Posted on 09/27/2004 11:45:04 AM PDT by Cableguy
Just talked to a senior Republican in Washington. The USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll should be out shortly - Bush up 53-42 among registered, 52-44 among likely voters.
UPDATE: This source doesn't know about the ABC/Washington Post poll that is supposed to be out later today. Overall thoughts from this GOP source: Most of non-public polls are showing Bush up five or six points. He is telling every Bush supporter who will listen not to get complacent - this lead could shrink quickly, although he is reassured that once you throw out most of the odd outliers (Bush up a lot, or Kerry up a bit) the lead has been pretty steady since the convention. Still, he adds, Bush campaign knows "to campaign like they're five points down."
Kerry will do about as well as McGovern, 1972.
Hopefully the first debate will pretty much seal the deal. Of course be wary of the Rat vote fraud, that's my biggest concern.
I'm more worried about Kerry and Chairman Carter rigging Florida.
Almost every other poll I've seen had a bigger Bush lead among "likely" voters than "registered" voters. This one has it the other way around.
Don't be too hard on COURGAGE. They serve a pupose. Nobody else likes to post the bad news here on FR. And to know the bad is as important as knowing the good. COURAGE is kinda like maggot of FreeRepublic. In nature, as nasty as they are, perform a very important function.
Not much erosion, eh? I'll take it.
Is anyone out there as nervous as I am about the debates ?
Hate to be a worrier...
If the Bush lead is larger for "registered" than for "likely" then there are Bush folks out there who've decided not to bother voting. Don't get complacement, people. It doesn't count unless you actually vote and we've got dead people and furners to outvote.
We Republicans know that every vote counts. Have YOU registered all your relatives who are Republican-minded? If they're not able to go to the polls, have you gotten them an absentee ballot? (Contact your local Pubbie HQ for info.)
exactly...the last election Carter "approved" turned out just opposite of what all the pre-election polling indicated....the thought of all the foolery that may go on in FL and other battleground states is very troubling
*DING*
The alarm bells regarding dead/ineligible voters asking for absentee ballots are already ringing.
All LV modeling does is takes away some people from RV, and weights it (multiplies it by a factor) based on certain data. Since more Republicans were in the sample, LV should have a smaller margin. Simple math, if you go through the mechanics.
38 is about right, but RP took from 17 to 19%.
Worrying is a useless and counterproductive emotion.
Dear Rutles4Ever,
"Sure this isn't backwards - usually the bigger spread is among likely voters... "
I think it's Dales who has theorized this may be a result of an increase in voting preference for Mr. Bush by two groups that have low turn-out records: younger voters, and blacks.
I've seen a few polls to suggest that perhaps instead of getting around 10% of blacks, Mr. Bush may be getting more like 25%, give or take. I've also seen a few that suggest that Mr. Kerry's get out the youth vote drive may be a little counterproductive, as these polls have shown younger folks going toward Bush.
It's tough to say at this point that these two phenomena are real, but here's hoping.
sitetest
This poll is meaningless. What about the battleground states?
Got a link? Most of the DU threads I've looked at are about a river in Egypt. (That's denial for those who are humour impared.)
That's why I'm questioning the numbers. If this is true, this is a shift, because I don't recall any "likely-voters" polling data that shrunk the spread for the President before this.
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