Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[gopwinsin04]

This is a major FUBAR.

The Mayor just said all of the shelters listed at the Superdome for regular folks are not in operation or full!

[LikeLight]

I don't know where you are, but don't let the kid go out on the lake with the canoe . . . there will be tornados and unexpected wind gusts as this thing comes on shore . . . like very soon . . .

[alancarp]

GET YOUR MOTHER OUT OF FAIRHOPE!!

[Wyatt's Torch]

Any word on the status of the Auburn-LSU game from your end? I realize it's a trivial issue but, being a huge Auburn football fan, was curious if you had heard anything locally.

Thanks and stay safe.

[Howlin]

Wow, if hell wasn't getting ready to unleash on you, I'd say I'd be right down!

You need one of these:

[IamConservative]

Actually the last image or two show it turning due North. Looks like Mobile may get the brunt of the surge.

[pnz1]

What's the difference in NNW and NW? Really-I'm terrible with directions..

[Tall_Texan]

Life can never be too awful if you can make a hot bowl of gumbo!

[mrsmel]

Pascagoula,AKA P'goula. We're getting some light rain and gusts now (Biloxi) It's getting darker.

[Severa]

Good lord, I've never seen a hurricane eye that clear before. That's just...wrong...

[billygoatgruff]

Have no fear..Space Aliens protect Pascagoula, as well as Gulf Breeze - so they'll brush lil Ivan somewhere else.

[BurbankKarl]

That mayor is going to have a lot of explaining to do...perhaps he listened to the Accuweather forecast.

[Pyro7480]

NNW is in-between due north and northwest.

[weatherFrEaK]

Excellent IR loop of IVAN here...

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_07/anis.html

[sheikdetailfeather]

Shephard Smith said it will feel like a cat. 5 when it first hits because of the forward speed.

[Gabz]

It may not hit NOLA directly - but this monster is so huge that no matter where it hits NOLA is going to be impacted.

[sheikdetailfeather]

I am in Central Florida and it has been cloudy all day and now is lightly raining.

[Tall_Texan]

I can't get her out. I'm in Texas. She's in a nursing home and I have to assume those folks know what they are doing. She's not on the coast and the nursing home is a rather sturdy structure. But prayers are welcome!

[alancarp]

Careful on that satellite shot - it's on a bit of an angle. Yes, again: it's definitely gonna get wet-n-windy in the Big Easy, but it's going east.

To all - in every radar, look carefully at the last 2-4 frames (depending on the update rate - it's within the past hour). I believe the turn to the northward track really is now in progress. Yes, it is subtle: just keep watching (though I fully acknowledge it could be a temporary Kerry-wobble thing).

[Gabz]

NOLA will be 80 miles from the landfall position.

SO WHAT........the system is nearly 600 miles wide with hurricane force winds more than 100 miles from the eye center.