Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

---

Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[cajungirl]

havent heard. LSU.EDU site should have it. I doubt it is a go.

[Pyro7480]

[Stat-boy]

Careful on that satellite shot - it's on a bit of an angle. Yes, again: it's definitely gonna get wet-n-windy in the Big Easy, but it's going east. To all - in every radar, look carefully at the last 2-4 frames (depending on the update rate - it's within the past hour). I believe the turn to the northward track really is now in progress. Yes, it is subtle: just keep watching (though I fully acknowledge it could be a temporary Kerry-wobble thing).

I agree completely; but I also note the following: while it looks like the eye took a turn to the North during the last two frames, I get the sense that the bulk of the heavy storms continued NW. It seemed to me that the NW side of the eye tends to have a smaller density of heavy rain than the SE side of the eye (similar to a trail following a comet) for all of the frames, right until the last two—at such point the NW side was thicker than the SE side. I get the felling that the eye turned, but the mass of the storm had enough inertia to continue towards NO. If the eye returns to following that mass, sort of like a slingshot effect, NO could be hit.

[Sam Cree]

Looks like it should hit east of NO I hope, and the farther the better.

Not that I wish harm to Mobile, it's just that NO seems like the most vulnerable spot with a large population.

My son went to school there for awhile, on at least one occasion we had to fly him out in the face of a hurricane, learned about the potential horror stories at that time.

[12.7x99mm]

my prayers are going out to you folks in the south. Stay safe.

[Gabz]

I'm on the northeast Atlantic coast area of Virginia and have had torrential rain all day........and none of it has anything to do with any of the tropical stuff going on.

That will be coming this weekend, I'm sure.

[united1000]

Hugh - Second most destructive hurricane:

I know that was good through 2000, but I think Charley may have taken over that spot.

[groanup]

"...it's still going NNW . . . there is NOT an eastern shift, nor has it shifted to due North . ."

I'm seeing what you're seeing. This storm has a history of jogging W but seldom N. At least it looks slightly east of NOLA and not west which, I am told, would be disastrous.

[gopwinsin04]

IVAN is wobbling his way up the Mississippi!

[Laura Earl]

Just checked AU's website, and so far it is still on. Of course, Auburn dismissed classes yesterday for the remainder of the week.

[GOP_1900AD]

Many of us got faked out by wobble earlier today. I'll put it this way; I cannot rule out the possibility this one is not wobble, and sincerely hope it is indeed not wobble. I am still open to the prediction I made early yesterday of *initial* landfall at Southwest Pass, which is certainly still a few miles from NO and certainly east of it in longitude. I would now feel comfortable almost ruling out landfall anywhere west of about 91 W longitude.

[Vol2727]

I have been following Ivan since the beginning. I have relatives scattered throughout Fla. Fort Myers, Largo/Clearwater, Daytona Beach, and Pensacola.

They just said on Fox News with Shep that it appears it could hit Mobile Bay and that on the right of the hurricane is where the worst of it will be. They showed this little circle and Pensacola is right there on the right.

My mom has talked with our family down there and our cousin who is riddled with rheumatoid arthritis absolutely refuses to leave. Traveling is very hard on him. So the rest of the family are staying at the house with him and will try to ride it out. The main concern we have for them is they are completely surrounded by huge trees and are in an area where flooding has happened before. He was forced to retire early from the Marines due to the arthritis.

They don't seem to be saying much about Pensacola on the news. What is everyone's take on Pensacola's chances?

[AmericanMade1776]

My Sister lives in Daphne Alabama..right on the Mobile Bay area, she is there with her Husband and two children.

[BurbankKarl]

the national hurricane center just told a station in Mexico that they expect it to go right up into mobile, al bay in 4 hours.

[alancarp]

Intellicast Loop

Okay, here's the deal: to hit New Orleans with the eye will require a near 45 degree left turn immediately. Yes, everything from NOLA (maybe even Red Stick) to past Fort Walton Beach is gonna significantly feel this. Hurricane force winds will go from NOLA to Pensacola.

The current longitude of the eye's center is still just at the Miss/Ala border, and in this intellicast view, I see it moving almost due north -- maybe 5 degrees left of that.

That border region is still most likely the target, though it could hang out to Gulfport or Biloxi.

[Wyatt's Torch]

The Athletic Department said they would wait until Thursday P.M. or Friday A.M. to make a decision (in conjunction with LSU). Weather on Friday/Saturday won't be the issue but the destruction in Louisiana and South Alabama and the ability to put on the game from a resource standpoint will be the issue.

Hope everyone in those areas stays safe.

[Pyro7480]

Between 16:15 UTC (11:15 am CDT) and the present hour, Ivan's eye has become less ragged and more symetrical, given what I see on the IR satellite loop. That is NOT a good sign.

[Flux Capacitor]

----Hugh - Second most destructive hurricane:----

It was just hugh!

-Dan

[GOP_1900AD]

What is the longitude of the AL-MS border? 88 deg 30 min W? Anyone know off hand?

[Flux Capacitor]

----Hugh - Second most destructive hurricane:----

It was just hugh!

-Dan