Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[NCC-1701]

If New Orleans gets the predicted flooding, the Saints/49ers game may be rescheduled. If the Superdome structure survives, the interior may be flooded to the point where the field is unplayable plus the enclosed odors may preclude any event in there until it's aired out. This is just my opinion, not being from the area. Just seems logical. Besides, who would be in the mood for ANY game or event when there are more serious problems to be dealt with. I hope and pray that all of you in harms way makes it through with as minimal damage as possible. Good luck and God speed.

[lainie]

IRLP Hurricane Net is running now. http://24.11.39.91:7500/listen.pls

[The Right Stuff]

I did not hear about the rapes - please enlighten and give references, I will see that it gets out around here!

[mhking]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 53
Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on September 15, 2004

 
...Large and dangerous Hurricane Ivan moving northward toward the
Gulf Coast...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to
Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and
Lake Pontchartrain.  A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within
the next 24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to
west of Grand Isle.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City
Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to
Yankeetown Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.

 
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 27.3 north...longitude 88.0 west or about 235 miles south
of Mobile Alabama.

 
Ivan is moving toward the north near 13 mph...and this motion is
expected to continue over the next 24 hours.  On the forecast
track...the center of Ivan is expected to reach the coast during
the very early morning hours on Thursday.

 
Ivan continues as as a extremely dangerous category four hurricane
on the Saffir/Simpson scale hurricane scale...with maximum sustained
winds near 135 mph...with higher gusts.  Some fluctuations in
intensity are expected during the next 24 hours...but Ivan is
expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category
three or higher.  Occupants of high-rise buildings within the
Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those
experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category
higher at the top of a 30-story building.  After landfall...
hurricane force winds could to spread inland up to 100 miles near
the path of the center.  

Ivan is a large hurricane...with hurricane force winds extending
outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force
winds extending outward up to 290 miles.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  939 mb...27.73 inches.

 
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced
where onshore flow occurs west of the center.  

 
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely
elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

 
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

 
Isolated tornadoes are possible beginning late this afternoon in
southern Alabama...the Florida Panhandle...and southwestern
Georgia.  

Repeating the 10 am CDT position...27.3 N... 88.0 W.  Movement
toward...north near 13 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 939 mb.

 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

 
$$

[Strategerist]

We'll see. My point was the general misleading/untruths/sensationalistic and "sensitive" reporting from our media. Nevertheless...its like TWC wants the g-ddamned thing to hit Florida.

Saw an endless series of moronic headlines in the Mainstream media today "Ivan headed for New Orleans" "Ivan aims at New Orleans.

NHC has NEVER had a forecast track for Ivan over New Orleans, and the model consensus has never been anywhere NEAR New Orleans; only models that ever showed a direct hit there were crappy unreliable ones, and even those no longer show a New Orleans hit.

But, the ghoulish fascination with the New Orleans "worst case scenarios" drove the media, and, frankly, a lot of board posters here.

[Types_with_Fist]

The problem is there WAS NO CAMILLE hurricane party; it's a myth.

Is that right? I recall they even made a TV-movie about that in the early 70s. The guy who threw the party and hid from authorities was played by that guy who played Seargant Carter on Gomer Pyle. I guess that helped the myth along too.

[AntiGuv]

I'm neutral on whether or not it was a myth. Mary Ann Gerlach never said everyone in the apartments was part of the party. She said a dozen people were gathering for that and that another dozen were elsewhere in the apartments. The other survivor (I forget his name) who said there was no party may simply not have known about the party. Mary Ann also never claimed to be the only Richelieu survivor, but because she got so much press coverage many assumed that since they never heard about the other two.

[gopwinsin04]

Juding from the past problems that the Superdome has had with its exterior, I doubt it will escape without serious damage..

[txhurl]

atlantic winds

I have four of these frozen in time starting from 48 hours ago. Ivan does NOT appear to fear the dark, ?cold? spots (he's right on top of one right now, didn't avoid it) but does seem repelled by the oval wind delta pockets.. this latest to me still suggests NOLA. Course, I'm probably reading it all wrong. Somebody correct me.

[Quilla]

I love New Orleans. My father attended Loyola and we'd visit there two to three times a year until his death six years ago. I've only been back once since then. He left me an apartment in the Garden District, but it seems we're always to busy working to take vacations these days. Does anyone know, is the Garden District in as much danger of flooding as the French Quarter? Our place is on St. Charles about half way between Lee Circle and Audubon Park.

[lainie]

Thank you mhking!

[Chemist_Geek]

Ivan is so darn big, though, that the exact point of landfall and the exact eye track are almost irrelevant.

[Strategerist]

http://www.upress.state.ms.us/features/camille/interview.html

"Q) How satisfying was it to get to the truth about the myth of the "hurricane party" at Richelieu Manor Apartments?

A) It was very satisfying to piece together the story of what actually took place at the Richelieu before and during Camille. One of the survivors of the complex, Mary Ann Gerlach, created the myth of the hurricane party in numerous interviews she gave after the storm. She also may have created a misperception that she was the Richelieu's lone survivor. Other Richelieu survivors, however, including Ben Duckworth and Richard Keller, were irritated and hurt by those erroneous reports that were perpetuated over the years. Duckworth made his feelings known in several newspaper interviews, providing a more accurate picture of what happened at the Richelieu. I also received an e-mail message from Keller during my research that backed Duckworth's account. Keller's wife, Luane, died in the storm. Consequently, I was able to tell the real story. They and other residents had spent much of that Sunday, the 17th, helping the apartment managers move automobiles to high ground and generally preparing the complex for the storm's onslaught. Then, they huddled together in fear and prayer in a third-floor apartment as the building crumbled and disappeared beneath them."

[AntiGuv]

Richard Keller. That's the name. Keller is the one who many years later stated there was no party.

[Gabz]

That tells me a fair amopunt of folks in NOLA did pay attention to the Mayor's words the other day.

I'm going crazy here - my cable went out and the only radio station I can get is the local country station that only does a 2 minute CNN update at the top of the hour.

mhking gave a link for streaming video earlier - but my puter can't handle it.

anyone have a link for online audio of all news/talk radio? And I don't care where in the country it is!!!

[Strategerist]

It makes a HUGE difference if you're on the east or west side of the eye.

[BureaucratusMaximus]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1214617/posts

[mhking]

and now an immenent major hurricane, that a common man with some common sense can see that it will hit NO and cause major damage and loss of life. And its not even coming from CNN/SeeBS/etc, its from the weather channel for God sakes!

Just finished watching a presser from the NO mayor.

They are as prepared as they can be. Their current info has the storm going straight into Mobile. Based on that, sustained winds will not exceed hurricane force, some gusts will get to that point, however.

Anticipated lake surge from Lake Ponchartrain is only about 5-7 feet; this wouldn't overwhelm the levee system.

Provided there is no additional westward jog (they are actually expecting no jog or an eastward one if any), NO will be spared the worst of this storm.

The mayor emphasized that any residents riding this out should have access to their second story, and to be prepared for rising water. They are set to decide within the hour whether or not they will open any additional shelters (including the Superdome).

[mhking]

Still checking for other links; I've got WWL-TV running at http://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv

I do know that radio stations in Montgomery and Birmingham will be simulcasting local radio in those locales as the storm goes inland. But so far, I'm having a rough time finding local radio streams for the affected area outside of the WWL-TV link.

[Dog Gone]

It doesn't really matter whether they were having a party or not. They thought they were safe in the third floor suite. Whether they shared a few beers is irrelevant to the fact it's insanity to ride out a major hurricane on the beach.