Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
Go to post # 601 to see the map. I hope your aunt and uncle and family are OK, too and will be praying. I think Gulf Breeze was hit very hard.
We think we have her and the children
on an emergency flight this afternoon
via arrangements with the US Embassy
in Kingston, Jamacai, that will take
them to Ft. Lauderdale. God, let it be true,
and let it happen as scheduled.
The baby is covered with insect (horse fly) bites
and a heat rash and they ran out of water this morning.
Hurricane Jeanne is on it's way. I think it's headed for the east coast of FLA, though.
My poor pecan trees! They've thrown their not quite ready yet nuts! No pecan pies for family Alas Babylon this year!
Birmingham should get the brunt about 3-5 hours from now. Max winds there about 50MPH, according to WSFA-TV channel 12 in Montgomery.
I have not forgotten you and your family.
From the images available, I estimate that there was about 6 to 7 feet (half the truck heigth) of bridge above sea level when they were taken, indicating a surge of 18 to 19 feet at that location. Note that the bay could easily funnel a 15 to 16 foot surge (anecdotal reports so far) to a greater heigth in a localized area, and that other areas further out in the bay may not have seen that high a surge. Conversely, other areas may have received a higher surge.
I suspect the bridge damage was due to individual waves, from the limited extent of the visible effects.
Is it true that Frances is still wandering around and has entered the Gulf of Mexico?
The last report I heard from Pensacola Beach was this morning from NBC's Kerry Sanders who is holed up in a specially designed dome home to withstand a Cat 5. If I remember correctly he said he was surrounded by water. Doesn't sound good. The Gulf Breeze school right after you go over that bridge into Pensacola Beach is probably destroyed.
My mom talked to our relatives in Pensacola. They all are okay but haven't been able to get out and check out the damage on their homes. My aunt doesn't have homeowners insurance. My aunt's son's windows were blown out. They all live on the same street in three different houses but last night, my 80 yr old aunt went to stay with her daughter down the street. The good thing is they all live in brick homes. But they are still getting high winds so they're still riding it out. Will know more later.
They are all in my prayers, still.
You have done an outstanding job through all of this. God Bless you.
whew, so glad to hear this good news about your mom and the nursing home!!
Huge gust of winds a couple of minutes ago. Channel 12 Montgomery is now off the air!
Oh, and wondering how the Destin Harbor held up?
sw
I have always loved Ft. Walton and the area. I lived on SR Island just down the street from the Gulfarium (east of it) in 1971. I know it is SO built up now but it was so beautiful. My dad's boss lived on Navarre and I swear, his house was one of only about 2 or 3 houses right around there.
I'd like to see aerial shots, too.
Heard a report from a hotel manager on Orange beach. Waves reportedly reached FOURTH STORY on Beach front resorts.
Sorry I called you Valleygirl...I hate it when that happens :~)
Thank you so much for your prayers and good thoughts.
She is trying to get to the airport right now.
At least this time, I have the name and telephone number
of a "real" person in charge of the flight at the US Embassy in Kingston. He has promised us that they will
get on that plane... he knows the sick baby cannot endure
much more.
Praying for you and your family. Will pass this to my church prayer line and my husbands christians at work email list.
Thank you!
That will be wonderful.
Bless you.
News from Mobile is pretty much all good. They LUCKED OUT! No beach erosion on the Mobile side of the bay, but nobody in the city has power. USS Alabama is still there and the causeway was never submerged. The south winds pushed the water right out of the Bay.
I can't get through to anyone in the Gulf Shores area. I'm crossing my fingers that Fort Morgan was spared a Gulf breech into the lagoon. It's 20 miles west of Gulf Shores proper on a very thin sliver of sand.
Onyx, send me a message the moment you learn that your daughter has departed the island.
We will talk about the embassy at a later time.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.