Well, I hope you're right. It's wobbled due north before but has always gotten right back on a NW track.
-Dan
To all - in every radar, look carefully at the last 2-4 frames (depending on the update rate - it's within the past hour). I believe the turn to the northward track really is now in progress. Yes, it is subtle: just keep watching (though I fully acknowledge it could be a temporary Kerry-wobble thing).
It does have a quick forward motion, so that should reduce the effect the land will have on it's overall direction. If it were crawling, it might seek to go up the Mississippi River, since steering currents appear to be nonexistent. The worst of it will probably be Mobile, AL.
Did you see how the size of the eye expanded?
Al, I swear, I keep looking at the radar loops, very very closely, and I really don't have a preference which way it's going . . . but even as of 2 minutes ago, it's still going NNW . . . there is NOT an eastern shift, nor has it shifted to due North . . . it is on a direct bead for the Big Easy . . .
I agree completely; but I also note the following: while it looks like the eye took a turn to the North during the last two frames, I get the sense that the bulk of the heavy storms continued NW. It seemed to me that the NW side of the eye tends to have a smaller density of heavy rain than the SE side of the eye (similar to a trail following a comet) for all of the frames, right until the last two—at such point the NW side was thicker than the SE side. I get the felling that the eye turned, but the mass of the storm had enough inertia to continue towards NO. If the eye returns to following that mass, sort of like a slingshot effect, NO could be hit.
Many of us got faked out by wobble earlier today. I'll put it this way; I cannot rule out the possibility this one is not wobble, and sincerely hope it is indeed not wobble. I am still open to the prediction I made early yesterday of *initial* landfall at Southwest Pass, which is certainly still a few miles from NO and certainly east of it in longitude. I would now feel comfortable almost ruling out landfall anywhere west of about 91 W longitude.