Hurricane Ivan -- Thursday 9/16 thread [Landfall!]

NWS/NHC, various | 9/16/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55

Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.

Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.

People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.

Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Pasch

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts

[tutstar]

I was hoping that Pensacola would be on but looks like it may be awhile.
I usually have 2-3 window with radar/sat loops going, plus 3-4 with different sites and 1 or 2 video going. Too bad can't play more than one WinMedia file at a time. I'd really be set then. LOL

Praying that we won't hear of too many more deaths. Looks pretty rough so far.

[libtoken]

An acquaintance's parents live in Diamond Head west of Gulfport MS, and they just got the power back. They reported getting maybe 50 mph winds but less rain than expected, perhaps some dry air slotting in. They took some water out of the pool in preparation, but will have to add some back now...

[Eagle Eye]

http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/

THE VERY LATEST: Updated @ 5:33 a.m. CDT
• National Weather Service update on Ivan
• Digest of need-to-know info
• Child killed after tree falls on mobile home
• Major damage reported at all Escambia County hospitals
• Community-by-community updates
• Power outage reports
• Eight shelters offer sanctuary
• Officials: DO NOT open doors or windows
• Latest hurricane center dispatch
• Latest photos
IVAN'S IMPACT ACROSS THE TROPICS AND GULF COAST

Hurricane Ivan Slams Alabama, Killing 12
Main Developments With Hurricane Ivan
Bush Assures 4 States of Hurricane Aid
Oil Markets Remain Tense Over Hurricanes
Synagogues Open Up to Hurricane Evacuees
One-Two-Three Punch Takes Toll on FEMA
Tropical Storm Jeanne Makes Landfall
Ivan Chases Hurricane Hunters From Base

[Quilla]

Good heavens! Your daughter, while protecting her children, lives through one of the most devastating hurricanes in years all the while reporting the horrid conditions to us through you. She's wondering what damage her own home has received. Then she endures snotty clients wanting inventories of their precious possessions as she attempts to find a way off the island. If the truth was known, I suspect those machete wielding thugs were more scared of her than she of them. God bless her.

[numberonepal]

First hand report from Mobile says the Bay did not come in. Bay Front Road off Dauphin Island Parkway did not wash away, and it looks as if the water did not get to the road. I'll speculate and say Ivan pulled the water out of the Bay while passing south of the mouth.

Gulf SHores reports are not good, however. No one can really know until some helios get up to survey the damage becuase no vehicles can get past the Zoo on 59.

[No Blue States]

New Orleans spared, weakening before landfall to 3, Mobile bay spared direct hit.

Its not over, but could have been much worse bookmark.

[mhking]

Not sure if this will work, but someone sent me a link for ABC NewsNOW that might work for folks who don't have access: http://wwitv.com/tvtv/abc.ram

(On the other hand, if you've got broadband access from AOL, Comcast, SBC/Yahoo or BellSouth, you already get access to ABC NewsNow from the news section of your provider's portal page -- which differs from service to service)

And the rest of the streaming list....

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP): http://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WJZD-FM Biloxi (WMP): http://www.wjzd.com/wjzd.asx
WNSP-FM Mobile (MP3): http://209.136.114.9:8000/listen.pls
WPMI-AM Mobile (WMP): http://mmslb.eonstreams.com/ccri_al_mobile_wntm_am.asf
WPMI-TV/DT Mobile/Pensacola (WMP): http://video.wpmi.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=36468&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=16&Obj_ID=
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8172/live/reflector:24024.ram
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham: http://nbc13.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=85647

[Eagle Eye]

I have special interest in Santa Rosa east of Pensacola.

[hawkk]

I have interest in the NAS P-cola area...if anyone has info please pass it along.

[NCjim]

FYI - that last link for Birmingham is playing the news from last Friday 09/10 talking about Ivan near the islands south of Florida. :-)

[Eagle Eye]

My post 543 has a link to the pensacolanewsjournal.com where you can get lots of info.

Do you have internet access?

[AmericanMade1776]

Just want to say...Sister who lives in Daphne called my Mom, this morning, and they are all fine. The lost power as soon as the storm hit, but were prepared with a generator. No report on outside damage,yet, as Her husband was getting ready to go out an access the damage...

[Vigilantcitizen]

I'm so thankful we are safe and have power. Prayers going out for all those in Ivan's path. I'm afraid the threat is still with us for some time. Good luck.

Glad to hear you're alright. I was worried about you when the tornado warnings were called for Dothan.

[hawkk]

Yes I have been to that site, but I can't get a whole lot. I guess they just haven't had the time to get out and post stuff on the page. I did find out what happened to Ashley Chisolm (sp)tho! Always wondered where she went to. Thanks so much Eagle. Hope you and yours have good news when you get back home.

[Eagle Eye]

And yes, I was kidding about 'net access!

But you do need to see if you are logged on.

Ok, ok....the stress is getting to me, sorry!

[Alas Babylon!]

Back up again (yawning). Rain quite heavy, winds gusting to 72MPH. So far (rapidly knocking on wood) we still have power. Tornado warning 3 hours ago, but was only a doppler effect.

[mhking]

Try this one: http://nbc13.feedroom.com/?fr_story=d9973e42287119d3ec2ed1568ce2ae5a961a528d

Otherwise, check on the feedroom page that comes up -- there should be a link for "Live Coverage" on it.

[hawkk]

OMG!!! I forgot to log in again??? Am so sorry!! :)

[Quilla]

Thanks! Rain is coming down now is sheets, our pool is white-capping, and the wind is whipping. I'm amazed at the small amount of debris in the yard as our house is surrounded by huge, old trees. Having two teenagers, as usual, we have a house full of spend the night company. Several are on quilts in an interior hallway, all are sleeping as if nothing is happening. Hopefully, they'll sleep through the worst of it.

[NCjim]

Thanks. That link gives me a voice that says "sorry, that link can't be found." Then clicking on the live coverage window gives me a graphic that says the story is not ready yet. :-)

I will check it later though - my cousin lives in Birmingham and they are expecting a rough day today!