Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
okay, went and mowed the back yard to get some nerves taken care of. (small yard :)) PNJ has new pics up in their gallery....some I recognize, but still not from my area. and yes, it is hard to watch this and be so far away, not knowing what's going on. just a stupid question, but how long should I wait till calling the rental management? I know they have planty to worry about, but this is a first time for me. off to do the smaller front yard!
1. MSNBC News reporter Kerry Sanders just reported from the Dome House on Pensacola Beach (not Navarre). He was speaking with the homeowner (they rode it out together) and reported sand everyhwere, some houses destroyed, others damaged. "War Zone" was term homeowner used. It didn't sound good. I think the individual who used "gone" as term was probably an exaggeration but it sounds safe to expect some major property damage. No photos or current footage in the report.
2. Just talked to my parents who live on Sounside, they live about 1 1/2 in from 191A (DuBose rd) and are on the North side of the road so dont know how the beachside houses are doing but they do not have water in the house at this time, and think there is one tree down in the yard, but thankfully not on the house. Still have the roof. They lost power before noon yesterday.
3. I just spoke with a friend that lives on Laurel road near the elementary school, he didn't evacuate. They had over 3 feet of water in their home and the whole neighborhood was underwater. The water has gone down some, sounds like any development south of 98 was underwater last night/morning. He said the wind damage was minimal...just flooding. God Bless all of them!
4. My family in Pace (Santa Villa) are ok - no major damage for them but said it was the worst hurricane they've ever seen. They are without electricity and water.
5. Talked to my cousin this morning. He lives on White Road close to East Spencer Field Road. He reported that while the damage was significant to Trees there was no damage to any houses that he could see outside of blown Shingles and no flooding . Everything on the corner of White Road and East Spencer Field road appears to be OK. Lost Power.
6. I am a resident of GB proper but I cannot reach anyone there, however I have family in P'cola that I have been in contact with. Three of the 4 are in the Cordova Park, airport, Spainish Trail area.
My sister off Spainish Trail has two trees that fell and penetrated her house, she tells me there are no trees standing in her neighborhood. My mom in Cordova park has roof damage and there is debris everywhere.
My mother-in-law in West Pensacola had an oak tree crash through the roof of her house, it also smashed my sister-in laws car.
My other sister had contact with a GB proper resident who did not evacuate and is a block north of Tall Pine Trail. He was getting water in his home as of about midnight.
7. The water in my parents house in Gulf Breeze (near Oriole Beach Elementary) came up to their waists, furniture and everything else was floating around in the house. By now the water has subsided to ankle deep and they have been able to go outside and take a look around. Their 2 cars floated into the yard, all kinds of furniture and debris floating in the yard and the water is still up to the front deck (about 1 foot). That's the last I got from my parents at about 8:00am.
8. Ok, the best I can offer is bad news from Warrington. I am currently away for school in Tallahassee and have been in contact with my parents. We live on the water and have experienced catastrophic flooding. I would estimate waters 15 feet above normal, covering our SUV and Truck and eventually pouring through the house. (Funny image) my parents and dog are literally floating around the house on their bed. In short, other than the brick structure of the house, we have lost everything. I am afraid to report that this is most likely the worst storm Pensacola has faced in the modern era. I can only hope that those further inland are doing better.
9. I have heard fro family off of Lilliah Hwy and 70th ave and 58th ave. Lots of trees downs. No flooding yet. Parents lost large shed and tree on cars. This was the news as of 6:00 AM on Thursday 9/16/04. If I hear more news as the family gets out at sunrise I will post.
10. I just reached my family located near Lilian Hwy. and 98 and they are safe but worn. They just went outside ....lost a large tree in backyard, entire stockade fence, roof damage but okay. No major flooding at this time. Lots of trees down.
11. I just spoke with family who rode it out on Dogtrack Road. They are fine but said there are sheds down everywhere. There are tons of trees down and on a lot of cars and homes. Not much water damage as of now but are still getting tropical storm winds and will be for several hours. God Bless everyone effected. Our prayers are with you.
12. My sister-in-law owns the Perdido Bay KOA in Lillian and lives down at the water side of the bay. She is up at the store but the house has no roof or windows. If you cross over the Perdio bridge and look down to the south, you probably have seen that big white house sitting there. I am trying to find information on Chandelle subdivision. If anyone can help me, I'd apreciate it.
13. Just talked to a resident on Electra Lane - no flooding, reports of fence down, chimney down, soffit damage.
14. Just talked to Mom--She did not evacuate but did go to a friend's house that is larger and has basement. We live in North Hill--Corner of Lee and Lloyd. She said all the windows in front are gone, skylights all came in, fence ripped away, but eveyone is OK. Has not seen our house yet as curfew still in effect until 8:00. Anyone heard about Pensacola Beach--any chance that houses 2 streets back from the gulf are still standing?
I have always thought the west end was Santa Rosa and the eastern or Fort Walton end was Okaloosa.
There may be a tiny split or two along the way.
No. *whines* I haven't talked to him since Tues morning.
Also, I heard there were tornado warnings in Lee County. Is there any news about that?
You've got FR mail, too!!!
Isn't the Cayman Islands still a British Colony? Where are the Brits?
Okaloosa/ Santa Rosa info...thanks for clearing that up. I must have lived on Okaloosa. We used to go over that bridge right by the Gulfarium to and from school everyday on the school bus. Do you know which one I mean?
So sorry about your loses. So very sorry.
But THANK YOU for your reports!!
This is the best info I have yet. I cannot contact anyone in Milton/Pace yet and niether can my family. They evacuated to Alabama and are waiting for news so that they can return home. If you hear of anything regarding teh Chumukla Hwy up to Woodbine and the 5 way intersection or near the high school I'd be appreciative. That's all higher ground, if there is such a thing in Santa Rosa county, so damage should be minimal.
Again, many thanks for the thorough report.
The picture are indeed horrible!
Ouch -
Just wanted to check in with you.
The island names are the names of the counties in which they lie.
Will be praying for you. I will ask my dad if he knows your aunt and uncle.
My dad told me he got up on his mobile home roof with a ladder and the wind blew the ladder down. He had to jump 6-8 ft. off the house and he's 70. Pray he won't do anything else to hurt himself!
Gotta go. Everybody take care.
onyx, please check in whenever possible. We are worried about your daughter. Were you able to get the kids home with you to MS. Just in time for Ivan? It never rains but it pours--in this case, not a cliche!
I heard Trent Lott speaking from his home in Jackson, MS. He said they were spared the brunt of the storm.
My grandkids in Pensacola rode out Ivan in substantial buildings where they are employed--one in the back area of the Winn-Dixie; the other in the nursing home, with all the patients, many employees, and employees' families!
Pensacola looks like Punta Gorda did two weeks ago.
They are going to need lots of assistance.
yes...I drove by there in July on my way to Seagrove.
precisely....thanks for clearing that up
Thanks for that very comprehensive report.
Sounds like Pensacola and Gulf Shores are devastated.
Hope they get the phones back up soon so everyone worried about relatives can get through.
I think B'ham will do ok. WSFA Tv weatherman Rich Thomas said max gusts in B'ham will be 50MPH. I still have power in Tallassee (knocking on wood!).
Numerous doppler radar tornado events. I had one over me at 5:00AM. A funnel cloud (not reaching ground) WAS spotted in Auburn/Opelika this morning about 10:00.
Lots of power outages throughout state. I have had 5-6 inches rain so far. Highest wind was 72MPH for me at 5:00AM. Since then, in the 30's.
OMG, as I had imagined, sounds as if the west side got slammed pretty hard. Thank you so much for this post. I'm still trying to find out about our particular area, but have not heard/seen a whole lot. I have a feeling we are going to be screwed, we have hurricane insurance, but not flood, don't ask why I haven't a clue! If you find anything else, pls let me know. And thank you Eagle Eye for concerns, I'm not looking forward to the coming weeks/months, since hubby is about to go out on a 6 month cruise, have no idea what I need/should do about this.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.