Posted on 10/02/2004 1:45:56 PM PDT by tsmith130
Edited on 10/02/2004 2:53:28 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
Sat Oct 02 2004 16:42:32 ET
New York-Sixty-one percent of Americans who watched the first presidential debate on September 30 say Sen. John Kerry won; 19 percent say President George W. Bush won and 16 percent say they tied, according to the latest Newsweek Poll which was conducted after the debate ended. Fifty-six percent say Kerry did better than they expected; 11 percent say so for Bush. Thirty-eight percent say Bush did worse than expected; 3 percent say so for Kerry, the poll shows.
The debate erased the lead the Bush/Cheney ticket has held over Kerry/Edwards in the Newsweek Poll since the Republican convention. In a three-way trial heat including Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo, among registered voters Kerry/Edwards leads Bush/Cheney 47 percent v. 45 percent with 2 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way heat, Kerry/Edwards leads 49 percent v. 46 percent for Bush/Cheney, the poll shows.
A 62-percent majority of viewers says Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (26% say so for Bush) and 51 percent say Kerry had better command of issues and facts (37% for Bush). Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush) and 49 percent say Kerry came closer to reflecting their own views on most foreign policy issues (43% for Bush). The two were nearly even on several other points, including who came across as a strong leader (47% Kerry, 44% Bush) and who had a better plan for dealing with the situation in Iraq (45% for both). Forty percent of viewers thought Kerry was too wordy and 57 percent thought Bush was too repetitive.
Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. Bush's job approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek Poll to 46 percent-a 6-point drop since the poll taken during and after the Republican convention. Forty-eight percent of registered voters polled say they would not like to see Bush re-elected but almost as many (46%) say they would.
Excerpt, the rest of the article is here: NEWSWEEK POLL: BUSH LEAD GONE
Lurch creeps me out too.
This is a PUSH POLL of registered voters.
The link on Drudge takes you to MSNBC which has a link to the poll. Read the questions
They all have the same talking points: "Bush blew it big time...Rove should be lynched for not preparing him properly."
There has even been a suggestion that Rove took a bribe from Kerry to misprepare the President AND deprive him of sleep. No kidding.
These threads are like stopping to look at a car wreck....you know you should move on for the sake of traffic but you feel like you just have to help if you can and respond! LOL!
It's time for me to go to my daughter's concert and if I sit here any longer, my family will think I've left them. :)
Instead of stories saying Kerry tanking or Kerry in big trouble....the media get to run story after story saying Kerry surging......Kerry comeback, etc,etc.
Bush should have put him away on Thursday. Now we are back to having a race. The Dem's are motivated and thinking they have a chance. An enemy is always dangerous when they think they can win.
Go for it. I wonder about some of the so called "BUSH" supporters.
Yep.
Because they are!
More accurately, they are anti-Bush folks who want to go back to a Clinton-era Free Republic where we had a fellowship of "hatas".
That was then, this is now. We've had a divergence on this forum between those who are viscerally able to support and invest and those who just are "anti". The gracelessly aging old men are making a last stand.
I hope you opened the pharmacy and provided some sedation for this poster, Petronski. Bwahaha!
Prairie
I can't imagine Kerry as President either. My opinion of him couldn't get much lower and I refused to believe he could actually win in Nov.
However, Bush's performance was so bad in the debate that he managed to make Kerry look better by comparison. And most voters will not do the research needed to see what a total fraud Kerry is.
I'm still hoping something will happen to prevent a Kerry victory, but this set back has really discouraged me.
You don't and I don't, but let's face it, there are people out there that do/will.
If you step back, it's amusing.
And it DOES make you realize that the GOOD GUY is winning!
LOL! It's going to take a whole TEAM effort!
You just gave me my first good laugh all day. That was especially welcome, after reading the New York Times letters page, whose editor published 9 letters by socialists attacking the president, to two letters defending him.
Curmudgegedden.
everyone has to die sometime. Maybe they should just get on the ball and get the deed done. Make room for new blood.
You got it right! We can just kiss this country goodbye if socialist one-worlder kerrywonks win this election because Bush didn't take this first debate seriously! Remember only about 10 percent of Americans think! (most of them are here on FreeRepublic). We voted Clinton in for 8 yeas because he made us feel good. All we need is a Carole Simpson asking smarmy questions and the soccer moms are back on the Kerry wagon! We had momentum and energy and Bush's sorry performance is going to make us fight for every vote. People in Ohio, Florida, West Virginia, Pa., Wisc., Listen up and vote conservative! Your votes will count 100 times more than my Georgia vote which Bush will win by 15 percent!
Here's the offender:
You can spin it anyway you want.
The fact is Bush could have won this one in a walk.
Something was done to him. He was sabotaged. He was systematically under-prepped and over-cautioned and obviously over-tired.
Kerry has billions.
Rove sold our President down the river for a swiftboat load of cash.
393 posted on 10/02/2004 6:07:20 PM EDT by samtheman (www.swiftvets.com)
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews859.html
The Republican National Convention is over and score it a huge success for President George W. Bush. For one solid week he was on message and got Americans who watched to listen to the message he intends to carry in the fall campaign: leadership, decisiveness and success battling the war on terrorism. The convention actually followed another big week for Mr. Bush and equally dismal one for his opponent, Democratic Senator John Kerry.
Now the first polls are out. I have Mr. Bush leading by 2 points in the simple head-to-head match up - 46% to 44%. Add in the other minor candidates and it becomes a 3 point advantage for the President - 46% to 43%. This is no small achievement. The President was behind 50% to 43% in my mid-August poll and he essentially turned the race around by jumping 3 points as Mr. Kerry lost 7 points. Impressive by any standards.
For the first time in my polling this year, Mr. Bush lined up his Republican ducks in a row by receiving 90% support of his own party, went ahead among Independents, and now leads by double-digits among key groups like investors. Also for the first time the President now leads among Catholics. Mr. Kerry is on the ropes.
Two new polls came out immediately after mine (as of this writing) by the nation's leading weekly news magazines. Both Time's 52% to 41% lead among likely voters and Newsweek's 54% to 43% lead among registered voters give the President a healthy 11 point lead. I have not yet been able to get the details of Time's methodology but I have checked out Newsweek's poll. Their sample of registered voters includes 38% Republican, 31% Democrat and 31% Independent voters. If we look at the three last Presidential elections, the spread was 34% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 33% Independents (in 1992 with Ross Perot in the race); 39% Democrats, 34% Republicans, and 27% Independents in 1996; and 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents in 2000. While party identification can indeed change within the electorate, there is no evidence anywhere to suggest that Democrats will only represent 31% of the total vote this year. In fact, other competitors have gone in the opposite direction. The Los Angeles Times released a poll in June of this year with 38% Democrats and only 25% Republicans. And Gallup's party identification figures have been all over the place.
This is no small consideration. Given the fact that each candidate receives anywhere between eight in ten and nine in ten support from voters in his own party, any change in party identification trades point for point in the candidate's total support. My polls use a party weight of 39% Democrat, 35% Republican and 26% Independent. Thus in examining the Newsweek poll, add three points for Mr. Bush because of the percentage of Republicans in their poll, then add another 8% for Mr. Bush for the reduction in Democrats. It is not hard to see how we move from my two-point lead to their eleven-point lead for the President.
I will save the detailed methodological discussion for another time. But I will remind readers that my polling has come closest to the final results in both 1996 and 2000.
None of this takes away from the President's achievement. He got out of his party's convention everything he needed to launch his campaign in earnest in the closing two months. But my poll still reveals lurking shadows for him. He still has a net negative job performance rating, a negative re-elect (i.e. more voters think it is time for someone new than feel he deserves re-election) and a net negative wrong direction for the country.
The poll also suggests that Mr. Kerry is behind and has a lot of work to do to refocus the campaign on the issues that must work for him: the economy, health care, and the execution of the war in Iraq. We also see now that at least in the short run, the advertising campaign against the Senator about his military service in Vietnam has raised questions about his integrity and has caused his personal unfavorable numbers to jump.
But with all that said, it simply is not an 11 point race. It just isn't.
John Zogby is the President and CEO of Zogby International- an independent polling firm, and writes this column for the Financial Times where it first appeared..
You ain't foolin' nobody pal...you are a Kerry supporter.
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