Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
Maybe we'll get some AERIAL shots of the area soon.
sw
Unless NO takes the threat seriously and bolsters coastal flooding defenses, it is only a matter of time before it happens. It's not rocket science. Look at Holland.
Thanks for Montgomery radio report. What's the prognosis for Birmingham? I have relatives there who are getting too old to cope with falling trees.
The computers in the barns/shed/etc are used to record and track feed rations, birthing records etc.
Thanks for the reply. If I can find any info, I will forward it on to you. :)
Article for you about Navarre and area
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/news/html/AA2A0D2D-4E42-461C-B649-447C5C42437C.shtml
Article for you about Navarre and area
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/news/html/AA2A0D2D-4E42-461C-B649-447C5C42437C.shtml
Slocomb, in Geneva County, AL, is about 50 miles north of DeFuniak. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that these two miniature horse enthusiasts know each other.
You can bank on that. Did you see how high Pensacola Bay got? Usually when you drive over that bridge there's at least 25 feet to the water. I suspect the surge most likely completely submerged much of Okaloosa Island. I don't mean to alarm, but it's bad there. I have heard NOTHING about Gulf Breeze or Pensacola Beach.
It looks like it still pretty much sucks there weather wise present moment. Fox is reporting that Panama City is still under curfew.
Very little is yet to be known about Gulf Shores/Orange Beach/Perdido Key. All I've heard is that traffic is being stopped on one side of the Intercoastal Canal on HWY 59 because the road is under 8 feet of water. I think the surge probably went all the way over the island and into the Intercoastal. Same as Frederick. Eastward down the beach toward Pensacola probably received (receiving) the most damage. Hope the FloriBama is still there.
A mere 2 degrees less of a turn to the north, way back when it was several hundred miles offshore, and things would have been *very* different!
Our power is still on; however, my mom who lives in a mother-in-law suite attached to our home has lost power. Apparently, the source of her power is from a different transformer from ours. Winds are dying down considerably now and it's barely raining at all. All in all, we've been very fortunate. Thank you Lord.
It is impossible to publish a 3D visual technique in a scientific journal.
However, I am more than willing to teach others how to do it, if they have the desire to learn.
LOOK FOR THE WALL!
Tornado reported just South of Ft Benning, GA moving NW at 70MPH!!!! Folks in the path should take cover ASAP!
I'm sorry about your family. Are they staying with other family members or a they at a shelter?
Dang! My lights are starting to flicker! Winds picking up.
My dad rigged up the barn to make it as convenient and comfortable for his horses as possible. My sisters and I joke that they are treated better than we were (just kidding, of course).
Hotel for the time being. No family for a thousand miles and I'm ten thousand miles away.
When things have cleared up a bit in a couple of days they may get back home. We'll see.
I just heard about Montgomery on TV. Will be praying for you, AB.
My mother and her nursing home in Fairhope also came through okay. Thanks, everyone, for their prayers.
It will be a few days before my sister can assess the damage to their house. We may have to come up with some emergency funds from them because their house would have received a direct hit from the storm. I have no idea about the condition of the horses.
LOL!!!!
We just use our barn for storage. Eventually hubby wants to put in electricity, but more for a workshop than anything else.
It was never used for livestock, just farm equipment storage.....it's' big enough to hold 2 tractor trailers.
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