Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
Maybe Ivan has a hot date with Jeanne?
Looks like it!
If Ivan does make this turn, it will dump a lot of rain in that vicinity. There must be high pressure or something that it will run into. I'm due west of DC and we are supposed to get about 3 inches of rain in the next 36 hours.
overcast, humid but no rainfall, no wind, deadly still here in Central Va (Greene County) at the moment. i hear the tree frogs chirping.
"Clothing is wonderful, but let them go naked for a while, at least the kids," said Heinz Kerry, the wife of Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry.
This woman is out to lunch!
ROFL... i saw that.
It's been very still in Cville today, too, although I noticed on the way home that a small breeze has started. Heavy rain is forecasted here starting tonight through Saturday.
I'm betting it's pretty bad from Fort Morgan to Orange Beach to Perdido to Santa Rosa.
Outer Fort Morgan is just a spit tween the bay and gulf...as you know.
My kinfolks in Fairhope, Foley and Point Clear are good....just trees down and power problems.
another freeper said Ft Walton beach was fine....I assume south Walton is probably ok too but maybe some window and minor structural stuff and of course....beach erosion.
some of those dunes at Blue Mt beach and further east near Seacrest are damned high.
So, what happens Monday-Tuesday?
I have not heard any news today. Were there many deaths associated with Ivan?
on a side note....I was going to go on Dale Peterson's realty site and show you where we rented in July just a few blocks east of Luna del Mar and his site is down.
I've found them over the past few years to be great to deal with at the office right there on 30-A near Luna del Mar.
I wonder how Chip the Beach Guy is faring.....we always rent chairs and umbrellas from him (the gold and blue ones) and this past year he never came by to collect....when I got back to Nashville I called him and he admonished me not to worry...just pay him next summer....gotta love that.
You know, I spent a lot of time in the tropics from 80-96 but now living in hill and hollow country, I again have an appreciation for the beach again like when I was a kid.
We have a mountain home in NC(courtesy of dad, rip) but frankly I don't see how anyone can afford a beachfront home on 30-A anymore.....it runs about 20K per linear foot for the lot and then the building costs....hell, those cute but smallish one bedroom condos at Rosemary beach several blocks from the actual beach go for 500-750K...the big nice ones are several million. Lots of Nashville moneyed folk doing the Rosemary thang...it's a bit of a status thingie around here.
I wonder who is building that flying saucer looking huge home just west of Rosemary?...I'm sure you've seen it.
Oh well....I really like it there...music on the lawn at Seaside, the food and the beaches....it's great.
How does anyone pay off their mortgage down there with rentals like in the old days?...I guess a lot of folks don't have mortgages.
how odd that down turn forcast.
selfishly as a car wash owner here in Music City, I was quite pleased to see forecast for clear skies this weekend...daytime rain costs me around 2-300 bucks per hour on the weekend.....it's 75% of the weekly gross
lord that it would only rain on mondays or wednesdays...lol
raining hard now with big gusts to around 40 I hear....supposed to sort of keep this up till Friday nite late
No tree frogs, just crickets - but everything else you say is identical here on the Eastern Shore (Accomack county)
I don't think we want to know...................
Thank goodness this bad boy is turning south! Keep your powder dry! Bad news in Atlanta tonight - tornado, rain, etc. Bless those in its path.
Something tells me with all this water and all these stroms if you are Southeast (Florida) I would really conceder moving a little farther North. Like in the mountains. God Bless to you all.
Eastern shore! you get them all there, don't you, my friend. Lovely area.
I've got a place on Ft Morgan and am assuming it has been totaled but haven't been able to find any reports other than Drudge's posting of New Orleans TV news videos which show flooding and massive destruction of beach condos. Does anyone have any knowledge of how Fort Morgan and its condos survived Ivan?
mountains reporting in here. flooding = bad news. i always keep an eye out.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.