Posted on 10/13/2004 4:07:26 PM PDT by Perdogg
The spin on polls has got a lot of people getting nervous. Its not necessary.
First off, step away from the Daily Tracking Polls. They have a much smaller base of respondents than normal polls, they do not release detailed internals, and they are no more reliable than some guy you meet at the grocery. Remember to check out what drives the numbers, and if the poll wont say, then its unreliable by definition.
Now, if you want to see reasons why Bush is DEFINITELY going to win, consider this:
Basically, it comes down to three factors; Key Issues, Strength-of-Support, and Turnout.
First, Key Issues. Theres a lot of chatter, but over the past two years, people have clearly said over and over they really only wonder about three big issues: The Economy, Iraq, and the War on Terror. The Economy was weak last year, but has been steadily growing for a long time. Notice how the Democrats have had to progressively back off their talk about Recession, then about no new jobs, then they finally resorted to statistics, trying to get people to stop thinking things are good. Thats not a winning hand. Next, things in Iraq have really settled down since May, with the Handover of Sovereignty and the coming elections, and the news that the Sadr Militia is disbanding. Then theres Terrorism. Kerry somehow still doesnt get it, to the point that he talks about the #1 issue with voters, as a nuisance. All of these work to Bushs advantage.
Now, about Strength-of-Support. Even when Kerry had a lead this summer, I noticed that his internals showed his voters werent hard-core, but soft, while the Presidents support has always been concentrated, very focused. Kerry never got around to specifics in his plans, and his attacks on Bush ran only on emotion; even with all the attention, there was never a scrap of substance to them, so Kerry also became seen as a man attacking a strong President. Strong enough, that even after a poor first debate, Bush was seen as a more decisive leader, and a better man in a crisis. That keeps things going in the same direction.
Then theres Turnout. A lot of people talk about the 48-60% turnout, but few people pay attention to what causes the dropoff. In the end, the fact is that most people dont think much about elections, especially since most voters only show up for Presidential and Congressional elections. Its not routine, it means getting registered, then remembering to find out where and when to vote, and if you dont vote early (most people dont), then you have to remember to make extra time on one day to go to a place you have likely not been before. Basically, people only turn out in big numbers when they are really excited by a candidate, or they are really mad at his opponent. Simply put, Kerry is not exciting to very many people, but Dubya is, and more, Kerry has said the same things for so long, it doesnt really charge people up. But the attacks on Bush, especially the lies told, have revved up the Bush people.
Put it all together, and yes, Im comfortable with the idea that President will put up big numbers. Actually, President Bush had the chance for some really big numbers, but he is not as eloquent as Reagan, and the media has slammed him pretty good. But with a good economy and a decent foreign policy, 55% PV is not unreasonable.
Dont get lazy or over-confident, but dont give yourself an ulcer, either. You knew the MSM was going to make noise, didnt you?
The dims may actually get to cheat less this year, even though they are trying harder. It's been such a huge effort that it has raised red flags all over the place.
One could hope that anyway. The polls have indicated some tightening, but really nothing has changed so much that Bush would lose the election. I also have about as much faith in polls as I do the MSM, which is practically zero.
On to the election. If the best man wins, it certainly won't be John Kerry.
the point about people being excited about voting for Bush is right on, IMO. And there's a helluva lot more people that love Bush than hate him!
Broken glass 'pubbie bump.
No need to worry. Look, would you rather be in Kerry's position?..two points down in most polls and with the Electoral College on Bush's side? I bet the DU would rather be in our position. Look after Debate II, all the Dems spinners were saying Kerry win and "the polls will give us the lead" Didn't happen. As a matter of fact, some states seem to be moving to Bush. Florida, Colorado, and Ohio are trending Republican. If this were to materialize, game over for Kerry/Edwards.
So, we are still in the driver's seat and Kerry is outside looking in. Pray that Bush does well in the debate. If Bush wins then we got momentum, if it is seen as a tie, it helps Bush because Kerry would have squandered his last chance. If Kerry is seen as winning the debate, the polls will continue the same until the final week when we'll get a surprise either from the Swift vets or from the Navy. Finally, Iraq will take center stage next week since it seems that Allawi will blow away Falluja...hopefully we get Al-Zarqawi and that would be welcome news for Bush. So, as Hannity says, don't let your hearts be troubled, we are moving in the right direction.
Does anybody know any election where the polls showed a much closer race than the actual election. If i remember, 1980 or 84 was closer in the polls than the actual results.
Pray for W and Our Troops
Karl Rove said today that the GOP will have a person in every precinct in battleground states.
praying for a landslide too. Many are praying for this, so let's agree, let's decree it and it shall be established. Amen.
I don't know if 'one person' will be enough, considering how many fraudulent voters they're going to have to 'oversee'.
I'm hoping for the best, but be prepared for a complete upset!
praying for a landslide too. Many are praying for this, so let's agree, let's decree it and it shall be established. Amen.
What they will do is wait until they see they need a few hundred votes, like they did in NM and SD and then bring out the ballots.
If we are winning by a few % points, even their fraud will not be able to overcome that.
Republicans have been known to win even close elections!
What worries me is some guy on the radio news who said he could tell from the Bush team's eyes and body language that they were worried. Also George Will is uncertain and even Ollie North. This oil situation is bad too.
I'm joining you in prayer for rain on November 2. AMEN,(done)
I am so confident that Bush will win that I will be flying to Miami's Little Havana to await the results with some Republican friends at Versalles Restaurant. I expect Kerry to give a concession speech at 11:30 Pm and Michael Moore to commit suicide at midnight.
The Democratic voter turnout will be low except for the fraud issue. That is why the Dems need to have close polling numbers to prompt the lefties to vote in large number.
I am doing my part... like a raving maniac!!!!!!!! emailing, chatting, working gop headquarters, getting petitions from here sent out on mass email lists, making calls ....etc. Even had a rep from Congressman Roy Blunt's office chat in my room... but there is NO way I am going to relax until the fat lady dang on yodels for W
...and quite a lot of people are really mad on Dubya, though they're not too excited by his opponent. I do believe GWB will be returned to the office, but the picture isn't so rosy as you describe it.
As to the polls, they are indeed misleading, and this is a deliberate deception by the pollsters who are really the same ex-radical campus mob as the mainstream media.
Look what happened in Australia last week: the conservative incumbent John Howard, a staunch W's ally, won by wide margin taking away from Labor several seats in both of the parliament houses.
But all the way through the campaign polls showed neck-to-neck, too close to call race, and sometimes even a slight lead for the pinko Left candidate.
What, did Assies make their minds up en masse the very last day, before going to the boxes?
Would you believe such a crap?
No, it just meant that the polls were false all along - as they are in the US.
The key will be, do they hate Bush more than they just dislike Kerry. I think we tend to think all democrats are like the ones in Du when most of them aren't like that. They are the kooks of the democrat party. Most of the dem voters are just everyday people who have been spoon fed the trash by the MSM and don't know any different. I hope Bush starts to disclaim some of the economic lies he has been letting Kerry get away with. Like the job numbers and the so called uninsured.
bump later read
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.