| Press Release |
Source: Newsweek |
NEWSWEEK POLL: Campaign 2004
Saturday September 11, 11:44 am ET Voters Split Over Bush's Military Service; 42 Percent Have Serious Doubts, Same Number Says He Fulfilled ObligationsBush/Cheney Leads Kerry/Edwards 49 to 43 Percent In Three-Way Trial Heat; Leads 50 to 45 In Two-Way HeatForty-Two Percent of Independents Say Both Campaigns Have Been Too Negative
NEW YORK, Sept. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- From what they've seen, heard or read about the controversy over President George W. Bush's service in the National Guard at the time of the Vietnam War, registered voters are split over whether he fulfilled his military obligations, according to the latest Newsweek Poll. Forty-two percent say Bush did fulfill his obligations for military service; the same number (42%) say they have serious doubts about it, the poll shows. Just 18 percent of registered voters say Bush's National Guard issue has made them less likely to vote for him in November; 73 percent say it hasn't had much of an effect either way, the poll shows. Five percent say it will make them more likely to vote for him.
And from what they've seen, heard or read about Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry's military service in Vietnam, just 17 percent of registered voters say it has made them less likely to vote for him, the poll shows. Sixty-four percent say it hasn't made much of a difference either way. Fifteen percent say it has made them more likely to vote for him, the poll shows. One week after the GOP convention, the latest Newsweek Poll shows Bush's bounce slowly deflating. In a three-way trial heat, the Bush/Cheney ticket gets 49 percent of the vote among registered voters; the Kerry/Edwards ticket gets 43 percent of the vote; Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo get 2 percent, the poll shows. One week ago, in the Newsweek Poll taken at the end of the GOP convention and the day after the convention, Bush/Cheney had pulled to an 11- point lead (52% v. 41%) with 3 percent for Nader/Camejo. In a two-way trial without the Nader ticket, among registered voters, Bush/Cheney are ahead of Kerry/Edwards 50 to 45 percent, with five percent of registered voters undecided. One week ago in the two-way race, Bush/Cheney were ahead of Kerry/Edwards 54 to 43 percent with three percent undecided. When asked about the tone of this presidential campaign, 25 percent of registered voters say the Bush/Cheney campaign has been too negative or nasty; 21 percent say so for Kerry/Edwards but 33 percent say they've both been negative, the poll shows. Among independents, 24 percent feel the Republicans have been too negative, 16 percent feel the Democrats have been and 42 percent feel both campaigns have been too negative. Among registered voters who say they've seen any TV ads for Bush, 27 percent say they are too negative and 35 percent say they're not. Among registered voters who have seen ads for Kerry, 28 percent say they're too negative and 35 percent say they're not, the poll shows. While 38 percent of registered voters say the country would be more vulnerable to a terrorist attack if Kerry were elected president than if Bush were re-elected, 20 percent say the country would be less vulnerable if Kerry were elected and 35 percent say they country would be about as vulnerable to an attack with Kerry as it would with Bush. Fifty-three percent of all those polled say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. at this time (39% are satisfied) and President Bush's job approval rating dropped to 48 percent (from 52% in the Sept. 2-3, 2004 GOP convention poll). Fifty percent of registered voters say they would like to see President Bush re-elected to another term, a drop from 53 percent one week ago in the poll. In comparing the two presidential candidates, more registered voters think President Bush has strong leadership qualities than Kerry (62% vs. 50%), says what he believes and not just what people want to hear (66% vs. 45%), would trust him to make the right decisions during an international crisis (54% vs. 46%), shares their values (52% vs. 46%), and is personally likeable (67% vs. 59%). More registered voters think Bush is honest and ethical (55% vs. 54%) but 74 percent say Kerry is intelligent and well-informed compared to 59 percent who say so for Bush. In addition, more registered voters think President Bush would do a better job than Sen. Kerry on terrorism and homeland security (58% vs. 34%) and the situation in Iraq (54% v 39%) and taxes (47% v. 42%). They're even on who would handle the economy better (46% for both), but Kerry does better on health care, including Medicare (50% v. 40%); education (46% v. 45%) and American jobs and foreign competition (47% v. 42%) Two months before the election, more registered voters (25%) say terrorism and homeland security is the most important issue in determining their vote. Twenty-one percent say it's the economy, 15 percent say the situation in Iraq and 14 percent say health care, including Medicare. For this Newsweek Poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates International interviewed 1,003 registered voters on September 9-10, 2004. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The total number interviewed was 1,166 adults, with a margin of error plus or minus 3 percentage points. This poll is part of the September 20 issue of Newsweek (on newsstands Monday, September 13).
- (Poll attached. Read Newsweek's news releases at http://www.Newsweek.com. Click "Pressroom" at bottom of page.)
Newsweek Poll
Post-Labor Day
Princeton Survey Research Associates International
Final Topline Results
(9/11/04)
N = 1,003 Registered Voters
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: September 9-10, 2004
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS:
1,166 Total adults (plus or minus 3)
SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
1,003 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)
391 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
300 Democrats (plus or minus 7)
270 Independents (plus or minus 7)
481 Men (plus or minus 5)
522 Women (plus or minus 5)
99 18-29 (plus or minus 11)
321 30-49 (plus or minus 6)
321 50-64 (plus or minus 6)
236 65+ (plus or minus 7)
273 Southern White (plus or minus 7)
565 Non-Southern White (plus or minus 5)
131 Non-White (plus or minus 8)
377 Military households (respondent or spouse has served in military)
(plus or minus 6)
611 Non-military households (plus or minus 5)
391 Republican states (plus or minus 7)
300 Democratic states (plus or minus 6)
270 Swing states (plus or minus 6)
514 Bush/Cheney supporters (plus or minus 5)
420 Kerry/Edward supporters (plus or minus 6)
NOTE: Data are weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current
Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race and
region.
NOTE: Reported sample sizes for subgroups listed above are unweighted and
should NOT be used to compute percentages.
NOTE: An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%.
**REGIONAL DEFINITIONS
Republican states: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC,
ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, VA, WY
Swing states: AZ, AR, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, OR, PA,
TN, WA, WV, WI
Democratic states: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT
Results for questions 1a/b and 2a/b include leaners.
1a/b. Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the following
three choices for president and vice president... (INSERT CHOICES
AND ROTATE) George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; John
Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats; and Ralph Nader and Peter
Camejo, the Independent or third party candidates. Who would you
vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT BUSH/CHENEY, KERRY/EDWARDS, OR
NADER/CAMEJO RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more
toward...Bush and Cheney, the Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the
Democrats; or Nader and Camejo?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Three-Way Trial Heat
Total Total Total Undec./Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Nader/Camejo
Current Total 49 43 2 6 =100
Republicans 93 4 1 2 =100
Democrats 7 87 * 6 =100
Independents 39 45 7 9 =100
Men 49 43 3 5 =100
Women 49 43 2 6 =100
18-29 43 46 7 4 =100
30-49 51 41 2 6 =100
50-64 46 46 2 6 =100
65+ 50 40 * 10 =100
Southern
White 66 28 1 5 =100
Non-Southern
White 49 42 3 6 =100
Non-White 32 61 2 5 =100
Military
households 55 36 2 7 =100
Non-military 46 46 3 5 =100
households
Republican
states 59 36 1 4 =100
Swing states 53 41 2 4 =100
Democratic
states 34 52 4 10 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 52 41 3 4 =100
(8/5-10/04) 45 47 2 6 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 3 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 44 47 3 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 43 5 10 =100
(4/8-9/04) 42 46 4 8 =100
(3/25-26/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 43 5 7 =100
Note: 8/5-10/04 trend from Pew Research Center. Trends before 7/8-9/04
based on slightly different question wording that did not include
vice presidential candidates' names.
1c. Do you support (INSERT Q.1a CHOICE: Bush and Cheney/Kerry and
Edwards/Nader and Camejo) STRONGLY or only moderately?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Candidate
Preference/Strength of
Support
Total 9/2-3/ 8/5-10/ 7/29-30/ 7/8-9/ 5/13-14/
04 04 04 04 04
Bush/Cheney Voters
35 Strong 39 32 30 31 24
14 Not Strong 13 13 12 13 18
Kerry/Edwards Voters
26 Strong 25 28 31 25 22
17 Not Strong 16 19 18 22 21
Nader/Camejo Voters
1 Strong 1 1 * 1 1
1 Not Strong 2 1 3 2 4
6 Undecided/Other 4 6 6 6 10
100 100 100 100 100 100
Note: 8/5-10/04 trend from Pew Research Center. 5/13-14/04 trend based on
results that did not include vice presidential candidates.
Strength of Support by Candidate Preference
Bush/Cheney Supporters Kerry/Edwards Supporters
Strength of Support
Strong 72 60
Not Strong 28 40
100 100
Number of Interviews (514) (420)
2a/b. Suppose there were only two choices for president and vice president
and you HAD TO CHOOSE between... (INSERT CHOICES AND ROTATE) George
W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans, and John Kerry and John
Edwards, the Democrats. If the election were held TODAY, who would
you vote for? [IF DO NOT SUPPORT BUSH/CHENEY OR KERRY/EDWARDS,
RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward...Bush
and Cheney, the Republicans or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Two-Way Trial Heat
Total Total Undecided/Other
Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards
Current Total 50 45 5 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 54 43 3 =100
(7/29-30/04) 44 52 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 45 51 4 =100
(5/13-14/04) 45 46 9 =100
(4/8-9/04) 43 50 7 =100
(3/25-26/04) 47 48 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 48 48 4 =100
(2/19-20/04) 45 48 7 =100
(2/5-6/04) 45 50 5 =100
(1/29-30/04) 46 48 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 46 49 5 =100
(1/8-9/04) 52 41 7 =100
(12/11-12/03) 51 41 8 =100
(11/6-7/03) 49 45 6 =100
(10/23-24/03) 50 42 8 =100
(10/9-10/03) 48 42 10 =100
(9/25-26/03) 50 42 8 =100
(9/18-19/03) 48 43 9 =100
(7/10-11/03) 50 42 8 =100
Note: All trends prior to 7/8-9/04 based on slightly different question
wording that did not include vice presidential candidates' names.
July 2003 to February 2004 trends are based on a slightly different
question that was not preceded by the three way trial heat including
Nader. Earlier trial heats were preceded by questions about the
Democratic presidential race.
3. Next, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of
the following people in politics. If I mention someone you had never
heard of before this interview, just tell me. (First,) what about...
(INSERT READ AND ROTATE ITEMS A & B FIRST; THEN READ AND ROTATE ITEMS C
& D) (Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard DK
of
a. George W. Bush
Current RVs 52 44 * 4 =100
Trends - RVs
(9/2-3/04) 55 40 * 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 48 0 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 51 45 * 4 =100
(5/13-14/04) 46 46 0 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 48 46 * 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 51 44 0 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 52 42 * 6 =100
(2/19-20/04) 49 47 * 4 =100
(2/24-25/00) 55 36 * 9 =100
(1/17-19/00) 66 26 * 8 =100
(10/21-24/99) 71 21 1 7 =100
b. John Kerry
Current RVs 48 44 1 7 =100
Trends - RVs
(9/2-3/04) 45 46 * 9 =100
(7/29-30/04) 53 37 2 8 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 36 3 9 =100
(5/13-14/04) 47 36 3 14 =100
(4/8-9/04) 51 34 3 12 =100
(3/25-26/04) 51 35 2 12 =100
(3/18-19/04) 51 36 3 10 =100
(2/19-20/04) 56 27 5 12 =100
(1/29-30/04) 57 24 5 14 =100
(1/22-23/04) 54 25 8 13 =100
(12/11-12/03) 33 34 16 17 =100
c. Dick Cheney
Current RVs 47 42 1 10 =100
Trend - RVs
(9/2-3/04) 50 40 1 9 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 46 2 9 =100
(7/8-9/04) 46 43 2 9 =100
(2/19-20/04) 44 44 3 9 =100
d. John Edwards
Current RVs 45 37 3 15 =100
Trends - RVs
(9/2-3/04) 46 33 5 16 =100
(7/29-30/04) 52 28 6 14 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 25 8 15 =100
(2/19-20/04) 52 19 11 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 42 27 12 19 =100
(1/22-23/04) 46 23 14 17 =100
(12/11-12/03) 27 25 23 25 =100
4. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the
United States at this time?
BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
Satisfied Dissatisfied DK
Current Total 39 53 8 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 43 49 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 36 58 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 40 54 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) Prisoner abuse
scandal 30 62 8 =100
(4/8-9/04) 36 59 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 43 52 5 =100
(1/8-9/04) 46 47 7 =100
(12/18-19/03) Saddam's capture 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 40 54 6 =100
(4/03) Iraq War 50 41 9 =100
(9/02) 41 55 4 =100
(7/02) 46 46 8 =100
(9/01) Terrorist attacks 57 34 9 =100
(6/01) 43 52 5 =100
(3/01) 47 45 8 =100
(1/01) 55 41 4 =100
(6/00) 47 45 8 =100
(3/00) 56 36 8 =100
(8/99) 56 39 5 =100
(9/98) 54 42 4 =100
(1/97) 38 58 4 =100
(3/96) 28 70 2 =100
(6/95) 25 73 2 =100
(8/94) 24 71 5 =100
(6/92) Recession 14 84 2 =100
(3/91) Gulf War Victory 66 31 3 =100
(9/90) 37 58 5 =100
(9/88) 56 40 4 =100
(11/85) 51 46 3 =100
(12/81) Recession 27 67 6 =100
(7/79) Energy/Economic Crisis 12 84 4 =100
Note: Trends - 4/03, 9/02, 6/00-6/01 and 6/95-8/99 Pew Research Center;
7/79-6/92 Gallup.
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his
job as president?
BASED ON TOTAL ADULTS
Approve Disapprove DK
Current Total 48 44 8 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 52 41 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(5/13-14/04) 42 52 6 =100
(4/8-9/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/25-26/04) 49 45 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/19-20/04) 48 44 8 =100
(2/5-6/04) 48 45 7 =100
(1/29-30/04) 49 44 7 =100
(1/22-23/04) 50 44 6 =100
(1/8-9/04) 54 41 5 =100
(12/18-19/03) 54 38 8 =100
(12/11-12/03) 51 42 7 =100
(11/6-7/03) 52 40 8 =100
(10/30-31/03) 51 39 10 =100
(10/23-24/03) 51 40 9 =100
(10/9-10/03) 51 42 7 =100
(9/25-26/03) 52 40 8 =100
(9/18-19/03) 51 42 7 =100
(9/11-12/03) 52 39 9 =100
(8/21-22/03) 53 36 11 =100
(7/24-25/03) 57 34 9 =100
(7/10-11/03) 55 37 8 =100
(5/29-30/03) 61 28 11 =100
(5/1-2/03) 65 26 9 =100
(4/10-11/03) 71 23 6 =100
(3/27-28/03) 68 26 6 =100
(3/13-14/03) 53 37 10 =100
(2/6-7/03) 61 31 8 =100
(1/23-24/03) 55 38 7 =100
(1/16-17/03) 56 33 11 =100
(11/7-8/02) 60 30 10 =100
(10/24-25/02) 61 29 10 =100
(10/11-12/02) 61 29 10 =100
(9/26-27/02) 65 27 8 =100
(9/12-13/02) 70 23 7 =100
(8/28-29/02) 61 30 9 =100
(6/27-28/02) 70 19 11 =100
(3/21-22/02) 74 16 10 =100
(1/31-2/1/02) 83 12 5 =100
(12/13-14/01) 81 11 8 =100
(10/25-26/01) 85 10 5 =100
(10/11-12/01) 88 8 4 =100
(9/20-21/01) 86 10 4 =100
(9/13-14/01) 82 11 7 =100
(8/25-9/5/01) 51 34 15 =100
(5/10-11/01) 50 31 19 =100
(2/15-16/01) 56 21 23 =100
Note: Full trendline from August 2002 to present; earlier trends selected.
Bush approval figures for 8/25-9/5/01 from Pew Research Center.
6. In general, would you like to see George W. Bush re-elected to another
term as president, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes No DK
Current Total 50 46 4 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 53 43 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 43 53 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 43 52 5 =100
(5/13-14/04) 41 51 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 46 50 4 =100
(2/19-20/04) 43 52 5 =100
(2/5-6/04) 45 50 5 =100
(1/29-30/04) 45 49 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 44 52 4 =100
(1/8-9/04) 48 46 6 =100
(12/18-19/03) 46 46 8 =100
(12/11-12/03) 45 50 5 =100
(11/6-7/03) 44 50 6 =100
(10/30-31/03) 45 46 9 =100
(10/23-24/03) 46 47 7 =100
(10/9-10/03) 44 50 6 =100
(9/25-26/03) 46 47 7 =100
(9/18-19/03) 44 50 6 =100
(8/21-22/03) 44 49 7 =100
(7/24-25/03) 49 43 8 =100
(7/10-11/03) 47 46 7 =100
(5/1-2/03) 51 38 11 =100
(4/10-11/03) 52 38 10 =100
(11/7-8/02) 49 42 9 =100
7. Regardless of which presidential candidate you personally support, who
do you think is more likely to win in November ... George W. Bush (or)
John Kerry?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush Kerry DK
Current Total 60 27 13 =100
Trends
(7/29-30/04) 43 44 13 =100
(7/8-9/04) 47 38 15 =100
8. If you could vote separately for VICE PRESIDENT, would you be more
likely to vote for ... (ROTATE BY FORM) Dick Cheney, the Republican;
or John Edwards, the Democrat?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Cheney Edwards Neither/Other DK
Current Total 44 48 2 6 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 44 45 3 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 36 55 3 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 41 52 2 5 =100
Note: Neither/Other is a volunteered response category.
Questions 9 and 10 were asked in random order; in each question series, the order in which the items were read was rotated with item i always asked last. 9. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following
phrases describes GEORGE W. BUSH. (First,) what about... (Does this
describe Bush or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, describes No, does not DK
a. Has strong leadership qualities
Current Total 62 35 3 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 65 33 2 =100
(7/29-30/04) 60 38 2 =100
(7/8-9/04) 67 31 2 =100
(1/22-23/04) 65 33 2 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 59 33 8 =100
b. Is honest and ethical
Current Total 55 40 5 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 62 33 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 54 40 6 =100
(7/8-9/04) 54 40 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 57 38 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 58 31 11 =100
c. Cares about people like you
Current Total 51 45 4 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 53 43 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 44 51 5 =100
(7/8-9/04) 49 46 5 =100
(1/22-23/04) 48 48 4 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 51 41 8 =100
d. Is personally likeable
Current Total 67 29 4 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 67 29 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 62 34 4 =100
(7/8-9/04) 69 29 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 67 28 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 70 23 7 =100
e. Says what he believes, not just
what people want to hear
Current Total 66 30 4 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 66 29 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 35 7 =100
(7/8-9/04) 62 32 6 =100
(1/22-23/04) 63 32 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 52 37 11 =100
f. Would trust him to make the
right decisions during an
international crisis
Current Total 54 42 4 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 57 40 3 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 49 3 =100
(7/8-9/04) 56 40 4 =100
(1/22-23/04) 56 41 3 =100
g. Shares your values
Current Total 52 44 4 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 54 41 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 48 4 =100
h. Is intelligent and well informed
Current Total 59 37 4 =100
Trends
(1/22-23/04) 59 36 5 =100
(10/31-11/2/00) 64 29 7 =100
i. Is too conservative
Current Total 33 61 6 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 32 61 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 37 56 7 =100
(7/8-9/04) 34 60 6 =100
10. Please tell me whether or not you think each of the following phrases
describes JOHN KERRY. (First,) what about... (Does this describe
Kerry, or not?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Yes, describes No, does not DK
a. Has strong leadership qualities
Current Total 50 40 10 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 47 41 12 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 31 11 =100
(7/8-9/04) 55 27 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 62 17 21 =100
b. Is honest and ethical
Current Total 54 35 11 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 47 39 14 =100
(7/29-30/04) 58 28 14 =100
(7/8-9/04) 53 29 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 58 14 28 =100
c. Cares about people like you
Current Total 55 36 9 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 49 38 13 =100
(7/29-30/04) 57 33 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 52 32 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 52 26 22 =100
d. Is personally likeable
Current Total 59 32 9 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 59 33 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 67 25 8 =100
(7/8-9/04) 60 24 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 67 13 20 =100
e. Says what he believes, not just
what people want to hear
Current Total 45 45 10 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 42 47 11 =100
(7/29-30/04) 49 39 12 =100
(7/8-9/04) 45 38 17 =100
(1/29-30/04) 48 27 25 =100
f. Would trust him to make the
right decisions during an
international crisis
Current Total 46 45 9 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 44 48 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 53 37 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 46 36 18 =100
(1/29-30/04) 52 24 24 =100
g. Shares your values
Current Total 46 45 9 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 42 48 10 =100
(7/29-30/04) 50 41 9 =100
h. Is intelligent and well informed
Current Total 74 18 8 =100
i. Is too liberal
Current Total 42 47 11 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 45 43 12 =100
(7/29-30/04) 40 50 10 =100
(7/8-9/04) 38 46 16 =100
(1/29-30/04) 32 45 23 =100
11. Which ONE of the following issues will be MOST important in
determining your vote for president this year ... (INSERT-READ AND
ROTATE)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Current 9/2-3/04 7/29-30/04
25 Terrorism and homeland security 28 21
21 The economy 21 19
15 The situation in Iraq 11 18
14 Health care, including Medicare 13 15
9 American jobs and foreign 9 9
competition
7 Education 6 6
2 Taxes 3 4
3 (VOL.-DO NOT READ) Other 3 4
4 (DO NOT READ) Don't know 6 4
100 100 100
12. Regardless of which presidential candidate you support, please tell me
if you trust... George W. Bush or John Kerry (ORDER ROTATED) to do a
better job handling each of the following issues. (First,) what
about... (INSERT ITEM-READ AND RANDOMIZE)? (Which do you trust do to
a better job handling this issue ... Bush or Kerry (ORDER ROTATED)?)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush Kerry Equal Neither DK
(VOL) (VOL)
a. The economy
Current Total 46 46 1 3 4 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 49 43 1 2 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 49 1 2 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 47 2 2 6 =100
b. The situation in Iraq
Current Total 54 39 * 3 4 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 55 37 1 2 5 =100
(7/29-30/04) 46 46 1 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 53 38 2 2 5 =100
c. Terrorism and homeland
security
Current Total 58 34 1 3 4 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 60 32 2 2 4 =100
(7/29-30/04) 48 43 2 2 5 =100
(3/18-19/04) 56 35 2 1 6 =100
d. Health care, including
Medicare
Current Total 40 50 1 3 6 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 43 45 2 2 8 =100
(7/29-30/04) 32 55 2 3 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 37 53 1 2 7 =100
e. Education
Current Total 45 46 2 2 5 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 48 42 2 2 6 =100
(7/29-30/04) 40 48 2 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 43 46 2 2 7 =100
f. Taxes
Current Total 47 42 2 4 5 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 52 38 1 2 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 42 48 1 3 6 =100
(3/18-19/04) 45 44 1 3 7 =100
g. American jobs and
foreign competition
Current Total 42 47 1 4 6 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 45 44 1 3 7 =100
(7/29-30/04) 36 53 1 2 8 =100
(3/18-19/04) 39 50 1 3 7 =100
13. All in all, how worried are you that someone in your family might
become a victim of a terrorist attack? Are you ... very worried,
somewhat worried, not too worried, or not at all worried?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Very Somewhat Not too Not at all DK
Current Total 11 27 31 30 1 =100
Trends
(1/8-9/04) 9 26 33 31 1 =100
(8/21-22/03) 18 26 26 28 2 =100
(3/28-4/1/03) 14 34 31 20 1 =100
(1/8-12/03) 11 30 37 21 1 =100
(11/7-8/02) 13 23 34 30 * =100
(10/10-11/02) 16 27 35 21 1 =100
(6/19-23/02) 17 28 36 19 * =100
(1/9-12/02) 12 26 38 24 * =100
(10/31-11/7/01) 13 27 29 19 2 =100
(10/10-14/01) 18 32 29 19 2 =100
(9/21-25/01) 17 36 31 15 1 =100
(8/98) 10 22 38 29 1 =100
Note: Trend results based on total sample. August 1998 trend from Gallup
poll. September 2001 through June 2002 trends from Pew Research
Center. January to March 2003 trends from Pew Research center had
a volunteered response, "Already a victim", included here in the
Don't know category.
14. If John Kerry is elected president in November, do you think this
country would be MORE vulnerable or LESS vulnerable to a terrorist
attack than it would be if George W. Bush is re-elected, or about as
vulnerable with Kerry as with Bush?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Rep Dem Ind
38 More vulnerable 71 7 28
20 Less vulnerable 4 43 15
35 About as vulnerable 22 41 48
7 Don't know 3 9 9
100 100 100 100
Questions 15 and 16 were asked in random order
15. Has what you've seen or heard about George W. Bush's military service
record in the National Guard at the time of the Vietnam War made you
more likely or less likely to vote for him in November, or has it not
had much effect either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
More Less Not much Not aware DK
effect
Current Total 5 18 73 2 2 =100
Republicans 8 6 83 * 3 =100
Democrats 4 32 60 2 2 =100
Independents 4 19 73 2 2 =100
Military households 6 21 70 1 2 =100
Non-military
households 5 16 75 2 2 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 5 17 75 1 2 =100
(7/29-30/04) 5 22 70 2 1 =100
Note: "Haven't heard about/Not aware of" is a volunteered response
category.
16. Has what you've seen or heard about John Kerry's military service
record in the Vietnam War made you more likely or less likely to vote
for him in November, or has it not had much effect either way?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
More Less Not much Not aware DK
effect
Current Total 15 17 64 1 3 =100
Republicans 5 33 58 1 3 =100
Democrats 26 4 67 1 2 =100
Independents 16 12 66 2 4 =100
Military households 16 21 60 1 2 =100
Non-military
households 13 16 66 2 3 =100
Trends
(9/2-3/04) 15 19 62 2 2 =100
(7/29-30/04) 27 15 55 1 2 =100
Note: "Haven't heard about/Not aware of" is a volunteered response
category.
17. Thinking about the controversy over George W. Bush's service in the
National Guard at the time of the Vietnam War ... From what you've
seen, heard, or read, are you inclined to believe that Bush fulfilled
his obligations for military service, or do you have serious doubts
about whether he fulfilled his obligations?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Fulfilled Serious Not aware DK
obligations doubts
Current Total 42 42 5 11 =100
Republicans 72 12 5 11 =100
Democrats 11 76 5 8 =100
Independents 36 45 6 13 =100
Military households 44 39 4 13 =100
Non-military
households 41 44 5 10 =100
Trend
(2/19-20/04) 49 33 10 8 =100
Note: Trend results based on total sample. "Haven't followed/Not aware of
controversy" is a volunteered response category.
18. Now, thinking about the tone of the campaigns run by the major party
candidates this year, which -- if any -- do you think has been TOO
NEGATIVE OR NASTY...(READ)
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Bush-Cheney Kerry-Edwards Both Neither DK
Current Total 25 21 33 15 6 =100
Republicans 4 42 34 15 5 =100
Democrats 52 4 22 16 6 =100
Independents 24 16 42 14 4 =100
Trends
(9/7-8/00) Bush and Gore
campaigns 25 18 17 29 11 =100
(8/24-25/00) Bush and Gore
campaigns 22 18 13 37 10 =100
Questions 19ab and 20ab were asked in random order
19a. Have you personally seen any TV ads for GEORGE W. BUSH in recent
weeks?
19b. Based on the ads you've seen, in general, do you think the Bush ads
are TOO NEGATIVE, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Rep Dem Ind
65 Total saw Bush ads 68 66 65
27 Ads too negative 13 43 33
35 Ads not too negative 52 19 30
3 Don't know if too negative 3 4 2
33 Did not see Bush ads 30 33 34
2 Don't know 2 1 1
100 100 100 100
20a. Have you personally seen any TV ads for JOHN KERRY in recent weeks?
20b. Based on the ads you've seen, in general, do you think the Kerry ads
are TOO NEGATIVE, or not?
BASED ON REGISTERED VOTERS
Total Rep Dem Ind
66 Total saw Kerry ads 70 66 62
28 Ads too negative 43 14 24
35 Ads not too negative 23 50 33
3 Don't know if too negative 4 2 5
32 Did not see Kerry ads 29 32 37
2 Don't know 1 2 1
100 100 100 100
END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank you very much for your cooperation.
Source: Newsweek
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