[Numbers Guy]

The momentum line was predictable, because some of the good polls for Bush clearly oversampled Republicans, so once more polls with better sampling came out, the Bush numbers came down.

Some of us predicted a couple weeks ago that later polls, showing the actual Bush lead of 5-7 points, would be portrayed as a Kerry surge. That's now being stated by the mainstream media, but saying it doesn't make it so.

The race is pretty much frozen at this time, with Bush up by a few points, until the debates.

[Tarpon]

Saying it doesn't make it so ... you got that right.

One of the best indicators is Kerry himself. He is pulling ads from several states, that have switched to Bush leading, to save money. Backing and filling is not the kind of momentum you think of when you are winning. Contrast that to Bush who is now campaigning in states where you would think a dim would be the shooin candidate.

The number of contested states is now under 15, down from 24 or so.

[John Lenin]

Kerry is toast. He will do worse than Dukakis.

[creepycrawly]

The race is pretty much frozen at this time, with Bush up by a few points, until the debates.

Kerry may pick up a couple of points in the weeks leading up to the debates, but I think you've got it about right.