I now know that Kerry polled well on Sunday (but not as well as Saturday) and Bush polled well yesterday. Expect to see an uptick for Bush in the next two days as the Saturday and Sunday poll results roll off (unless, of course, Kerry at least matches his results for these two days).
Really, tracking polls are a bit misleading, except to spot trends. Bush "won" yesterday -- the most recent result -- yet lost a point in the tracking poll because he didn't do as well yesterday as he apparently did on Friday (the day that dropped off).
The state by state polls are looking good for Bush. Best of all, polling of early voters is showing Bush ahead 51-47, according to ABC. The early voters, of course, tend to be the hardcore partisans for both sides. I have a hunch that Bush is going to do even better among the rest of the electorate (who are not as eager to vote as we hardcore partisan types). This is where Bush's superior internals (character, leadership, onviction, likability, favorability rating, etc.) will finally pay off big.
The silent majority will carry the day next Tuesday.