Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
If you see anything on the areas of NAS, HWY 98 or Gulf Beach HWY, could you pls pass it along to me? This is the first time we have rented out a house, and I'm really worried since I have not heard from the rental management. I'm worried about damage, but would also like to know about our neighbors if possible. Thanks so much.
40 miles west? Not hardly! The News Journal knows better! Just go to yahoo maps. You can also see that there are really no alternates to the I-10 bridge.
I don't know. I hadn't heard that? Did you har that somewhere?
That is why I want to hear from you, the moment you have confirmation that your daughter has departed the island.
There may be legal issues involved, as you already know.
Oh no, not the pecan trees. I mourn with you for those pies.
Thx for the B'ham update. Shouldn't be too bad for those folks after all.
There's a curfew in Escambia county so no one should be out and about.
My barn is far from secure - everytime we get the least bit of wind I swear another shet of the metal roof peel back!!!
We've only lived in the country for less than 2 years. I grew up in NYC, and then spent 21 years in Delaware. I always envied folks that grew up in the country, and that's why we decided to give our daughter that opportunity and get out of city living.
In all the summers (1973-1982) I spent on the west coast of Florida with my grandparents, never once did we get a hurricane. strange. I've dealt with more living in Delaware and now Virginia, then ever in Florida!!!
I'm looking & listening for Gulf Breeze info but none so far. I'm not familiar with any of these city names but I'm trying not to miss it.
Good to know that.
I am already worried that Delta will not refund my money.
That is sad. Wasn't Destin Harbor and Destin wrecked in Opal. Dad said the island was split in half at one point.
Question? Is Santa Rosa Island different than Okaloosa?
Have you heard from you hubby today???
Thursday, September 16, 2004
Brownsville: Looting and serious flooding reported
Officials have reported looting in the Brownsville area. Portions of Bayfront Parkway, a major artery to the beach, are washed out. The Wall South Memorial is now under water. At least a half dozen houses downtown Pensacola on Martin Luther King Drive have been demolished. The Aragon subdivision is under water and cars are submerged up to their windows. Major banks throughout Pensacola, including the high rise SunTrust, one of Pensacola’s highest buildings, have windows blown out.
pensacolanewsjournal.com
None of that surprises me. Brownsville is where the majority of the streetwalkers work.
Thanks for the warm welcome. I intend to pursue your movement indicator theory when things settle down a bit, but right now, both me and my systems are running at capacity, plus whatever else I can squeeze them for.
For people seeking damage reports, I think you will see general overviews by this evening for mainland areas only, 24 more hours to get overviews from the barrier islands and detailed reports from the mainland, and another 24 to 48 hours past that for details from the barrier islands.
For a broad overview of the storm's landfall, windfields and surge effects, take a look at this image, posted earlier but reposted for later arrivals to this thread:
http://users.in-motion.net/~jefft/tech/Mapping/afghanistan/4msurgetext.jpg
Note that this is based on a theoretical 13.2 foot surge, while the few anecdotal ground truth reports suggest values closer to 15 to 16 feet, that it does not include tide effects or wave heigths, and that the surge overlay was applied to the entire coastline, while in reality it would drop off outside the maximum areas.
I answer to anything, these days. Whenever I hear "Mom" in public, my head turns and I say, "yes, what?" :)
Guess those in Brownsville didn't hear about the cerfew, just read there is looting there. The Wall South Mem. is under water. Doesn't surprise me, right there at the water.
I could say that your daughter looks just like you, but I did not want to insult a Freeper friend.
You have given me a face to associate with my personal image of her.
Only teasing (as you well know) and thanks for sharing the picture with us.
LOL were we posting at the same time?? My puter is running slow, think I need to do a good cleaning on it. If there is anything else on the areas I mentioned, pls pass them along, will look for them in a bit. Thanks.
Thanks...I have a good friend who moved there recently. So sad, it was to be their retirement home. They left before it hit, of course. I have family in Ft. Myers who endured Charley, but given the geography of Gulf Breeze, I'm very concerned. I am not familiar with the area either, in fact, I live in a state where water is rare. Bless you all!
You have earned my respect last night, and that is not easy to achieve.
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