Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

---

Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[groanup]

Can't really tell from this graphic if it's N or NNW.

http://www.cnn.com/WEATHER/NAmerica/radar.sc.anim.html

[hummingbird]

Go to NOLA.com for web cams.

Thanks, cajungirl!

[Types_with_Fist]

WITH EYE EVIDENT AND RAIN BANDS NOW COMING ONSHORE TO THE SRN PLAQUEMINES PARISH NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER

This is what has concerned me all along. Plaquimines, in case you are not familiar, is that thin slice of land that juts out into the Gulf from Louisiana. To the east, I believe, is this "Soutwest Pass" we've heard tell about. For years the fear in New Orleans has been a CAT 4 or 5 "at the mouth of the Mississippi River."

[gopwinsin04]

I was trying to stay positive..with that many people in a large city, the only place that could hold them all would be a football stadium!

I wonder if they have a 'safe room' for emergencies etc

[agrace]

AS IVAN MOVES IN A GENERAL NWD DIRECTION.

So it's officially not NNW then, as WTC has been forecasting? Is it still expected to turn east at some point?

[agrace]

That doesn't bode well for NO.

[Dan from Michigan]

I am positive I have asked you this before, but since I am old I have forgotten: did you once post a picture of a dock on a beautiful lake in the snow or sleet?

No, wasn't me.

[No Blue States]

You know the sun is Beating on the top of Ivan too.

[WoodstockCat]

that's really not good. Looking at the water temperature in-shore being about 3-5 degrees lower than the current water. Could Ivan be at 180 by the time it makes landfall?
How much strengthening in wind speed did Charley do before making landfall? the last 8 hours? wasn't it from a 2 to 4?

[libtoken]

Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 53a


Statement as of 1:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004



...Large and dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues northward toward the
Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to
Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and
Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City
Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to
Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.

At 1 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 27.8 north...longitude 88.2 west or about 170 miles south
of the Alabama coastline.

Ivan is moving toward the north near 14 mph...and this motion is
expected to continue over the next 24 hours. On the forecast
track...the center of Ivan is expected to reach the coast during
the very early morning hours on Thursday.

Ivan continues as as a extremely dangerous category four hurricane
on the Saffir/Simpson scale hurricane scale...with maximum
sustained winds near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations
in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected
to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher.
Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area
can expect higher winds than those experienced at the
surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a
30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could to
spread inland up to about 100 miles near the path of the center.

Ivan is a large hurricane...with hurricane force winds extending
outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extending outward up to 290 miles. The C-man station at
Southwest Pass Louisiana has reported sustained winds of 59 mph in
the past hour.

The latest pressure measured by a reconnaissance aircraft was 939
mb...27.73 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced
where onshore flow occurs west of the center.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely
elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Isolated tornadoes are possible beginning late this afternoon in
southern Alabama...the Florida Panhandle...and southwestern
Georgia.

Repeating the 1 PM CDT position...27.8 N... 88.2 W. Movement
toward...north near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 939 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 4 PM CDT.

Forecaster Franklin

[TheLion]

Thanks for the update. Stay safe and report in occasionally before the power goes.

[BurbankKarl]

Southest Pass

Located in the Mississippi River Delta, at the entrance to Southwest Pass from the Gulf of Mexico. Latitude: 28.985 Longitude: -89.391

[CWW]

It' not moving NW. It is now due North at 14mph and the models have not changed the landfall prediction of the MS/AL state line.

[LikeLight]

Not saying it's a trend, but the forward motion seems to have almost stopped in latest radar loop . . . this storm doesn't like land (remember how it did the odd jig around Jamaica, then skirted Cayman and then Cuba) . . . I wonder if it's gonna travel around in the gulf a bit now . . . east or west . . .

[Hatteras]

"I wonder if they have a 'safe room' for emergencies etc"

Well, at least there will be plenty of toilets to go around...

[GOP_1900AD]

Southwest Pass weather recording station:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=burl1

Conditions at BURL1 as of
(1:00 pm CDT)
1800 GMT on 09/15/2004:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 55 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 67 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.38 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.17 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.8 °F

[all4one]

30+ Wave prediction for Thursday morning...just checked this about an hour ago and the red wave area prediction was 24+....prayers to all in that area. Hopefully everyone has evacuated.

[Gabz]

Prayers for everyone, God bless. I'll be lurking but unless I hear something that would help others, I'm out.

Take care, God Bless.

[nwctwx]

984
URNT12 KNHC 151745
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/1745Z
B. 27 DEG 52 MIN N
88 DEG 14 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2554 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 002 DEG 104 KT
G. 274 DEG 015 NM
H. 937 MB
I. 12 C/ 3088 M
J. 18 C/ 3070 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/2.0 NM
P. AF963 4009A IVAN OB 17
MAX FL WIND 127 KT E QUAD 1619Z.

---

Pressure down another 2mb, Ivan is indeed strengthening.

[gopwinsin04]

Superdome still not open to the public, only 'special needs clients..'