Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
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Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[Gabz]

Pretty nasty thunderstorm right now, hm? (I'm in Chesapeake)

Haven't had t'storms yet - just steady rains since 8am.

I'm in accomack county on the mainland west of Chincoteague.

[gopwinsin04]

NOLA TV station finally changing their forecasts to reflect the non-eastern tracking..

[TheLion]

They are going to have hurricane winds pretty soon!

[GOP_1900AD]

They keep reporting "moving north" (and have been doing so now for over 3 hours!) and yet, the component of motion is clearly NNW. What *is* up with that?

[gopwinsin04]

NOLA TV Radar says its heading due North!

[Tuxedo]

NHC at 1PM CDT says storm moving N at 14 MPH, MSW of 135 MPH.

[Gabz]

I know I'm far behind but...

The Fox guy, William Longiness (?) said (paraphrase, I was on phone at time) they were able to stay as long as they were not in iminent danger and would have to go when told

[Dog Gone]

It's pretty clear that Ivan is going to return to Cat 4 this afternoon. Hopefully no higher than that. As it approaches shore it will have less volumes of hot water to draw on, but that's the only I'm seeing that could weaken him slightly before landfall.

[TheLion]

"They keep reporting "moving north" (and have been doing so now for over 3 hours!) and yet, the component of motion is clearly NNW. What *is* up with that?"



Maybe it is an optical allusion....been noticing the same thing.

[joesnuffy]

It aint gonna be a bullet...it's gonna be a claymore mine..

[Tuxedo]

Except it moved from 88.0W to 88.2W in the past three hours. I would not call that N, but NNW.

[GOP_1900AD]

Looks like a different image now, no longer looking at the road. Dark and ominous sky at astronimical noon!

[nwctwx]

Decoded Message:

Storm IVAN: Observed By AF #963
Storm #09 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 123KT (141.5mph 227.8km/h) In SE Quadrant At 1427Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 110.7KT (127.3mph 205.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks:
Date/Time of Recon Report: Wednesday, September 15, 2004 9:12:00 AM (Wed, 15 Sep 2004 16:12:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 27° 31' N 88° 10' W (27.5°N 88.2°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2577m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
No Bearing From Center To Estimated Surface Winds Was Measured
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 98KT (112.7mph 181.5km/h) From 290°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 014nm (16.1 miles) From Center At Bearing 188°
Minimum pressure: 939mb (27.73in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 40 nm (46.0 mi 74.1km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 3nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[TheLion]

Highways are jammed....are these people going to get out in time?

[southriver4]

Don't know if you were here in 1996 - big flooding in Greene and Madison, just north of Charlottesville. It was just so surreal to see Red Cross Disaster truck in front of my house. South River Road impassable for days. Graves Mountain, Hood, too. Another example: maybe the Nelson County story of Camille goes without saying. Hundreds of lives lost there from big water down the mountain. Yep. Flood. Bad.

[LadyPilgrim]

We're here in Bham and the reports are that we will have tropical force winds tomorrow.

We have heard a lot of folks are staying put in Mobile and Destin and Fairhope. I'm concerned for all of them.

I would not stay in that kind of wind. We've had 65 mile a hour winds on this mountain where we live. Our brick house shuddered! I don't think I would stay anywhere around where there are 150 mile an hour winds!

We have hunkered everything down here. Taken down our flags, layed down outside funiture, and brought in what wasn't heavy, and are going to get batteries and groceries, in a short-short!

[Gabz]

It's a damn parade:

And to think I have always loved parades.

Not anymore....Good Grief.

[GOP_1900AD]

Whitecaps on the river now on this one.

[BureaucratusMaximus]

What *is* up with that?

Some people just think that if you tell a lie long enough....it will happen, even if the opposite is logically and physically obvious.

[Types_with_Fist]

It's trying to head straight up the Mississippi River.