Bush can still win witout Florida if he takes maine and new hampshire and new mexico. Bush is clearly ahead.
I surely hope that is not needed but it would be rather exquisite to lose FLA and still win the WH. I think FLA is Bush by 8-10%. What military family wants Kerry who is helping the enemy and hoping they win.
It sure would be easier WITH Florida but it is possible for the Repubs to win without it. In addition to the states you mentioned though, GWB probably also has to take IA, and hold on to WI. Not to mention NH, WV, NV. All the signs are looking pretty good for now though. I hope the good poll news ramps up Republicans more, and dispirits the Dems. :)