Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[Flux Capacitor]

I used to live in Houston.... will remember for the rest of my life a lady who called in to a radio station during a major storm there, mentioning she was going to make gumbo for her friends while they rode it out:

DJ: "Cool! You're making a roux?"

(slight pause.)

CALLER: "A what?"

-Dan

[Conservababe]

Do you mean to say that you are still in Biloxi? Whatever happened to your mind to stay?

[Gabz]

40 years!!!!!!!!

God Bless you both - that's wonderful!!!!!!!

[Flux Capacitor]

Well, I hope you're right. It's wobbled due north before but has always gotten right back on a NW track.

-Dan

[Tuxedo]

It does have a quick forward motion, so that should reduce the effect the land will have on it's overall direction. If it were crawling, it might seek to go up the Mississippi River, since steering currents appear to be nonexistent. The worst of it will probably be Mobile, AL.

[Tall_Texan]

LOL!

I lived through Alicia in 1983.

[dfwgator]

NOLA will be impacted one way or another, but whether the storm comes east or west of NOLA will make a huge difference.

[Types_with_Fist]

I agree on the staying part there Mrs. Mel. Your husband has made a big mistake.

[pnz1]

Off topic, but this thread is going to top 1000 posts by 3pm Central?

[dfwgator]

Did you see how the size of the eye expanded?

[LadyPilgrim]

Hey there!
Thanks for your concern. He isn't well.
It was a year ago on 9/11. We were in Fairhope at the time. We are supposed to go down again this year on the 27th. We have a golf vacation. The guys golf, and the girls shop!

I hope everything is okay down there on Mobile Bay.

God Bless everyone down that way!

[BurbankKarl]

W5WA reporting, Van Cleve MS

14mph sustain, 45mph gusts
falling barometer

[Truth666]

September 14, 2004 - the age of global superstorms starts
September 15, 2004 - Will Big Easy turn into Big Soup
Why New Orleans is threatened by destruction

[mrsmel]

When I woke up I was really vacillating because of my dogs. My husband is having an elderly friend stay here because his nursing home was evacuated,and it seemed that if it was safe enough for them,I'd be OK with them.

[cajungirl]

They are not my kids but so far no rain, no big wind so it looks okay.It is a small lake.

[LikeLight]

Al, I swear, I keep looking at the radar loops, very very closely, and I really don't have a preference which way it's going . . . but even as of 2 minutes ago, it's still going NNW . . . there is NOT an eastern shift, nor has it shifted to due North . . . it is on a direct bead for the Big Easy . . .

[gopwinsin04]

I cant believe they were sending people away to closed shelters..

[LA Woman3]

I'm close to Baton Rouge and there have been no announcements about the LSU game. The team is still scheduled to leave Friday afternoon.

[BurbankKarl]

NL7MD Fort Walton Beach, FL

12 mph gusts

29.50 and falling

[Gabz]

Life can never be too awful if you can make a hot bowl of gumbo!

You just reminded me - I've got a big thing of Gumbo in the freezer - I just decided dinner!!! It's the last of the best batch of Gumbo I've ever made and I think tonight would be appropriate to utilize it!!!!