Posted on 09/27/2004 11:45:04 AM PDT by Cableguy
Just talked to a senior Republican in Washington. The USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll should be out shortly - Bush up 53-42 among registered, 52-44 among likely voters.
UPDATE: This source doesn't know about the ABC/Washington Post poll that is supposed to be out later today. Overall thoughts from this GOP source: Most of non-public polls are showing Bush up five or six points. He is telling every Bush supporter who will listen not to get complacent - this lead could shrink quickly, although he is reassured that once you throw out most of the odd outliers (Bush up a lot, or Kerry up a bit) the lead has been pretty steady since the convention. Still, he adds, Bush campaign knows "to campaign like they're five points down."
In what poll are they speaking of the lead shrinking, according to the poll of registered voters Bush's lead increases.
These are the same guys who had Michael Moore write on the RNC.
We need to factor 3% goes back due to vote fraud.
"Irrelevant. How is he doing among fraudulent voters?"
Thats a gret point! Cahhhhtuhhh is already saying Florida wont be fair...he knows they're gonna lose so he's creating a diversion before the fact. What a bunch of losers they are.
"Will someone please post this over at DU so I can watch the convulsions?"
Wish I could but I've been kicked out twice over there for being a "disruptor" :) I said "WHO?? ME??
They had the nerve to write Bush slipping in polls
I bet jk/rather/dnc would like to be slipping this much
w2004
ciao
Here is the question. If Bush beats Kerry by numbers like these...can we finally put to rest "selected, not elected"...
"Is anyone out there as nervous as I am about the debates ? Hate to be a worrier..."
Are you kidding me? It's interesting that your worrried with the way the polls are going, but then I see you're a very new member to Free Republic.
Definitely unusual, but I saw it on another poll recently and thought the same. I can't remember which poll it was but I just brushed it off as they must have done something really funny with the weighting.
It's shored up now. I think unless something dramatic happens, the final spread will be close to this: W 51 to K 44, or W 52 to K 45.
>>Does this poll include the Holsteins Kerry talked to in Wisconsin?
Did Kerry step in any fresh cow-patties like he did in Ohio in the hours after Bush's acceptance speech?
I wonder if John cleaned those shoes himself, or did he give them to his man-servant?
I don't think that Gallup would blow their reputation and their spot as the preeminent pollster just to hurt President Bush and Republicans. Other pollsters, :cough, cough: ARG, Zogsauce :cough, cough: do it because they won't suffer nearly as much when they're wrong. If Gallup blows it big time then there is a chance they will not be given nearly as much credence, and thus business, in the next election cycle.
>>If the Bush lead is larger for "registered" than for "likely" then there are Bush folks out there who've decided not to bother voting.
Doesn't gallup decide who is "LIKELY" to vote based on whether
or not they voted in the last election? If so, that could mean that a group of voters are FIRED UP to vote this time where they were not so enthused earlier...
With the Marriage Amendment on the ballot in a dozen states,
and with Bush's supporters VERY STRONGLY backing him,
and with Kerry's supporters only WEAKLY backing him, this could be a flaw in Gallup's system.
Yes. Kerry is like a chameleon who will change positions and say anything to get elected.
It's not easy to hit a moving target and I doubt most of the TV audience will be educated enough about his past positions to see what a phoney he is.
"And I'm not entirely convinced that Kennedy won because of those debates. "
Kennedy won because Daley was mayor of Chicago!! :-)
IMHO, the influence of debates is over-rated in elections in general. Both candidates have told us what they already want us to know.
If they havent, they are incompetent.
Some rain on the parade. If this universe of registered voters does not include the recent surge of Dem registrations all over the country, then the sampling universe is invalid and we may not have much of a lead.
The registration deadline is 30 days in most states. They are outregistering us and they have learned from us in 2002 and now know the techniques for getting those new registrants to the polls. The ONLY way to defeat this is a major surge this final week of GOP registrations.
Please call the campaign and volunteer to help in battleground states with the voter registration effort.
I am a born worrier. I am very very happy with the polls, but I live on the Upper West Side of Manhattan, so they're aren't many people I can commiserate with in person. Also remember there is the Kerry house organ The New York Times.
I was reaching out for reassurance, because I am drowning in a sea of Democrats !
"I'm going to have to do some research to find out when the last time a Presidential candidate secured less than 40% of the vote. Kerry will not score even 40% -- that's my prediction, anyway."
Here are the numbers you wanted:
Presidential 'Popular' Vote Results, candidate with under 40%: Winners: =================== 39.82% Lincoln 30.92% Adams(6) Losers: =================== 39.65% Hoover 38.47% Goldwater 37.59% Parker 37.52% McGovern 37.45% Bush(41) 37.42% Clay 36.63% Harrison(9) 36.55% Landon 34.15% Cox 33.11% Freemont 28.82% Davis 27.40% Roosevelt(26) 18.10% Breckenridge
dvwjr
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