Gallup Poll: Bush 54%, Kerry 40%, Nader 3%

AP/Gallup ^ | 9/17/04

[ambrose]

-snip-

A Gallup poll being released Friday has Bush up 54-40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader (news - web sites) at 3 percent.

-snip-

[crazyhorse691]

Neither side will release their internal polls, but, you can tell lots by what a campaign is doing on how they are doing. JFK visits traditional stronghavens, speaks negatively to soldiers, lets his wife out of her cage, sets new records on flip-flops, increasingly thinskinned, etc. etc. etc. JFK lead is either double digits and he can blow off the commoner or he is double digits behind which means he has to tread water, forever.

[Soul Seeker]

Pew interviewed two different groups, changed questions, interviewed a segment of non-registered voters, over an extended time period...

The poll they conducted was trash.

I expect better. If they are going to stack a poll, why make it so obvious?

[CPT Clay]

Beslan reinforced in our minds that we are in a war on jihadists.

Bush is the best man for the job.

[Stentor]

let's not get too excited. pride goeth before the fall. Imagine the severe depression one would get after being convinced bush would win only to see kerry win during the moment of truth.

Why are almost all of you new guys so defeatist and annoying. Could it be because you like goat meat. If you really belong here, get a spine and a grip.

[ambrose]

What a ridiculous poll, as are the ones showing the race a dead-heat. It's amazing that the science of polling has made so little progress in all these decades. In statistics we call data such as the Gallup one an "outlier"--to be discarded (along with the Pew "dead-even" nonsense today). The true race averages +5.75 points for bush

Wild poll swings sell papers.

[teletech]

yooooooooooooooo hooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He told me to tell you he is hiding under the bed and he isn't coming out for ANYONE!

[comebacknewt]

The one thing that concerns me is that Pew claims that only in the last couple of days has the lead disappeared. It makes no sense at all to me that this would be the case, but there is at least a slight chance that they have caught a trend that others have missed (and Harris supports).

The good news is that, so far, Pew is the ONLY poll that first showed a bounce and then showed it disappear. Gallup strongly counters that, so now I guess I'll have to wait until next week to see what the other polls show.

Hopefully, a consensus will emerge that supports Gallup's findings.

[atomicpossum]

[Tennessean4Bush]

Obviously, Gallup predicts huge Rep turnout

Gallup does not weight samples according to party affiliation and expected turnout weights by party as Zogby and Rasmussen do. Gallup has an extensive likely voter q&a and formula that produces their results.

[WashingtonSource]

It's buried in the article, paragraph 21!

[mlbford2]

~~Isn't Harris "adults?"~~

Harris sends me emails to respond to for polling. My dog could vote (If he only knew my password).

[thirteen stars]

Listen, airmac.

I don't know where you come from but nobody, and i mean nobody (aside from moderators) tells me what i can and cannot post.

Bush does not have the election won. It is not 100 percent certain he will win. To suggest that i am a defeatist because i am not 100 percent certain bush will win only makes you come off looking like a complete piece of donkey twaddle.

[ken5050]

Yes!!..most excellent point...and, if I may expand upon your thesis, not in a direct way, like it's worth American lives to protect Russian kids, but rather ( oops, sorry LOL)..subliminally..the idea that they want to kill us, we have to kill them first, and it's beter to do it over THERE, than here..

[ambrose]

The one thing that concerns me is that Pew claims that only in the last couple of days has the lead disappeared. It makes no sense at all to me that this would be the case, but there is at least a slight chance that they have caught a trend that others have missed (and Harris supports).

I read on Dales' blog that the first phase of Pew (W up 54 to 38) had 5% more Republicans than Democrats. The second phase had 9% more Democrats than Republicans (46 to 46 tie).

[LachlanMinnesota]

"The info is way down in the artcle...

[ex-Texan]

Misleading Title Notice:

The title of this news report is actually "Bush and Kerry Disagree Over Iraq." Gallup Poll on its web site has not posted polling results nationally. Their latests polling reflects some juggling of Bush and Kerry results for the mid-west. They suggest, however, that Bush is leading in prospective electoral college vote if the election was held on September 16th (278 to 260). No poll results have been published by Gallup for September 18th.

I do not believe that the AP staff understands election polling. In fact, the latest Gallup-USA Today poll shows Busn and Kerry in a dead heat.

[hershey]

The problem with O'Reilly is that you never know who's going to show up -- the left winger who trashes the Swifties without giving them a fair hearing or the blowhard to says he's hard on everybody. And isn't it interesting that Kerry's been careful to avoid questions. Imus doesn't count.

[Stentor]

Listen, airmac.

I'm not going to tell you what to post Ms. troll. You go on about your wet behind the ears pinheaded business.

[Mo1]

Bush 54%, Kerry 40%, Nader 3%

Since Nadar's polls haven't changed

Looks like we have visions of '84 and what can now be called Bush Democrats