Posted on 10/28/2004 9:29:15 AM PDT by ConservativeStLouisGuy
I got the mailers from the Reps.also, but have been getting 3-4 voice mails a day from the 'rats. I don't even listen, just erase, erase! Also have had no 'rats at my door, but that might be cause I have a big sign on my front door "We Believe the Swift Vets"!!
Thanks for the "Why Bush Will Win" link! Good stuff! :-)
I got that call too!
I just got back from my lunch break. Had an interesting experience.
I work in Fairlawn, OH. Fairlawn is a middle class to upper middle class suburb of Akron and has traditionally had a large Jewish population and usually seems to lean Democrat. There are a LOT of K/E signs, many more than Bush/Cheney.
Today at lunch, all along West Market St there are a bunch of Kerry supporters holding signs and all that. As I drove by, I laid on the horn with my thumb down out the window. When I stopped at the light in the center lane, I got a wink and smile from an older lady in the right lane next to me. In the left-turn lane, a young, quite attractive blond girl, probably early to mid 20s, shouted "Are you voting for Bush?" I replied "of course!" and she gave me a thumbs up and said "Good!"
I feel OK about Ohio right now.
Oh great...now I'll have to read another MSM story about how there's "Voter Intimidation" going on in Ohio... ;-)
Yes, it is on the ballot here, but support for it seems to be falling through the floor. I'm wondering at this point if it will help or hurt conservative candidates. While still leading in the polls, the trend seems to be going against the issue.
I'm looking forward to the kerry/springsteen rally tonight on OSU campus. (Where is edwards, btw?)
I just saw pics of them in Wisconsin, and kerry looked so thrilled to have this burned out old dude (sorry, he's an old dude to me)on stage with him. And I think the crowd was more excited to see bruce than john. Who wouldn't be?
kerry was practically groping the poor man like he was a prom date, and it just looked SAD.
I'm sure Ohioans will get a kick out of this sight this evening!
OHIO IS BUSH COUNTRY!
I believe you are correct, but surprisingly, Based on what I've seen in normally solid democratic areas, Bush has made significant inroads into normally pro-democrat support.
This is probably because, Kerry really is a flip flopping, liberal do nothing senator with no charisma at all. Further, the vast majority of women under 60 that I've talked to are for Bush, but the majority of under 25 white men are pro Kerry. This election in Ohio seems turned upside down.
Yep, I agree with all that. Especially the queasy part.
In Ohio, he does not, but neither does Bush. It's down to brass knuckle, hand to hand combat (figuratively speaking, I hope).
I posted this ( http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1258657/posts ) at post #10 yesterday here on FR at 9:40 central time. Wonder if Rush saw it and said it? He pretty much said everything verbatim. I know Rush and his staff lurk here often....
Bush is in great shape in Ohio.
From the Horserace blog ( http://jaycost.blogspot.com/)
Besides my general knowledge of Ohio politics, this analysis is based on a few key facts about the ground game in Ohio:
1. ABC News reported over the summer that Bush/Cheney ’04 was, as of the spring, organized “down to the precinct level.”
2. Other news outlets have implied that Bush/Cheney ’04 has been adopting what appears more and more to be the old Democratic “knock-and-drag" model.
3. KE04 has “outsourced” their GOTV work to outside organizations.
I am also drawing on my knowledge of political machines to theorize about what these three facts really mean. I have spent some time reading the academic literature on political machines of the 19th (e.g. Philadelphia, New York City) and 20th (e.g. Chicago, Pittsburgh) centuries, and that has provided me some perspective on what makes for good GOTV organizations and poor ones. This analysis is also informed by my general understanding of what you might call theoretical political economy.
With my qualifications established, hopefully to your satisfaction, here is my argument for why Bush is right to consider Ohio a safe state and why we are wise to agree:
1. The fact that BC04 is organized down to the precinct level facilitates:
A. Intimate knowledge of every small section of the state. This would include:
1. Knowledge of the number and characteristics of registered voters in the precinct. What issues are enthusing voters? What issues are turning them off? What are the best forms of advertisement to affect voters in each precinct? What are the demographics of the voters in each precinct, and how are these affecting their voting attitudes?
2. An excellent estimate (i.e. an estimate with a low margin of error) of each candidate’s support, and strength of that support, in each precinct over time. This means that in the aggregate, BC04 are working from what is closer to a head-count than a poll of Ohio voters.
3. Ability to track small changes in voter attitudes before election day. This includes intensive monitoring and “discipline” within 72 hours of the election.
4. Precinct-by-precinct quotas built around A-1 and A-2. Specifically, BC04 could probably tell you with high specificity the minimal number of votes per precinct they need to get to enjoy a winning night.
5. In general, BC04 is able to detect problems in the state of Ohio and react efficiently to solve them. If we have not seen Dubya in Ohio until yesterday, it must mean that they are very confident about their position in Ohio. We we saw Dubya in the northeast section of the state, it has something to do with the situation there on the ground.
B. The ability to monitor polling place output on 11-2 and the ability to respond accordingly. This is where we would see BC04 start resembling the “knock and drag” strategy the Democrats have perfected.
C. The benefits of a vertical monopoly. Because the GOP and BC04 are controlling election activities at every level of this campaign, information costs are very low. In other words, people on the bottom can share information efficiently with people higher up, and vice-versa. KE04, meanwhile, because it has “outsourced” its GOTV efforts to organizations like A.C.T. and the labor unions, suffers from dramatically higher information costs – as messages must be communicated across organizations, and even at the cost of breaking the law.
D. The ability to monitor Democratic activities on the ground, and to adapt accordingly.
2. The GOP’s organizational effectiveness was tested in the 2002 general election and the 2004 primary. Thus, BC04 has had time to evaluate and correct systemic flaws (not to mention time to make requisite personal changes). Thus, they are probably enjoying the benefits of 1: A-D now more than they did in 2002.
3. This election is peculiar in ways that benefit Bush.
A. The gay marriage amendment naturally benefits Bush by inducing GOPers and GOP sympathizers to come to the polls. This, along with the GOTV efforts of the GOP, are likely the reasons why the media polls are using improper samples of the electorate.
B. There are no other contested races in the state. George Voinovich is cruising to reelection, and the governorship is not contested until 2006. This means that the only GOTV competition that BC04 faces is KE04 and their affiliated outside organizations. For instance, they need not worry about the “John Glenn Machine” turning people out to the polls to vote for Glenn and, coincidentally, Kerry.
4. Democrats have “outsourced” GOTV to multiple organizations. This hurts them on several levels:
A. It drastically increases information costs between groups. Different groups must now cross organizational boundaries to communicate with one another. This diminishes their flexibility and adaptability – which could be especially damaging on 11-02-04. Higher information costs also yield lower quantities of information. This might be why we have seen the break-ins of GOP headquarters. The GOP has probably lapped the Democratic groups time and again in terms of GOTV research. I am willing to guess that, in many districts, the GOP knows more about Democratic voters than the Democrats do.
B. There is the possibility of intra-Democratic competition– as organizations are more concerned with their reputation and long-term viability than getting Kerry elected. This might induce competition between pro-Kerry groups, reducing their effectiveness.
C. Information costs between KE04 and these groups are very, very high. It is illegal for them to communicate, I believe. Thus, every time they communicate, they run the risk of being caught – which, given the high degree of media and GOP monitoring, is a significant risk.
D. Many of the groups to whom KE04 have “outsourced” their work are untested. The person running the nationwide A.C.T. organization (Steve Rosenthal) had great success in turnout in Philadelphia, but his model remains untested on the national stage. The Ohio field director for ACT (Christy Setzer) was the field director of the Dean Campaign’s “Perfect Storm” in Iowa – nothing to shout about.
E. Many Democratic registration groups do not have the wherewithal to induce its registrants to vote. In other words, many groups are exclusively in the registration game, as opposed to the GOTV game. These new registrants can easily fall through the cracks of the Democratic conglomeration. Intra-Democratic competition could become key here, as one group who has registered voters does not want to hand its list over to a GOTV group, for fear that the latter become a dominant force and thus push the former group out of the market.
5. Ohio is not a swing state. Though it does not register voters by party – it is thoroughly Republican. Both Senators are Republican. The Governor is Republican. There are twice as many Republican than Democratic members in Ohio’s delegation to the House of Representatives.
A. BC04 finds itself having only to play defense in Ohio. There are enough “natural” Republicans in Ohio to tip the election to Bush. BC04’s job is to simply get them to the polls.
B. Ohio also lacks large swing sections. Besides portions of the northeast (e.g. Columbiana County) and central Ohio (e.g. Clark County), most Ohio counties are either thoroughly red or thoroughly blue. This means that the primary way to win a general presidential election in Ohio is through GOTV.
In general, BC04 appears to me to be an ethical, high-tech, more efficient version of the GOTV efforts of the 19th century Philadelphia machine run from Harrisburg by the state’s Republican establishment. This type of organization is particularly suited to Ohio, which is naturally Republican and which presents no comparable competition in GOTV this year. Look for the final partisan breakdowns on Election Day in OH to be much more pro-Republican than the current polling samples. As usual, look for the media to be surprised and the conventional wisdom to be wholly confounded.
The Ohio women are going Bush, and the men are trending Kerry.
Which is completely bizarre!
I still think Bush will carry Ohio and the Democrat pollsters are spinning not polling.
With the economy recovering and Kerrey lookinig like a loon on security issues, I cant see Kerrey doing any better than maybe winning PA, but we'll see.
In 2000, there were 26,000---26,000!! voters in Warren County who did not vote. These are OVERWHELMINGLY conservative/Republicans. Turns out some did not want to vote because they would be put on JURY ROLLS! So the campaign made a deliberate effort to go out and talk to these people. Say half those people are gotten out to vote. That means now Kerry has to not only overcome Gore's loss margin of 110,000 from 2000, AND the net new GOP registrations of 19,000, but now have to come up with another 13,000 from this ONE COUNTY ALONE.
Almost 4 years ago when I was on my way to the polls to vote for Pres. Bush, I was listening to Rush's program and his predictions for the outcome of the election that day. He's full of hot air. That's not to say I don't hope he is right but I wouldn't bet on anything he says.
BTW, there is an easy way to make sure you are contacted by the GOP. Call them. Jeez.
This is like people who stand around saying they would never go to a party, then whine about not getting asked.
Indeed, my only concern with the 72-hour program is that it might contact people so often as to alienate them!
You misunderstand. I have no interest in being contacted. I just thought it was odd that Rush heard that they knew what every voter was doing since they don't know about me or my husband or my coworkers. The less calls I get the better.
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