Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
I have to work for a few hours today and then off to daughter's swim meet but will check back in later to see if this thread is still going. I'd like to see if they find the driver and how everybody is faring.
Prayers for everyone in the area(s), family and friend's.
Can anyone direct me to any info on Gulf Breeze?
what paper was the pic of the truck posted on?
If you look at any map of the area you'll see that decent roads in and out of the area are few and far between.
Neither 90 nor 98 can handle much more east-west flow and Hwy 29 really only goes nowhere.
"You cain't git there from here" truly applies in this area, especially now!
An image at Drudge from a higher angle shows possible mis-alignment of two piers, possibly multiple missing piers, and substantial damage to the westbound lanes on the far side of the high spans over the channel.
http://www.drudgereport.com/
Bumping from South Central Alabama. Still wet n' wild!!!!
Winds at 40 MPH steady.
Thanks, I just don't think he realized what he was in for.
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/
Just heard from my refugee family that they may not be able to return home for weeks due to power outages.
Thanks, I just don't think he realized what he was in for.
The easiest way to see it is just click on the Drudge link in my last post.
Man. We are in the middle of moving to the country. Our pole barn is shabby by any standards... expecially these!! ;)
You are very likely right on the money!!!!
If they would spend less money on typical "entitlement" programs, they'd have more for natural disasters. I bet there are all sorts of bogus programs to help keep the welfare mongers as "good clients" creating ongoing "demand" for case workers and other good-for-nothings. Meanwhile, the beat cops, nurses and firemen have to scrimp. Liberalism - it is a disease.
heck, my barn doesn't even have electricity!!!!
Listening to local Montgomery radio and tv stations....
A LOT of power outages throughout Southern Alabama....
Probably those FReeprs from around these parts aren't keeping up on the thread without power.
I still have power which is a miracle in itself given the storm around me.
Pray for us here. Knocking on wood but thank God things are so far ok.
I'm curious about Gulf Breeze, as well. My elderly aunt and uncle live there, she is in a wheel chair and is unable to travel. We spoke to them last night and they were at my cousin's house in Pensacola......in the "Safe Room". Haven't been able to reach them today. I hope they have a home to return to.
Computers in barns...wow. It's funny, my dad was the guy who invented the hardware tester for the first IBM PC and he has this dinky little and very old computer in the house he plays games on. He's in the sticks, kinda, and won't get a new computer or internet because it's long distance. Having a phone in the barn is the only way I can reach him. :)
Can't we get a rest from these things?
Well you did better than me. My prediction was *initial* (initial being the operative word) landfall at Southwest Pass, which of course would have meant going back over water with a second landfall near the AL-MS stateline. The eye passed at least 25 miles east of my target. Whereas, you were good within about 5 or 10 miles. This storm was a wobbler and made it difficult to predict. Your technique is of interest. Will you publish?
Thanks,,looks like the driver may be lost.
any news on the newscaster who had a tornado hit him?
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