Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
I just looked at the computer models for Ivan's path on
http://www.wunderground.com
They loop the system's track back south after going north for awhile.
Weird looking!
http://pensacolanewsjournal.com/hurricane/091604hospitals.html
Escambia County hospitals have sustained significant damage from Hurricane Ivan
My niece who just started med school on Grand Cayman a couple of weeks ago was flown out - the school chartered two planes for the students.
I called my sister last night to ask when school will start again. She said that they just don't know.
I will tell her about the looters.
I heard yesterday that all of Grand Cayman was underwater at some point during the hurricane.
I will never build a house on a barrier island, but it sure is fun to stay in someone else's house.
http://pensacolanewsjournal.com/hurricane/091604hospitals.html
Escambia County hospitals have sustained significant damage from Hurricane Ivan
Whoa! Just was awoken by the tornado sirens going off. However, it was only doppler radar spotted, and moving away from my house (in Alabama).
My family evacuated to Tuscaloosa from Pensacola. How're things there?
Contact in Columbus, Georgia said a little rain and wind outside. Not much yet there.
Just woke up have tv on and came to find your streaming links? Just curious, how many windows (on the pc) do you have open?
Dawn's first light approaching FL Gulf Coast.
Just a couple - generally, I'll bail on one to lock down another; then I'll settle on one.
I haven't been able to bring the Mobile link back up this morning yet, so I've been watching the station out of Birmingham (NBC 13); I wouldn't be surprised if several others come online this morning.
Good morning all! The wind has been incredible for the past several hours in Dothan. I'm one of those who can sleep through anything - including hurricanes. However, my husband has been walking the house all night checking on us and our company. We have an friend who's been riding around surveying damage - he reports that power is out on the southside of town.
I'm so thankful we are safe and have power. Prayers going out for all those in Ivan's path. I'm afraid the threat is still with us for some time. Good luck.
Good to hear all is well with you. I've been following this thread from the peaceful Midwest and praying for you all. Sen. Shelby now on TV talking about Mobile which sounds not good.
WOO HOO! good news
The winds and rain have ramped up a little here in Atlanta; about half the school systems around (mostly on the west and south sides) here have closed; I fully expect others to shut down as the day progresses.
Updated live stream list:
WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP): http://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WJZD-FM Biloxi (WMP): http://www.wjzd.com/wjzd.asx
WNSP-FM Mobile (MP3): http://209.136.114.9:8000/listen.pls
WPMI-AM Mobile (WMP): http://mmslb.eonstreams.com/ccri_al_mobile_wntm_am.asf
WPMI-TV/DT Mobile/Pensacola (WMP): http://video.wpmi.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=36468&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=16&Obj_ID=
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8172/live/reflector:24024.ram
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham: http://nbc13.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=85647
And if you have access to ABC NewsNOW, they have been carrying live coverage from WMBB-TV Panama City.
thanks for the list... listening to some coverage now.
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