Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[MamaB]

I was on the phone with our daughter and we were watching the weather channel. It looked like th storm was headed directly for NO. We are near the TN River and TVA has started lowering the water levels so areas will not flood.

[alancarp]

I was just asked to look at the radar loop in post 3 -- look carefully (nice shot, BTW): Ivan is now tracking dead North to the Miss/Alabama border. NOLA will be 80 miles from the landfall position.

[balrog666]

Looks like Ivan's eye will come ashore right at Pascagoula. How far from this land fall spot to New Orleans? Will NO still have a bad time of it too?

About 90-100 miles. And NO will be on the "good" side.

[cajungirl]

Oh my,,I trust FR more than the weather channel. Is that bad? It is now a bit overcast, heavier clouds in BR,surface of our lake looks like a river with all the water flowing to the west. Wind in little gusts with sun coming out every few minutes. Hubby working on tree. Gave up on chain saw, it hasn't been used in a while and needed some sort of taking apart. I think our trees which are small may not get down. Kid across the street dragging canoe to lake with his lab retriever,,pretty sight. Kids are thrilled to be out of school. Over and out in BR!

[Flux Capacitor]

----Would the eye going directly over NOLA be preferable to the storm hitting west of NOLA in terms of flooding?----

It would, but if this thing keeps tracking NW, it just might hit west of NOLA.

-Dan

[Conservative4Ever]

Can NO survive this glancing blow? Will the storm surge be bad enough to flood the city? I'm just a west coast girl who knows nuthin about no hurricanes. :) But I'm learning fast reading these posts.

Red

[brothers4thID]

Looks like Pascagoola ( I know I spelled that wrong, sorry!) to me.

[Howlin]

You are in the way of this thing??????

OMG, well, I'll be up all night now worrying about you, blam, and the rest of you people!

[alancarp]

My Accuweather expert says 'yes', it will survive - the catastrophe will be in Mobile. Note that the circulation direction will "pull" water out of the Mississippi River. That will provide some room for the pumps to do their thing.

[cajungirl]

I think if it goes east of NO all that will happen is trees, roofs off, some minor flooding. But if it comes right over or west, all bets are off.

[alancarp]

I have studiously avoided trying to type the name of that city. I'm going with "Miss/Ala. border".

[LadyPilgrim]

Honey, we have room for all of you!
Just don't take any chanches! You can bring everybody.
I'm making Manhattan clam chowder tonight! There will be leftovers! ;-)

This one could be bad!

God Bless you all!
BTW my Sweet Baby and I will be married 40 years next April!
I can't believe it! Seems like just a little bit ago!

[Tall_Texan]

The East side of the storm is considered the "dirty" side with the higher winds and higher chance of tornados.

It looks like the System is veering northwest but the is moving more due north. I think it's going to wind up making landfall around Biloxi or just west of it.

I'm afraid I'm in a no-win situation here. My mother is trying to ride out the storm in Fairhope AL which is on the east side of Mobile Bay. My sister and brother, meanwhile have "evacuated" to Picayune, MS which may actually get hit harder than if they had stayed home near Foley, AL.

They all lived through Frederic in 1979 and this looks like it will be roughly the same.

[winodog]

Rick Leventhal just gave a great live report from NO on fox news. They showed quite a few people standing around Lake Pontchartrain? Lots of flooding already.

[cajungirl]

I am fine, in Baton Rouge. We get wind, power out and minor flooding. Tornadoes. The power out is the worst, last one 10 years ago we had no power for a week. But I am prepared with frozen cajun chili, gumbo, french bread, wine, and food, water. We forgot the battery radio! We do have cell phones and gas in all cars. And good books. And candles. We are way too old to worry about birth control!!! LOL

[GOP_1900AD]

Isn't that loop a bit old? The last image on it was something like 1045 EDT.

[LikeLight]

New radar loops seems to show again at least a jog NW . . .

[Flux Capacitor]

Sorry, but I don't see that.... it's heading NW in that radar, too; it's just running too slow to be obvious. But I'm looking at three other separate radars that are clearer:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

-Dan

[Tall_Texan]

Hi, LP! I remember that situation with your son. Everything okay? Stay safe!

[Types_with_Fist]

According to this Current Satellite Imagery...:-), the worst part of the storm is already near New Orleans, and the eye moving nearer to Plaquemines Parish, which is now completely in the red. The eye is decidedly west of the Alabama/Mississippi border. The movement, generally, is NNW.