PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush has moved back ahead of Sen. John Kerry among likely voters in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, essentially returning the race to where it was before the three presidential debates.

Among likely voters, Bush is ahead of Kerry by a 52% to 44% margin, exactly the same as in the last Gallup Poll conducted before the debates began in late September. Among registered voters, Bush has a 49% to 46% margin over Kerry.

Two CNN/USA Today/Gallup polls conducted during the debates indicated that Kerry had brought the race to a tie, and Americans clearly perceived that Kerry won each debate over Bush. Nevertheless, the current poll suggests that Kerry's perceived strong debate performance may have had only a temporary effect on the structure of the race. Kerry has now lost the edge he enjoyed among likely voters during the debate period, and Republicans have again become more enthusiastic than Democrats about their votes.

Despite the lead Bush has opened up nationally, the two candidates are essentially tied among likely voters in the 16 competitive showdown states in which the race for electoral votes is being fought. This suggests that some of Bush's current national gains may in essence be "lost" in states where the election outcome is fairly certain to be strongly for Bush or strongly for Kerry.

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Oregon: Two-Way Horse Race Demographics

Based on Registered Voters

	Oct 15-18
	Kerry	Bush
	%	%
Total	52	45

Gender
Men	48	49
Women	55	42

Race
Whites	52	46

Age
18-34	53	47
35-54	52	43
55+	52	46

Region
Multnomah county	73	24
Northwest/Pacific coast	51	44
Suburbs/capital area	53	44
South and west	32	65

Education
Post-graduate	69	29
College graduate	48	51
Some college	50	47
High school or less	50	47

Income
$75,000 or more	46	53
$40,000-$74,999	52	47
Less than $40,000	58	40

Ideology
Conservative	17	82
Moderate	61	37
Liberal	95	4

Partisanship
Republicans	5	94
Independents	53	41
Democrats	92	8

How much thought have you given to the upcoming election for president -- quite a lot, or only a little?

	Quite a lot	Some (vol.)	Only a little	None (vol.)	No opinion
Registered Voters
2004 Oct 15-18	91%	2	6	*	1

Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates. Would you vote for – [ROTATED: John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats (or) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans]?

As of today, do you lean more toward – [ROTATED: Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats (or) Bush and Cheney, the Republicans]?

	Kerry/ Edwards	Bush/ Cheney	Neither/other/ no opinion
Likely Voters
2004 Oct 15-18	53%	45	2

Likely Voters
2004 Oct 15-18	52%	45	3

As you may know, there is a proposal on the ballot to amend the Oregon state constitution so that only marriages between a man and a woman would be recognized as legal and valid by the state. If the election were held today, would you vote for or against this proposal?

	For	Against	Not vote (vol.)	No opinion
Likely Voters
2004 Oct 15-18	50%	44	1	5

Likely Voters
2004 Oct 15-18	51%	42	*	7

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