Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[DouglasKC]

Look at post 3...the eye has become very well defined and there is a definite turn toward New Orleans...if you haven't left you had better do it soon...

[alancarp]

It is not - repeat NOT - moving toward NOLA: it would have to go on an immediate 45 degree left turn to do so. Focus on the Miss/Alabama border.

[flutters]

I was just listening to the live feed link that mhking posted. The reporters said they opened this shelter for those that must have electricity to survive (oxygen, etc.). They showed a family with four children, one was sick with a virus, that they had to turn away. It was heartbreaking, but someone transported them to another shelter.

Things look bad. Prayers sent for all in Ivan's path.

[Conservative4Ever]

Looks like Ivan's eye will come ashore right at Pascagoula. How far from this land fall spot to New Orleans? Will NO still have a bad time of it too?

Red

[alancarp]

Try this radar, too, for evidence: http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=kmsy&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadarLoop&prodnav=none

[cajungirl]

No food? In Louisiana? Unbelievable. And a sick child. What in God's name is going on? Is NO really the target now? Someone upthread posted that,,is it true?

[alancarp]

As the crow flies - they are about 90 miles apart.

[DouglasKC]

It is not - repeat NOT - moving toward NOLA: it would have to go on an immediate 45 degree left turn to do so. Focus on the Miss/Alabama border.

Do you know where New Orleans is? Look at the loop in post 3, especially for the last two hours...

[gopwinsin04]

I just hope that family doesnt get to the other shelters and find out that they are closed..

[mississippi red-neck]

Appreciate the offer Lady. Have Children and grandchildren Just over the line In Ala west of Mobile my home town. Wife Of 38 yrs is from Miss.

We have her mother who is 80 and our youngest daughter so I guess we'll just duck and hang on. Been through quite a few but this one looks bad. MRN

[Kennesaw]

Thanks for the map.

I wonder if the Aquarium of the Americas , on the river, is built to withstand a cat 3 or 4?

If not, what a mess. :-(

[alancarp]

Oh, you had a part two to your question. If this holds on course, NOLA might see sustained 70 winds, with a few higher gusts. The hurricane force winds are reported to be 100 miles from the center, but the nearest Gulf buoy isn't quite showing that.

[sweetliberty]

“I’m going to sit on my front porch, and I’m going to ride this puppy out,”

Perhaps literally.

[1066AD]

http://www.nola.com/rivercam/

[gopwinsin04]

45-50 mph gusts on the Alabama Mississippi border..

[Flux Capacitor]

----It is not - repeat NOT - moving toward NOLA: it would have to go on an immediate 45 degree left turn to do so. Focus on the Miss/Alabama border.----

Um, actually, yeah it is. In fact, it's heading DIRECTLY for NOLA. None of the northeastern turns the Weather Channel has been promising are happening, because the high-pressure system to the west has turned out to be too weak to bring them about.

-Dan

[1smallVoice]

They have tried to force all these recent stoms east. Obviously this one is headed NW, not North, not NE.

[alancarp]

Yes, I understand: NOLA will get seriously wet and windy -- but the Big Kahuna will be 80-90 miles away from there.

[dfwgator]

Would the eye going directly over NOLA be preferable to the storm hitting west of NOLA in terms of flooding? It's worse from the wind damage aspect, but the real problem is the flooding, correct?

[gopwinsin04]

Im getting worried about possible tornadoes spinning off of this thing, and the fire ants probably wont mix too well at the aquarium..