney ’04 was, as of the spring, organized “down to the precinct level.”

2. Other news outlets have implied that Bush/Cheney ’04 has been adopting what appears more and more to be the old Democratic “knock-and-drag" model.

3. KE04 has “outsourced” their GOTV work to outside organizations.

I am also drawing on my knowledge of political machines to theorize about what these three facts really mean. I have spent some time reading the academic literature on political machines of the 19th (e.g. Philadelphia, New York City) and 20th (e.g. Chicago, Pittsburgh) centuries, and that has provided me some perspective on what makes for good GOTV organizations and poor ones. This analysis is also informed by my general understanding of what you might call theoretical political economy.

With my qualifications established, hopefully to your satisfaction, here is my argument for why Bush is right to consider Ohio a safe state and why we are wise to agree:

1. The fact that BC04 is organized down to the precinct level facilitates:

A. Intimate knowledge of every small section of the state. This would include:

1. Knowledge of the number and characteristics of registered voters in the precinct. What issues are enthusing voters? What issues are turning them off? What are the best forms of advertisement to affect voters in each precinct? What are the demographics of the voters in each precinct, and how are these affecting their voting attitudes?

2. An excellent estimate (i.e. an estimate with a low margin of error) of each candidate’s support, and strength of that support, in each precinct over time. This means that in the aggregate, BC04 are working from what is closer to a head-count than a poll of Ohio voters.

3. Ability to track small changes in voter attitudes before election day. This includes intensive monitoring and “discipline” within 72 hours of the election.

4. Precinct-by-precinct quotas built around A-1 and A-2. Specifically, BC04 could probably tell you with high specificity the minimal number of votes per precinct they need to get to enjoy a winning night.

5. In general, BC04 is able to detect problems in the state of Ohio and react efficiently to solve them. If we have not seen Dubya in Ohio until yesterday, it must mean that they are very confident about their position in Ohio. We we saw Dubya in the northeast section of the state, it has something to do with the situation there on the ground.

B. The ability to monitor polling place output on 11-2 and the ability to respond accordingly. This is where we would see BC04 start resembling the “knock and drag” strategy the Democrats have perfected.

C. The benefits of a vertical monopoly. Because the GOP and BC04 are controlling election activities at every level of this campaign, information costs are very low. In other words, people on the bottom can share information efficiently with people higher up, and vice-versa. KE04, meanwhile, because it has “outsourced” its GOTV efforts to organizations like A.C.T. and the labor unions, suffers from dramatically higher information costs – as messages must be communicated across organizations, and even at the cost of breaking the law.

D. The ability to monitor Democratic activities on the ground, and to adapt accordingly.

2. The GOP’s organizational effectiveness was tested in the 2002 general election and the 2004 primary. Thus, BC04 has had time to evaluate and correct systemic flaws (not to mention time to make requisite personal changes). Thus, they are probably enjoying the benefits of 1: A-D now more than they did in 2002.

3. This election is peculiar in ways that benefit Bush.

A. The gay marriage amendment naturally benefits Bush by inducing GOPers and GOP sympathizers to come to the polls. This, along with the GOTV efforts of the GOP, are likely the reasons why the media polls are using improper samples of the electorate.

B. There are no other contested races in the state. George Voinovich is cruising to reelection, and the governorship is not contested until 2006. This means that the only GOTV competition that BC04 faces is KE04 and their affiliated outside organizations. For instance, they need not worry about the “John Glenn Machine” turning people out to the polls to vote for Glenn and, coincidentally, Kerry.

4. Democrats have “outsourced” GOTV to multiple organizations. This hurts them on several levels:

A. It drastically increases information costs between groups. Different groups must now cross organizational boundaries to communicate with one another. This diminishes their flexibility and adaptability – which could be especially damaging on 11-02-04. Higher information costs also yield lower quantities of information. This might be why we have seen the break-ins of GOP headquarters. The GOP has probably lapped the Democratic groups time and again in terms of GOTV research. I am willing to guess that, in many districts, the GOP knows more about Democratic voters than the Democrats do.

B. There is the possibility of intra-Democratic competition– as organizations are more concerned with their reputation and long-term viability than getting Kerry elected. This might induce competition between pro-Kerry groups, reducing their effectiveness.

C. Information costs between KE04 and these groups are very, very high. It is illegal for them to communicate, I believe. Thus, every time they communicate, they run the risk of being caught – which, given the high degree of media and GOP monitoring, is a significant risk.

D. Many of the groups to whom KE04 have “outsourced” their work are untested. The person running the nationwide A.C.T. organization (Steve Rosenthal) had great success in turnout in Philadelphia, but his model remains untested on the national stage. The Ohio field director for ACT (Christy Setzer) was the field director of the Dean Campaign’s “Perfect Storm” in Iowa – nothing to shout about.

E. Many Democratic registration groups do not have the wherewithal to induce its registrants to vote. In other words, many groups are exclusively in the registration game, as opposed to the GOTV game. These new registrants can easily fall through the cracks of the Democratic conglomeration. Intra-Democratic competition could become key here, as one group who has registered voters does not want to hand its list over to a GOTV group, for fear that the latter become a dominant force and thus push the former group out of the market.

5. Ohio is not a swing state. Though it does not register voters by party – it is thoroughly Republican. Both Senators are Republican. The Governor is Republican. There are twice as many Republican than Democratic members in Ohio’s delegation to the House of Representatives.

A. BC04 finds itself having only to play defense in Ohio. There are enough “natural” Republicans in Ohio to tip the election to Bush. BC04’s job is to simply get them to the polls.

B. Ohio also lacks large swing sections. Besides portions of the northeast (e.g. Columbiana County) and central Ohio (e.g. Clark County), most Ohio counties are either thoroughly red or thoroughly blue. This means that the primary way to win a general presidential election in Ohio is through GOTV.

In general, BC04 appears to me to be an ethical, high-tech, more efficient version of the GOTV efforts of the 19th century Philadelphia machine run from Harrisburg by the state’s Republican establishment. This type of organization is particularly suited to Ohio, which is naturally Republican and which presents no comparable competition in GOTV this year. Look for the final partisan breakdowns on Election Day in OH to be much more pro-Republican than the current polling samples. As usual, look for the media to be surprised and the conventional wisdom to be wholly confounded.

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