Posted on 10/26/2004 2:04:15 PM PDT by StopDemocratsDotCom
WashPost Tracking: Kerry: 50% Bush: 48%
Oh no!!! It's all over!!!
Seriously though before getting worked up most of the polls are going our way and the state polls are the most important and we are winning in Ohio and Florida.
Also most national polls have us up. Just because one or two polls show Kerry ahead doesn't mean Kerry will win the popular vote. If 10 polls say Bush is ahead and 2 say Kerry is ahead, use your brain to figure out what is really going on.
Kerry had his best day yesterday! It sucks but they have him at 50% for the 25th.
Something is not right with this poll compared to the others.
Can anyone explain why Kerry GAINED since yesterday...should not he have dropped since Monday would be included in this?
I don't get this....with better Bush numbers Monday, we presume, Kerry still gained. Doesn't this mean Monday's numbers weren't good either?
I guess Wednesday should be able to give us some sort of clue, but it is a bit worrisome...though not really since the tracking polls seem to be having an enhanced pro-Kerry weekend effect that lingers more as the election gets very close (check Rass and the WAPO to confirm that...Kerry is gaining more and more on the weekends, indicating more Dems motivated to vote apparently).
I've done a little number crunching:
In the latest polls taken by fifteen major polling groups the President has polled at 48% or higher in all but two of them. Kerry's numbers have varied quite wildly between 43% and 50%.
It seems to me that 48% of the electorate has decided to definitely vote for Bush/Cheney. Let's speculate that 46%, a median of Kerry's numbers, has decided to definitely vote for Kerry/Edwards. A reasonable assumption is that the third party candidates will take about 2% between them. This leaves 4% undecided.
Even if we use the pessimistic scenario of the undecideds breaking 65-35 in favor of the challenger that would still lead to a 49.4-48.6 victory in the popular vote for President Bush. There would be some danger of a defeat in the Electoral College with a margin that tight, but it would be unlikely.
Movement in a tracking poll depends on only two things: the new poll data being added and the old poll data being dropped. It is possible, even likely, that Bush had a good day yesterday (the date being added), but he had an even better day four days ago (the date being dropped). If this happened, Kerry would get an uptick in the three day results even though the latest poll favored Bush.
In any event, unless Kerry does at least as well tomorrow as he did on Saturday, Bush will get an uptick tomorrow -- even if Kerry wins the one day sample today. Of course, if Bush wins today's sample, the uptick will be even greater.
All of this illustrates that tracking polls are good to spot trends over a few days or a week, but do not necessarily reflect the state of the race as of the date the rolloing averages are published.
In this case, we know Kerry had a great Saturday in this poll because the guy who runs the poll said so. On Sunday he reported that Kerry had an enormous upward spike in the Saturday sample.
As for the general idea that 'Rats poll better on weekends, it's just one of those things we've heard reported for years. Rasmussen says it's a myth, yet, like clockwork, Kerry closes in on Bush over each weekend, and then Bush starts to open a lead again in mid-week after the weekend days scroll off.
Am I not reading correctly? There are 2 posts saying Bush 50 and Kerry 48 but the ABC website shows just the opposite.
I just read the ABC version of this story, which said that Bush had a good day yesterday, while Kerry also had a good day Sunday. So, today's results will replace Kerry's excellent results, meaning that unless Kerry does as well today as he did Saturday, Bush is going to get an uptick tomorrow -- and the better Bush does today, the bigger the uptick tomorrow. The same thing should happen on Thursday, as tomorrow night's sample replaces Kerry's good Sunday sample (although it wasn't as good as Saturday).
The same story reported that among early and absentee voters, Bush is leading 51-47. Of course, these voters are most likely to be the hardcore partisans for each side (including, ahem, your's truly). I suspect that Bush will do even better among people who are not as passionate or hardcore about their politics -- this is where all of Bush's great internals (e.g. likability, leadership qualities, conviction, and character traits) will finally pay off. My original prediction has been unchanged for months -- 52-46 -- and I'm sticking to it.
MHO, its garbage.
FYI, the ABC news version of this story said that Bush polled well yesterday, so this thing should start moving back in the right direction beginning tomorrow.
not accurate.
Weekend samples ... meaning people sitting around watching TV are home to answer the phone. The same people that will be watching tv on election day and not going out to vote.
Now I'm confused again. This link says they use a three day sample.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A9363-2004Oct5.html
They are rounding numbers.
I now know that Kerry polled well on Sunday (but not as well as Saturday) and Bush polled well yesterday. Expect to see an uptick for Bush in the next two days as the Saturday and Sunday poll results roll off (unless, of course, Kerry at least matches his results for these two days).
Really, tracking polls are a bit misleading, except to spot trends. Bush "won" yesterday -- the most recent result -- yet lost a point in the tracking poll because he didn't do as well yesterday as he apparently did on Friday (the day that dropped off).
The state by state polls are looking good for Bush. Best of all, polling of early voters is showing Bush ahead 51-47, according to ABC. The early voters, of course, tend to be the hardcore partisans for both sides. I have a hunch that Bush is going to do even better among the rest of the electorate (who are not as eager to vote as we hardcore partisan types). This is where Bush's superior internals (character, leadership, onviction, likability, favorability rating, etc.) will finally pay off big.
Uh, right. And I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell if anyone is interested.
The sky is falling. Kerry and Edwards are tied among men ...
Candidate : Men | Women | Total Bush and Cheney 49% 47% 48% Kerry and Edwards 48% 51% 50%
Do I believe this is credible ?
No
The silent majority will carry the day next Tuesday.
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