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EARLY PEEK AT POLL RESULTS
Kerry Spot/NRO ^ | 9/27/04 | jim geraghty

Posted on 09/27/2004 11:45:04 AM PDT by Cableguy

Just talked to a senior Republican in Washington. The USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll should be out shortly - Bush up 53-42 among registered, 52-44 among likely voters.

UPDATE: This source doesn't know about the ABC/Washington Post poll that is supposed to be out later today. Overall thoughts from this GOP source: Most of non-public polls are showing Bush up five or six points. He is telling every Bush supporter who will listen not to get complacent - this lead could shrink quickly, although he is reassured that once you throw out most of the odd outliers (Bush up a lot, or Kerry up a bit) the lead has been pretty steady since the convention. Still, he adds, Bush campaign knows "to campaign like they're five points down."


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cnn; gallup; kewl; poll; polls; usatoday
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To: Cableguy

Kerry will do about as well as McGovern, 1972.


41 posted on 09/27/2004 11:56:53 AM PDT by jdm
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To: Cableguy

Hopefully the first debate will pretty much seal the deal. Of course be wary of the Rat vote fraud, that's my biggest concern.


42 posted on 09/27/2004 11:57:13 AM PDT by dfwgator (It's sad that the news media treats Michael Jackson better than our military.)
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To: Capt. Jake

I'm more worried about Kerry and Chairman Carter rigging Florida.


43 posted on 09/27/2004 11:57:18 AM PDT by Rutles4Ever
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To: Cableguy

Almost every other poll I've seen had a bigger Bush lead among "likely" voters than "registered" voters. This one has it the other way around.


44 posted on 09/27/2004 11:57:50 AM PDT by creepycrawly
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To: flashbunny

Don't be too hard on COURGAGE. They serve a pupose. Nobody else likes to post the bad news here on FR. And to know the bad is as important as knowing the good. COURAGE is kinda like maggot of FreeRepublic. In nature, as nasty as they are, perform a very important function.


45 posted on 09/27/2004 11:58:06 AM PDT by mlbford2 ("What self respecting man wears Spandex?" -- Zell Miller)
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To: PMCarey
Don't worry -- JFK is just waiting for Thursday when he'll finally have the opportunity to introduce himself to the American People.
46 posted on 09/27/2004 11:58:09 AM PDT by workerbee
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To: Cableguy

Not much erosion, eh? I'll take it.


47 posted on 09/27/2004 11:59:29 AM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds, a pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: dfwgator

Is anyone out there as nervous as I am about the debates ?

Hate to be a worrier...


48 posted on 09/27/2004 11:59:33 AM PDT by somerville
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To: Rutles4Ever

If the Bush lead is larger for "registered" than for "likely" then there are Bush folks out there who've decided not to bother voting. Don't get complacement, people. It doesn't count unless you actually vote and we've got dead people and furners to outvote.


49 posted on 09/27/2004 11:59:34 AM PDT by Paine in the Neck
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To: Cableguy

We Republicans know that every vote counts. Have YOU registered all your relatives who are Republican-minded? If they're not able to go to the polls, have you gotten them an absentee ballot? (Contact your local Pubbie HQ for info.)


50 posted on 09/27/2004 11:59:50 AM PDT by Ciexyz ("FR, best viewed with a budgie on hand")
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To: Rutles4Ever

exactly...the last election Carter "approved" turned out just opposite of what all the pre-election polling indicated....the thought of all the foolery that may go on in FL and other battleground states is very troubling


51 posted on 09/27/2004 11:59:53 AM PDT by Kylie_04
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To: AppyPappy

*DING*

The alarm bells regarding dead/ineligible voters asking for absentee ballots are already ringing.


52 posted on 09/27/2004 11:59:58 AM PDT by jambooti
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To: creepycrawly

All LV modeling does is takes away some people from RV, and weights it (multiplies it by a factor) based on certain data. Since more Republicans were in the sample, LV should have a smaller margin. Simple math, if you go through the mechanics.


53 posted on 09/27/2004 12:00:31 PM PDT by Cableguy
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To: Phantom Lord

38 is about right, but RP took from 17 to 19%.


54 posted on 09/27/2004 12:00:35 PM PDT by Archie Bunker on steroids (.)
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To: somerville

Worrying is a useless and counterproductive emotion.


55 posted on 09/27/2004 12:01:13 PM PDT by ambrose (http://www.swiftvets.com)
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To: Rutles4Ever

Dear Rutles4Ever,

"Sure this isn't backwards - usually the bigger spread is among likely voters... "

I think it's Dales who has theorized this may be a result of an increase in voting preference for Mr. Bush by two groups that have low turn-out records: younger voters, and blacks.

I've seen a few polls to suggest that perhaps instead of getting around 10% of blacks, Mr. Bush may be getting more like 25%, give or take. I've also seen a few that suggest that Mr. Kerry's get out the youth vote drive may be a little counterproductive, as these polls have shown younger folks going toward Bush.

It's tough to say at this point that these two phenomena are real, but here's hoping.


sitetest


56 posted on 09/27/2004 12:01:13 PM PDT by sitetest (Cause I ain't got nobody......I'm just a gigolo!)
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To: Cableguy

This poll is meaningless. What about the battleground states?


57 posted on 09/27/2004 12:01:30 PM PDT by zarf
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To: Spok
When was the last time a candidate came from behind on account of the debates? I'm hard pressed to think of a single instance except for the 1960 Kennedy/Nixon debates. And I'm not entirely convinced that Kennedy won because of those debates. While some candidates have stumbled in the debates (Ford, Dukakis), it wasn't a deciding factor in the election IMHO. Ford and Dukakis were going down in defeat no matter how well they debated.
58 posted on 09/27/2004 12:02:05 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (Hurricane Season is Over)
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To: Rutles4Ever

Got a link? Most of the DU threads I've looked at are about a river in Egypt. (That's denial for those who are humour impared.)


59 posted on 09/27/2004 12:02:25 PM PDT by don'tbedenied
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To: Paine in the Neck

That's why I'm questioning the numbers. If this is true, this is a shift, because I don't recall any "likely-voters" polling data that shrunk the spread for the President before this.


60 posted on 09/27/2004 12:03:20 PM PDT by Rutles4Ever
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