Posted on 09/24/2004 7:28:05 AM PDT by ironmike4242
bump
The momentum line was predictable, because some of the good polls for Bush clearly oversampled Republicans, so once more polls with better sampling came out, the Bush numbers came down.
Some of us predicted a couple weeks ago that later polls, showing the actual Bush lead of 5-7 points, would be portrayed as a Kerry surge. That's now being stated by the mainstream media, but saying it doesn't make it so.
The race is pretty much frozen at this time, with Bush up by a few points, until the debates.
But Kerry has retaken the lead in Pennsylvania, and that is a big swing. Picking Florida, or a combination of Ohio/any small blue state, puts him in office.
Yeah. A big 'MO' heading straight downhill!
The answer is "follow the money".
Momentum can be described as being on offense. You can be on offense and still be behind.
When you have momentum, you start putting money in states that you still show behind in. When you don't have momentum you keep money in states you absolutely must defend. kerry pulled a bunch of money out of swing states and challenger states this week. It stands to reason that he feels like he needs to turn around before he can start attacking again.
And in this particular situation, strategy is spelled P-A-N-I-C.
Folks
All well and good, but still, fight like we are 25 points behind. That's the only way to win.
Don't get cocky.............yet.
People should learn to trust the polls about as much as they trust Dan Rather and CBS. Polls are just about as honest as Gunga Dan.
The new Gallup, Marist, and CBS all say Bush is whipping ass in the national front with a JA of 54% in one. State polls all have Bush increasing his lead. Fight now in blue Gore 2000 states. Bush shores up most of his states.
Tad Devine is a talking points wind up toy.(little monkey with clapping symbols comes to mind--cute at first but quickly becomes annoying).
Bush can still win witout Florida if he takes maine and new hampshire and new mexico. Bush is clearly ahead.
I believe you are right. The RATs are scared but want to keep the base from getting demoralized and want to keep donations flowing.
Sarasotarepublican posted a blurb yesterday from la.com about a Hollywood party for Kerry where Oracle's Larry Ellison let slip that he had just spoken to Joe Lockhart and that the RAT internal polls showed W up by seven.
Here is the link for the blurb if interested:
http://www.la.com/blog/weblog.php?id=P560
Polls show Tennessee (algores home state)voters crushing Kerry flatter than fresh cow-pucky. If he has any "mo" it sure as hell ain't 'round here!
Tad gets paid to lie just like Joe, Sandy, Mary beth, James (the snake), Paul (forehead) yada, yada.
That's a great point, and similar to one I made with another poster here after the big ARG polling dump. If Kerry was supposedly only down 2 point in Arkansas (like ARG said) then why did he pull all of his ad money out of the state? Obviously because the poll was wrong and his staff feels that he has no chance there. "Follow the money" is an outstanding point, and IMO a better way to judge the race than just poll numbers.
T
Kerry has not retaken the lead in PA and Bush is virtually winning every swing state except in MI. Bush is also buying ad time in Kerry states of ME, and OR.
2) He has re-taken PA in two, behind in a third (though narrowly);
3) PA and MI are coming, apparently, at the expense of everything else. He's trailing consistently in IA, WI, NM, and it is dead even in OR, ME, and MN. He's lost OH, and one ME elector, for sure.
So really, PA, MI, ME, and NJ are all gravy. The only question is whether Bush gets 300, 330, or 350 EVs, and how many senate seats the Dems are willing to allow Kerry to take with him.
There was an article in the Detroit Free Press today (they don't allow excerpting) about the battle for Ohio. The most laughable line was how Ohio was "crucial" to Bush's re-election efforts. Uh, no, it's crucial to Kerry's chances. Kerry can't win unless he peels off Florida or Ohio. Bush can win without one of them. That's because the battleground states are almost all blue turf, except for Florida and Ohio.
My husband's family in West Texas are all Bush haters. The Dallas/Ft. Worth area where I am is mostly Republican.
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